Industrial injuries in British manufacturing industry and cyclical effects: continuities and discontinuities in industrial injury research

An article appeared in The Sociological Review for May 1990 by Steve Tombs that bore the same title as an earlier one by me (‘Industrial injuries in British manufacturing industry’ May 1986) and which took as its starting point my ‘The business cycle and industrial injuries’ which appeared in August 1989. It is argued here that Tombs's analysis does not represent the step forward that might have been hoped. It is for example extremely important in the analysis of industrial injury rates to pay careful attention to what injury rates of different degrees of severity might measure. Tombs's article is shown to be technically deficient in that he makes mistakes both of fact and interpretation in his treatment of the all reported (or minor) injury rate. Moreover, Tombs advances the claim — in the context of reference to ‘a pure “business cycle” argument à la Nicholsw’ — that ‘a generalised discussion of [business] cycles obscures important aspects of the political economy within individual cycles. In particular, the strength of the labour movement is related to the incidence of accidents at work’. For the record, it is also spelt out below that this represents an unwarranted interpretation of my own position.     

Specific relationships between psychosocial job conditions and job-related stress: A three-level analytic approach

This cross-sectional questionnaire study presents a multi-level analysis on 2565 workers in 188 departments in 36 organizations in the Netherlands. A three-level model is used in which individual workers are nested within departments, which in turn are nested within organizations. Research questions concern (1) the amount and distribution of variance in job-related stress explained for the three levels in the study (individuals, departments, organizations), and (2) the specificity of relationships between psychosocial job demands and job-related stress in the three-level model. Well-being showed slightly more raw variance to be explained at supra-individual levels than strain. The full regression model explained about 35% of the total variance in both work-related strain and well-being. Psychosocial job conditions did not exceed the expected amount of 10 to 15% contribution to this explained variance. These results do not differ from comparable studies that do not use multi-level analysis. The variance distribution in the full model, however, showed unexplained variance to be located at the individual level for both strain and well-being, and at the departmental level only for well-being. This last finding shows a direction for possible improvement of work stress models. Specificity of relationships was also shown: psychological job demands were more strongly related to strain, whereas job content variables (i.e. job variety, job control) were more strongly related to well-being. Results also suggested that social support was more strongly associated with well-being than with strain. Well-being appeared to have a more widely varying range of predictors than strain.     

Signs of change in Turkey's working class: workers' age-related perceptions in the modern manufacturing sector

This paper explores the possible effects of the increasing exposure to modernity on younger workers in some sectors of developing countries with special reference to those employed in advanced manufacturing in Turkey. In recent decades Turkey has undergone considerable urbanization, improvements in literacy and rising levels of formal education. The paper systematically examines differences in the work-related attitudes and expectations, commitment and aspirations of younger and older workers, who have been exposed to these processes to different degrees. It is broadly confirmed that younger workers have higher expectations and aspirations that make them relatively less satisfied with a number of aspects of their work and which are likely to make for a less committed more critical workforce.     

How Dare to Demand This from Volunteers! The Impact of Illegitimate Tasks

The present study examined the effect of illegitimate tasks (Semmer et al. Appl Psychol Int Rev 59:70–96, 2010) within the volunteer context. A total of 191 Red Cross volunteers were surveyed to reveal the impact of unreasonable and unnecessary tasks on the volunteers’ work engagement and intent to remain at the non-profit organization (NPO). To shed light on the process through which illegitimate tasks affect outcomes, the mediating role of self-determined motivation was explored. Furthermore, the volunteers’ role orientation was assumed to moderate the relationship between illegitimate tasks and outcomes. The results showed that unreasonable tasks directly decreased the volunteers’ intent to remain. Unnecessary tasks, in contrast, had a more subtle effect in that they reduced the self-determined motivation of volunteers. Also, evidence was found for the moderating influence of the volunteers’ role orientation: Whereas unreasonable tasks were equally harmful for both groups, unnecessary tasks more strongly affected those volunteers who expressed more organizational ownership.     

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models

Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50% in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed.     

Predictive Accuracy Gain From Disaggregate Sampling in ARIMA Models

We compare the forecast accuracy of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models based on data observed with high and low frequency, respectively. We discuss how, for instance, a quarterly model can be used to predict one quarter ahead even if only annual data are available, and we compare the variance of the prediction error in this case with the variance if quarterly observations were indeed available. Results on the expected information gain are presented for a number of ARIMA models including models that describe the seasonally adjusted gross national product (GNP) series in the Netherlands. Disaggregation from annual to quarterly GNP data has reduced the variance of short-run forecast errors considerably, but further disaggregation from quarterly to monthly data is found to hardly improve the accuracy of monthly forecasts.     

Self-modelling warping functions

Summary.  The paper introduces a semiparametric model for functional data. The warping functions are assumed to be linear combinations of q common components, which are estimated from the data (hence the name 'self-modelling'). Even small values of q provide remarkable model flexibility, comparable with nonparametric methods. At the same time, this approach avoids overfitting because the common components are estimated combining data across individuals. As a convenient by-product, component scores are often interpretable and can be used for statistical inference (an example of classification based on scores is given).     

Beyond cheap labour: trade unions and development in the Turkish metal industry

The ability of developing countries to export to more developed parts of the world is often associated with cheap labour. But such very obvious economic advantage is not always the end of the story. A fuller account needs to consider the wider institutional context. In some instances trade unionism can be an important part of this. This paper addresses trade unionism with specific reference to workers employed in large firms in Turkey that are significant exporters of consumer goods to the European market. The union examined is the largest union in the metal industry, an industry that is a driving force in the Turkish economy, and a major centre of trade unionism with over half a million of Turkey's three million trade unionists. The particular ‐ autocratic ‐ character of this union is critically examined and located with reference to wider forces of political economy and the specific constraints and difficulties to which its members are subject. Finally, the significance of this sort of trade unionism for economic ‐ and socio‐political ‐ development is discussed.     

Ethical issues in tracking cellular telephones at an event

Early in 2007, the CSIR conducted an experiment to track the cellular telephones of a small group of people as they moved to and from an event, to test the viability of using such tracking to provide the participants with useful traffic information. This project raised a number of ethical issues, which prompted this paper and which we discuss here. These include:

• the ethics of modelling data, including the treatment of research participants;

• privacy and surveillance issues related to tracking the movement of people;

• the risks inherent in being tracked vs the benefits of being tracked; and

• the ethics related to sending messages to drivers.

We have reviewed the literature on ethics and used the results to assemble a check list of relevant ethical issues, adding a few of our own (i.e. a deontological ethics approach), against which the conduct of this research project was assessed. We also provide an overview of the experiment and the results obtained.