FORECAST EVALUATION OF LIVINGSTON DATA ON INFLATION RATES AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*

Livingston data on expected inflation rates have been used extensively in the financial literature, especially in investgating the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rates; however, the data have not been subjected to a thorough analysis of forecast accuracy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the forecast properties of Livingston data using a wide variety of time and frequency domain methods over an extended sample period and for selected subperiods.     

A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

SOME COMMENTS ON “A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ON MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING”*

We believe there are some serious deficiencies in the Morecroft article on MRP problems which appeared in a recent issue of this journal. The article, at the most, shows that MRP, inappropriately imposed on an existing production system, can result in undesirable system performance. This does not represent a new or startling conclusion. Four problem areas in the article are discussed, and suggested alternative approaches are offered.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*

This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels.     

Homogamy by education and migration status in Monterrey,Mexico: changes and continuities over time

This paper reviews changes in homogamy by migration status and educational level in Monterrey, Mexico, through the analysis of marriage patterns for two cohorts of men born in 1905–1934 and 1940–1969. Results show a significant increase in educational homogamy, as well as in homogamy by rural origins. The changes suggest that education has played an increasingly important role in the process of mate selection, although certain particularistic characteristics, such as being a rural immigrant, are still important in marriage formation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the relationship between homogamy and social stratification.

Estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point

Recent work on point processes includes studying posterior convergence rates of estimating a continuous intensity function. In this article, convergence rates for estimating the intensity function and change‐point are derived for the more general case of a piecewise continuous intensity function. We study the problem of estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point using non‐parametric Bayesian methods. An Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to obtain estimates of the intensity function and the change‐point which is illustrated using simulation studies and applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 604–618; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Integrated nested Laplace approximation for the analysis of count data via the combined model: A simulation study

The combined model accounts for different forms of extra-variability and has traditionally been applied in the likelihood framework, or in the Bayesian setting via Markov chain Monte Carlo. In this article, integrated nested Laplace approximation is investigated as an alternative estimation method for the combined model for count data, and compared with the former estimation techniques. Longitudinal, spatial, and multi-hierarchical data scenarios are investigated in three case studies as well as a simulation study. As a conclusion, integrated nested Laplace approximation provides fast and precise estimation, while avoiding convergence problems often seen when using Markov chain Monte Carlo.     

Vegetation on and around large-scale buildings positively influences native tropical bird abundance and bird species richness

High population growth in the tropics is driving urbanisation, removing diverse natural ecosystems. This is causing native species to suffer while introduced synanthropes flourish. City planners are developing urban greenspace networks, in part trying to address this issue. Architects contribute to these greenspace networks by designing elevated and ground level green spaces on large-scale buildings. However, little evidence is available on whether building green spaces support native fauna. This is true for birds in tropical Singapore that support important ecosystem services and have existence value. Therefore, in this study, we conducted bird surveys and statistical analyses to determine, if and how vegetation on three building green space types (ground gardens, roof gardens and green walls) have a positive impact on native or introduced bird species. We found that elevated greenery (roof gardens and green walls) on large-scale buildings supported a higher richness of birds and abundance of urban native birds than control roofs and walls without vegetation. Ground gardens supported similar levels of native species as roof gardens but also a larger proportion of generalist synanthropes. However, we found no tropical forest habitat specialists across any space type. Therefore, we recommend roof gardens and ground gardens as a potential space for urban natives outside of a less competitive ground-level urban environment. Our study also found certain building design elements (height of elevated space, presence of specific plants) supported different species groups. Therefore, we suggest that these ecological requirements for different species groups are considered when designing a building’s green space.

     

Model-based clustering with sparse covariance matrices

Statistics and Computing - Finite Gaussian mixture models are widely used for model-based clustering of continuous data. Nevertheless, since the number of model parameters scales quadratically with...