Empirical Bayes rules and Gaussian processes

In this paper we study empirical Bayes (e.B.) rules from a viewpoint which has not yet got any attention in the literature. Since an e.B. estimator can be seen as an estimate of an unknown function, namely the true Bayes estimator, it is natural to consider e.B. estimators as stochastic processes. In this paper we make a first attempt in the direction of this approach. For a certain class of e.B. estimators for the continuous one-parameter exponential family, we investigate the global behaviour on finite intervals. It is shown that the difference between the e.B. and the true Bayes estimator can be represented as a certain type of Gaussian process plus a remainder which is uniformly of smaller order. Several applications of this result are given.     

Scarcity and consumer choice behavior

Two experiments are performed to test hypotheses derived from commodity theory. Commodity theory promotes a psychological conceptualization of traditionally economic variables such as supply, demand and utility. The theory concerns itself mainly with the effect of restricted availability upon the valuation of communications, but in the present paper the effect of restricted availability and attainability on the preference for material goods (recipe books) is investigated.The first experiment was designed to test the effect of degree of availability (low, middle or high) and cause of unavailability (accidental unavailability, unavailability due to popularity, unavailability due to limited supply and unavailability due to both limited supply and popularity) on the choice between three recipe books in a simulated product test. The results suggest that the theory is valid only for attractive products. For subjects who were not attracted to the product this relationship was reversed (they avoided choosing the scarce product), indicating the arousal of an ‘altruism’ motive in the experimental setting.The second experiment was designed to test the effect of attainability (attainable, unattainable changed to attainable and unattainable) and cause of unattainability (accidental, popularity, limited supply and both limited supply and popularity) on the same kind of choice. The results again suggest that commodity theory is valid only for subjects attracted to the good, and only for the restricted attainability situation. For subjects not attracted to the product field no treatment effects were found. Commodity theory makes no clear prediction of the effects of unattainability, so reactance theory was used to predict the effects of this variable. The hypothesis that an unattainable good is valued more than an attainable good had to be rejected. A possible explanation based on the occurrence of frustration in this condition is discussed.     

The use of canonical analysis

The first part of this non-technical review of canonical analysis is concerned with the principle, the data requirements, the interpretation, the evaluation and the application in consumer research of canonical analysis. In this context, concepts as canonical correlation, weights, loadings and scores are explained. Their interrelationships are discussed. Then the characteristics of specific forms of canonical analysis: canonical correlation, canonical regression, redundancy analysis and partial canonical analysis are discussed. Their different application properties are emphasized. The last part consists of an application of canonical correlation analysis for brand positioning. Here the relationship with discriminant analysis is illustrated. Furthermore the usage of canonical analysis for optimal scaling purposes is illustrated for the same example.     

EMPIRICAL FEATURES OF THE SECOND-GENERATION TARGET ZONE MODELS: MEAN-REVERTING FUNDAMENTALS AND ENDOGENOUS DEVALUATION RISK

We show that within Bertola and Svensson's second-generation target zone model, mean-reverting interventions and endogenous devaluation risk are closely interrelated. Over the period 1983–93 we analyze the degree of mean reversion in the underlying fundamental process as well as the term structure of interest rate differentials vis-à-vis Germany for six Exchange Rate Mechanism currencies. For Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands, and for Belgium after 1990 our estimates are broadly in line with the first-generation target zone model, whereas those for France and Italy are in accordance with the model that allows for endogenous devaluation risk. ( JEL F3 1, E43)     

Policies for older volunteers: A study of Germany and Italy, 1990–2008

Older people increase their well-being and contribute to the community when they volunteer. Therefore, policy-makers sometimes consider supporting older volunteers. However, they reach different conclusions on whether they should introduce policies for older volunteers, and on what policy would be the most suitable. This article studies how policies for older volunteers emerged in Germany and Italy, both countries having one of the oldest populations in the world. It explores the political discourse on older volunteers, and how this discourse translates into policies. To do this, the article presents data collected in expert interviews and document analysis. Findings show that German policy-makers stress the contribution of volunteering to older people's well-being and have introduced policies for older volunteers. Italian policy-makers, in contrast, frame older volunteers as social service providers and have decided not to single out specific age groups in their policies for volunteers. Moreover, the policies are influenced by the policy-makers' perceptions and path-dependencies, meaning policies and institutions that were introduced in the past. These findings suggest that whether or not policies for older volunteers emerge depends less on the characteristics of the older population and more on the society and its political traditions.     

New forms of writing,new visual competencies

This article discusses two crucial issues in the social semiotics of visual communication. The first is the move from accounts of specific semiotic modes towards an integrated multimodal approach to visual communication in which the analysis of images becomes less central than the analysis of semiotic resources such as composition, movement and colour, which are common to a range of semiotic modes including images, graphics, typography, fashion, product design, exhibition design and architecture. The second is a new emphasis on the discourses, practices and technologies that regulate the use of semiotic resources, and on studying the take‐up of semiotic resources by users in relation to these regulatory discourses, practices and technology. Here, the article will discuss a number of semiotic ‘regimes’, including codification, tradition, expertise, best practice or role modelling, and technological control. The article ends with a discussion of the way normative discourses are built into the latest visual communication technologies (e.g. PowerPoint, HTML, Photoshop, Illustrator) and an affirmation of the need for a critical and well‐contextualised semiotics of visual technology.     

Assessing Maladaptive Responses to the Stress of Being at Risk of HIV Infection among HIV-Negative Gay Men in New York City

The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties and preliminary validity of a newly developed 16-item measure to assess maladaptive responses to the stress of being at risk for HIV infection among HIV-negative gay men. The measure consisted of three factors: (a) fatalistic beliefs about maintaining an HIV-negative serostatus, (b) reduced perceived severity of HIV infection due to advances in medical treatment of HIV and AIDS, and (c) negative affective states associated with the risk of HIV infection. A total of 285 HIV-negative gay men at a counseling program in New York City participated in the study. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor model as an acceptable model fit: non-normed fit index = .91, comparative fit index = .92, goodness-of-fit index = .90, and root mean square error of approximation = .07. The measure and its subscales obtained in this sample achieved adequate internal consistency coefficients. Construct validity was supported by significant and positive associations with internalized homophobia, depression, self-justifications for the last unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), and actual UAI with casual sex partners. Understanding the dynamics of maladaptive responses to the epidemic and intense anxieties elicited by HIV risk among HIV-negative gay men living in a place of high seroprevalence provides useful information to guide psychosocial interventions in the population.     

The business cycle and industrial injuries in British manufacturing over a quarter of a century: continuities in industrial injury research

Constructs a time-series for fatalities in British manufacturing for 1960-85. Examines the relation between the business cycle and industrial injury rate and finds this to be pro-cyclical whether tested against a rate for employees or for total operative hours at risk. Points to the possible contribution of changes in the engagement rate, employment-output ratio, capacity utilisation, vintage of machinery.