Understanding the etiology of child abuse: A preliminary typology of cases

This paper examines various conceptual approaches to the etiology of child abuse and reports the results of an original study. Data on 99 families with children who were court adjudicated as having suffered non-accidental trauma were analyzed by means of a cluster analysis (hierarchical nearest-neighbor clustering). Four empirically-derived clusters of family/case attributes are described and then discussed as representing separate etiologies of child abuse. The implications of this typology are also discussed as they relate to clinical practice and social policy.     

Migrant cohort size,enforcement effort,and the apprehension of undocumented aliens

This article examines macro-structural conditions that affect time trends in aggregate probabilities of undocumented alien apprehension along the Mexico-US border. We show that the number of migrants attempting to cross the border illegally in a given period and the level of effort expended by the INS to apprehend undocumented migrants are principal determinants of apprehension probabilities. Our findings differ from those in earlier work by Donato, Durand, and Massey who argue that individual, household, and community factors are not significant predictors of apprehension probabilities and conclude that escaping INS detection at the border is essentially a random process unrelated to personal traits or to enforcement provisions of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. Although Donato et al. recognize that apprehension probabilities are affected by the size of the US Border Patrol budget and the number of personnel, they omit these larger structural factors from consideration. Instead, they introduce annual dummy variables to control for macro-structural forces. This approach is unsatisfactory because it confounds the effects of numerous explanatory factors. We conclude that one implication for future research is that it is worth modeling the effects of individuals' characteristics on apprehension probabilities by including as predictors an estimate of the flow of undocumented migrants and measures of INS border enforcement effort. Controlling explicitly for three macrostructural conditions may disclose the importance of some individual-level factors that would otherwise be obscured.     

The political influence of unions and corporations on COPE votes in the U.S. senate, 1979–1988

The political influence of unions and corporations is examined by analyzing Senate roll-call votes on COPE-identified legislation for the period 1979–1988. Union PAC contributions and union membership both have significant positive effects on three different types of COPE legislation: Narrow Union, General Labor, and Non-Labor. In addition, corporate PAC contributions to senators’ opponents reduce their pro-union voting behavior on Narrow Union and General Labor bills. There is no evidence that the political influence of unions in the U.S. is declining.     

MAX WEBER, FORMAL RATIONALITY, AND HEALTH LIFESTYLES

Max Weber's concept of formal rationality and ideas about lifestyles in general are applied to current trends in health lifestyles. The central contribution of Weber's thinking is recognition of the dialectical interplay between formal versus substantive rationality, consumption versus production, choice versus life chances, class similarities versus distinctions, and self-control versus conformity in shaping health life-styles and the reality of their operationalization in the postmodern world. In a largely applied subdiscipline like medical sociology, Weber's work offers a theoretical background on which to enrich our understanding of health lifestyles and grapple with the initial theoretical challenges posed by lifestyle research.     

ATTITUDES TOWARD THE MENTALLY ILL:

Labeling theory posits that people labeled mentally ill experience negative societal reactions. Past research on this question is contradictory, due primarily to methodological problems. This study overcomes some of these problems by having respondents indicate their willingness to interact with a person with a specific mental disorder, or with an identically behaving person with a specific physical disorder. As expected, respondents reject the mentally ill significantly more than identically behaving physically ill persons, as supports labeling theory. Respondents also consider the mentally ill less predictable and to have less positive outcomes than those with physical illness. These beliefs highly correlate with rejection and account for some, but not all, of the effects of label on rejection.     

Public opposition to genetic engineering

Abstract The extent and sources of public opposition to the use of genetic engineering in agricultural production are examined through data from telephone interviews with 220 farmers and 332 nonfarmers living in eight North Carolina counties. A model suggesting that public opposition to genetic engineering is influenced by demographic characteristics mediated by three intervening variables (awareness of genetic engineering, faith in government and industry, and moral objection to genetic engineering) is analyzed. Moral objection is the strongest predictor of opposition. Opposition is also related to lower awareness and less faith in institutions. Women are more likely to oppose genetic engineering than men. Implications of findings are noted.     

What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.     

DEXPERT: an expert system for the design of experiments

DEXPERT is an expert system, built using KEE, for the design and analysis of experiments. From a mathematical model, expected mean squares are computed, tests are determined, and the power of the tests computed. Comparisons between designs are aided by suggestions and verbal interpretations provided by DEXPERT. DEXPERT provides a layout sheet for the collection of the data and then analyzes and interprets the results using analytical and graphical methods.     

水稻生产环节外包决策实证研究——基于江西省稻农水稻种植数据的研究

基于江西省2011年325户稻农和2007年307户同一稻农两年各水稻种植季节内水稻种植8个生产环节的要素投入和要素来源微观数据,实证分析水稻生产环节外包决策,研究发现:不同特征的水稻生产环节间的外包程度有很大差别;不同种植规模的稻农在水稻生产外包的环节上也存在差别;分析稻农水稻生产环节外包决策问题,应在季节层面而非加总的农户层面进行探索。Mvprobit模型的回归结果表明,稻农水稻生产各个环节的外包决策是相关的;对于不同特征的水稻生产环节,影响其外包的因素存在差别。总体而言,增加非农就业机会、提高非农收入水平,以及降低外包价格,均有助于外包比例的提高。     

Leveraging historical data into oncology development programs: Two case studies of phase 2 Bayesian augmented control trial designs

Leveraging historical data into the design and analysis of phase 2 randomized controlled trials can improve efficiency of drug development programs. Such approaches can reduce sample size without loss of power. Potential issues arise when the current control arm is inconsistent with historical data, which may lead to biased estimates of treatment efficacy, loss of power, or inflated type 1 error. Consideration as to how to borrow historical information is important, and in particular, adjustment for prognostic factors should be considered. This paper will illustrate two motivating case studies of oncology Bayesian augmented control (BAC) trials. In the first example, a glioblastoma study, an informative prior was used for the control arm hazard rate. Sample size savings were 15% to 20% by using a BAC design. In the second example, a pancreatic cancer study, a hierarchical model borrowing method was used, which enabled the extent of borrowing to be determined by consistency of observed study data with historical studies. Supporting Bayesian analyses also adjusted for prognostic factors. Incorporating historical data via Bayesian trial design can provide sample size savings, reduce study duration, and enable a more scientific approach to development of novel therapies by avoiding excess recruitment to a control arm. Various sensitivity analyses are necessary to interpret results. Current industry efforts for data transparency have meaningful implications for access to patient‐level historical data, which, while not critical, is helpful to adjust for potential imbalances in prognostic factors.