Estimating prediction error for complex samples

With a growing interest in using non-representative samples to train prediction models for numerous outcomes it is necessary to account for the sampling design that gives rise to the data in order to assess the generalized predictive utility of a proposed prediction rule. After learning a prediction rule based on a non-uniform sample, it is of interest to estimate the rule's error rate when applied to unobserved members of the population. Efron (1986) proposed a general class of covariance penalty inflated prediction error estimators that assume the available training data are representative of the target population for which the prediction rule is to be applied. We extend Efron's estimator to the complex sample context by incorporating Horvitz–Thompson sampling weights and show that it is consistent for the true generalization error rate when applied to the underlying superpopulation. The resulting Horvitz–Thompson–Efron estimator is equivalent to dAIC, a recent extension of Akaike's information criteria to survey sampling data, but is more widely applicable. The proposed methodology is assessed with simulations and is applied to models predicting renal function obtained from the large-scale National Health and Nutrition Examination Study survey. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 204–221; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Leaving Science: Gender Differences in Career Continuity Following a Job Loss

This study investigates gender differences in the postdisplacement experience of nonacademic science and engineering (S&E) workers. Using a pooled sample created from the Displaced Worker Surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008, it finds that (1) this S&E work force is particularly vulnerable to job loss and potential career disruption; (2) displaced female S&E workers are more likely than comparable male workers to exit the work force, a gender difference that is conditional on and explained by marital and parental status; and (3) reemployed female S&E workers are also more likely to leave science for non‐S&E occupations, but this gender difference is limited to unmarried workers. A concluding section discusses the implications of these findings for interpreting gender differences in career outcomes.     

The History of Interest Inventories and Career Assessments in Career Counseling

Interest inventories and career assessments continue to be used to support practitioners as they work to uncover client interests, abilities, skills, motivations, values, and other personal factors that help individuals self‐define and construct their career. The skilled use of career inventories and assessments remains a minimum competency of career service providers' ability to successfully partner with their clients. A history of the evolution of assessment from 1914 through 1974 and considerations for the future of assessment are highlighted to provide historical perspective to inform practitioners as they serve the diverse needs of complex client populations.     

Age and subcultural differences on personal and general beliefs about memory

This study examined age and cultural differences on both personal and general beliefs about memory by comparing three age groups within two subcultures belonging to the same country: Milanese and Sardinian. Two innovative instruments on general and personal beliefs with graphic-rating-scale format (General Beliefs about Memory Instrument and Personal Beliefs about Memory Instrument) and a memory task (recall of 40 words) were administrated to participants. Sardinians held more positive attitudes about the effects of aging on memory reporting a later onset of declining memory ability and control over memory across the life span. They were also more optimistic in rating their global memory efficacy, control, and retrospective change. The two subcultural groups differed in terms of memory performance, with Sardinian individuals outperforming the Milanese. Findings are discussed in relation to the view of aging in different subcultural contexts.     

The romantic self and the politics of internet commercialization

This essay looks at some examples of ways that certain pre-existing imaginary forms of ‘selfhood’ have been culturally mapped onto historically pivotal moments in the Internet’s development. It focuses less on how technologies have shaped culture than on the reverse: on certain ways that culture has shaped society’s embrace of the Internet. What the Internet is and will come to be, the essay suggests, is partly a matter of who we expect to be when we sit down to use it. Specifically, it looks at two key examples of ways that certain pre-existing imaginary forms of selfhood – ways of understanding oneself as a self – have been culturally mapped onto historically pivotal moments in the Internet’s development: the initial explosion of the Internet in the early 1990s and its supporting ethos exemplified by Wired magazine, and the Open Source Movement in the late 1990s. The essay suggests that significant parts of the culture of computing have been not only individualist, but also composed of two distinct if intertwined strands of individualism, romantic and utilitarian, and that their difference has political significance. Like its ancestor, the 1960s counterculture, the case of the computer culture suggests that romantic individualism stands in a tangential relation to capitalist property relations (and the utilitarian ‘I’ they imply), sometimes working in concert with markets and privatization, as was the case in the early 1990s, and sometimes working to call them into question, as was the case towards the end of the 1990s.     

Were UK Culture, Sport and Recreation Charities Prepared for the 2008 Economic Downturn? An Application of Tuckman and Chang’s Measures of Financial Vulnerability

UK charities experienced rapid growth during the middle years of the first decade of the new millennium. The issue investigated in this study is whether the charities took the opportunity to strengthen their financial positions before the economic recession of 2008–2009. Having evaluated, and established the empirical robustness of, Tuckman and Chang’s measures of financial vulnerability, they are used as the basis for constructing a Charities Financial Exposure Index (CFEI). Variants of the index are applied to a panel of more than 300 large UK charities in the Culture, Sport and Recreation sector for the period 2002–2007. The findings are that by 2008 these charities were in a stronger financial position than they had been in 2002 and were therefore better prepared to face the onset of the so-called credit crunch recession.     

Portfolios for learning and assessment: laying the foundations for continuing professional development

Portfolios are widely used in a range of education programmes at different levels in a number of countries. They are also well established at all stages in social work education. However, in the literature there is surprisingly little critical analysis of the application of the portfolio in social work. In this paper the authors' objective is to contribute to professional knowledge about the use of portfolios in social work. The authors are all members of the Higher Education Funding Council Self-Assessment in Professional and Higher Education Project and are concerned to develop self-assessment in social work and enhance the development of life-long learning. They begin by examining the literature about portfolios from the field of education. Findings are then analysed from a small exploratory study of the use of portfolios in practice learning on a Diploma in Social Work course. Five different but related conceptual themes which emerge from the analysis are discussed: compiling the portfolio; issues of evidence; reflection in a context of assessment; the practice teacher and the learning dialogue; and the challenge of assessment. Suggestions are offered for effective portfolio practice.     

THE NATURE OF FUTURE MYTHS: ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE IN SCIENCE FICTION FILM, 1950-1999

Given the need to transform the societal relationship with nature, culture demands analysis for the role it plays in defining nature and the relationship with nature. Important as future myths, the environmental discourse imbedded in popular science fiction films since the 1950s is analyzed toward this end. Cultural studies serves as a theoretical and methodological guide. For the most part, the films resonate with reproductive discourse, degrading nature as less valuable than the civilized and favoring a relationship with nature most beneficial to humanity. Specifically, these films glorify science and technology, portray civilization continuing to fill and dominate the wilderness of space, and devalue nature as hostile and inferior to civilization. Resistant discourse, content which values and demands a more benign relationship with nature, is also present, but is less common and arguably less potent. This finding is interpreted in terms of implications for change in the societal relationship with nature as well as in light of other analyses of culture which find evidence for a shift in culture in an ecological direction.     

Concurrent reductions in psychotropic medication,assault, and physical restraint in two residential treatment programs for youth

Over the past decade, the level of clinical needs of youth in residential treatment has increased significantly. Youth in out-of-home settings typically experience higher levels of psychotropic medication use than their peers living at home, even when controlling for the severity of clinical issues. The purpose of the current study was to examine the effects of an approach to clinically reassess psychotropic medication utilization for youth residing in residential treatment settings while also observing the impact on the youth's need for physical containment. Medication changes were based on a data-informed process, using input from a multi-disciplinary treatment team. Data for 531 youth who were consecutively admitted to one of two non-affiliated intensive residential treatment programs, one in the Midwest and one in New England, was analyzed. Over half of these youth (n = 292, 55%) had their medications reduced during their stay and only 14% (n = 76) were prescribed more medication at discharge than they had been taking at admission. The remainder either saw no change during their stay (n = 104, 20%) or were never on medication at any time (n = 59, 11%). From admission to discharge there was a 62% decrease in the number of assaultive incidents as well as a 72% decrease in the use of physical restraints. These results support the view that residential treatment can provide a treatment milieu that allows for thoughtful reassessment of the clinical basis for behavioral disorders in children that can achieve the dual goals of medication reduction and behavioral stabilization.