Study of a Markov model for a high-quality dependent process

For high-quality processes, non-conforming items are seldom observed and the traditional p (or np) charts are not suitable for monitoring the state of the process. A type of chart based on the count of cumulative conforming items has recently been introduced and it is especially useful for automatically collected one-at-a-time data. However, in such a case, it is common that the process characteristics become dependent as items produced one after another are inspected. In this paper, we study the problem of process monitoring when the process is of high quality and measurement values possess a certain serial dependence. The problem of assuming independence is examined and a Markov model for this type of process is studied, upon which suitable control procedures can be developed.     

Another look at fertility and social mobility

This is a response to Basil Zimmer's contention that the classical hypothesis connecting social mobility with fertility was rejected in the Princeton Fertility Study because of a faulty mode of analysis. Arguing from the findings of a strong association in a sample of Aberdeen women, Zimmer asserts that if social origin and destination were taken into account, the same relationship would have emerged in the U.S. data. The evidence from the Princeton Study is reviewed and new evidence presented which confirms the original findings of no relationship.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE GROWTH ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVE

A positive relationship between FDI and economic growth under two economic conditions has been estimated: a sufficient level of human capital and well-developed financial markets, respectively. However, these two conditions can be fundamentally different catalysts for FDI to promote economic growth in the perspective of growth accounting. Using data from 69 countries over 1970–1989, we find that FDI promotes productivity growth only when the host country reaches a threshold level of human capital; and FDI promotes capital growth only when a certain level of financial development is achieved. ( JEL F21)     

Embedded cultural values and international transaction cost advantages

Culturally embedded differences in self-interested behavior and perceptions of trust violate the universal assumption of moral hazard held by transaction cost economic theorists. A model of transaction cost advantage is derived and propositions developed using the cultural value diversity literature to test the universal assumptions of transaction cost economics.     

Gender, Race, and Perception of Environmental Health Risks

This paper reports the results of a national survey in which perceptions of environmental health risks were measured for 1275 white and 214 nonwhite persons. The results showed that white women perceived risks to be much higher than did white men, a result that is consistent with previous studies. However, this gender difference was not true of nonwhite women and men, whose perceptions of risk were quite similar. Most striking was the finding that white males tended to differ from everyone else in their attitudes and perceptions–on average, they perceived risks as much smaller and much more acceptable than did other people. These results suggest that sociopolitical factors such as power, status, alienation, and trust are strong determiners of people's perception and acceptance of risks.     

Final report of the Color Additive Scientific Review Panel

The Color Additives Scientific Review Panel considered whether there was information sufficient to perform a carcinogenic risk assessment on the colors D&C Red No. 19 (R-19), D&C Red No. 37 (R-37), D&C Orange No. 17 (O-17), D&C Red No. 9 (R-9), D&C Red No. 8 (R-8) and FD&C Red No. 3 (R-3) and to evaluate the assessments sent to FDA as part of the petitions for use of the colors for drug and external uses by the Cosmetic, Toiletry and Fragrance Association (CTFA). There is a lack of human data concerning the colors for making a human health assessment, so the assessments are based upon the extrapolation of animal data. The risk assessments are determined for exposure to single chemicals. Excluded from consideration are possible effects from exposure to multiple chemicals, such as co-carcinogenesis, promotion, synergism, antagonism, etc. In the light of recent efforts in establishing a consensus in risk assessment, the Panel has determined that the CTFA assessments for R-10, O-17, and R-9 are consistent with present acceptable usages, although it questions some of the assumptions used in the assessments. The Panel identified a number of general assumptions made, and discusses their validity, their impact on total uncertainty, and the potential options to address the gaps in understanding that necessitate the assumption. The Panel also derived revised risk estimates using more "reasonable" assumptions than "worst-case" situations, for 90th percentile and average exposure. For those assumptions that are easily quantifiable, the Panel's estimates are less than an order of magnitude lower than the CTFA risk estimates, indicating that the underestimates and overestimates of the CTFA risk estimates tend to balance each other. The impact of most of the assumptions is not quantifiable. The assessment for R-3 is complicated by the fact that there is no good skin penetrance study for this color. It was assumed that the penetrance is similar to that of another water-soluble xanthene color, R-19. It is expected that the absorption of the color is not likely to exceed that of the smaller molecule, R-19. Therefore, the risk estimates are similar to the CTFA estimates, but with different reasoning. The estimates for R-8 and R-37 are different from the others in that there is a lack of any exposure or toxicological information on these colors.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Biologically Motivated Cancer Risk Models

A two-stage dose response model is proposed for use in cancer risk assessment. The model assumes that transformation probabilities and cellular dynamics are exposure- and time-dependent.     

A Methodology for Seismic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

This methodology begins by quantifying the fragility of all key components and structures in the plant. By means of the logic encoded in the plant event trees and fault trees, the component fragilities are combined to form fragilities for the occurrence of plant damage states or release categories. Combining these, in turn, with the seismicity curves yields the frequencies of those states or releases. Uncertainty is explicitly included at each step of the process.     

How Close Is Close Enough: Public Perceptions of the Risks of Industrial Facilities

Public opinion poll data have consistently shown that the proportion of respondents who are willing to have a nuclear power plant in their own community is smaller than the proportion who agree that more nuclear plants should be built in this country. Respondents' judgments of the minimum safe distance from each of eight hazardous facilities confirmed that this finding results from perceived risk gradients that differ by facility (e.g., nuclear vs. natural gas power plants) and social group (e.g., chemical engineers vs. environmentalists) but are relatively stable over time. Ratings of the facilities on thirteen perceived risk dimensions were used to determine whether any of the dimensions could explain the distance data. Because the rank order of the facilities with respect to acceptable distance was very similar to the rank order on a number of the perceived risk dimensions, it is difficult to determine which of the latter is the critical determinant of acceptable distance if, indeed, there is only one. There were, however, a number of reversals of rank order that indicate that the respondents had a differentiated view of technological risk. Finally, data from this and other studies were interpreted as suggesting that perceived lack of any other form of personal control over risk exposure may be an important factor in stimulating public opposition to the siting of hazardous facilities.