Resilience and Survival: Black Teenage Mothers ‘Looked After’ by the State Tell their Stories About their Experience of Care

‘Looked after’ young people are among the most disadvantaged members of our society. While their disadvantaged status should not be ignored, poor outcomes are often emphasised at the expense of good ones. This article reports a study that adopts the concept of resilience to understand the narratives of the participants’ experience of care and foster care. A total of 15 young mothers, aged 16–19 and mainly from black African backgrounds, were interviewed. Despite lacking a ‘secure base’, informants invested in a sense of moral identity and a source of self‐directedness, which enabled them to move from victim of circumstances to individuals who overcome their circumstances.     

The Environmental Consequences of Rural and Urban Population Change: An Exploratory Spatial Panel Study of Forest Cover in the Southern United States, 2001–2006

This exploratory study examines the effects of rural and urban population change on forest cover at the local level across the southern United States. Using county‐level data from the National Land Cover Database and other U.S. government sources, we regressed the total area of forest cover on rural and urban population size in spatial panel models with two‐way fixed effects. When we controlled for several other factors, including the number of forestry operations at the county level, regression results indicate that urban change had no effect, but rural population size was positively related to total forest area, and this effect was most pronounced in and around Georgia. Thus, in areas of the southern United States, rural growth was associated with afforestation, not deforestation. We speculate on how this unusual finding contributes to the debate between ecological modernization and urban political economy implicated in previous cross‐national research.     

PROFIT‐MAXIMIZING GATE REVENUE SHARING IN SPORTS LEAGUES

In this article, I examine how sports leagues can use gate revenue sharing to coordinate talent investments and maximize club profits. Gate revenue sharing reduces incentives to invest in talent. Initially lower investments boost profits, because total costs go down, but investing less also shrinks revenues, which harms profits at higher levels of sharing. The league maximizes profits by setting a sharing rule, which balances these two effects. Gate revenue sharing decreases talent investments more strongly in leagues with heterogeneous rather than homogeneous local market sizes. As a result, the profit‐maximizing level of sharing is higher for relatively homogeneous leagues. This implies that more balanced leagues are expected to share more gate revenues than less balanced leagues. It also explains why gate revenue sharing is widely used in the U.S. major leagues, while it is largely absent in European soccer. (JEL L41, L83)     

A survey on multivariate chi-square distributions and their applications in testing multiple hypotheses

We are concerned with three different types of multivariate chi-square distributions. Their members play important roles as limiting distributions of vectors of test statistics in several applications of multiple hypotheses testing. We explain these applications and consider the computation of multiplicity-adjusted p-values under the respective global hypothesis. By means of numerical examples, we demonstrate how much gain in level exhaustion or, equivalently, power can be achieved with corresponding multivariate multiple tests compared with approaches which are only based on univariate marginal distributions and do not take the dependence structure among the test statistics into account. As a further contribution of independent value, we provide an overview of essentially all analytic formulas for computing multivariate chi-square probabilities of the considered types which are available up to present. These formulas were scattered in the previous literature and are presented here in a unified manner.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation procedures for binary and continuous responses utilizing a gain function

One of the main aims of early phase clinical trials is to identify a safe dose with an indication of therapeutic benefit to administer to subjects in further studies. Ideally therefore, dose‐limiting events (DLEs) and responses indicative of efficacy should be considered in the dose‐escalation procedure. Several methods have been suggested for incorporating both DLEs and efficacy responses in early phase dose‐escalation trials. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a Bayesian adaptive approach based on one binary response (occurrence of a DLE) and one continuous response (a measure of potential efficacy) per subject. A logistic regression and a linear log‐log relationship are used respectively to model the binary DLEs and the continuous efficacy responses. A gain function concerning both the DLEs and efficacy responses is used to determine the dose to administer to the next cohort of subjects. Stopping rules are proposed to enable efficient decision making. Simulation results shows that our approach performs better than taking account of DLE responses alone. To assess the robustness of the approach, scenarios where the efficacy responses of subjects are generated from an E _max model, but modelled by the linear log–log model are also considered. This evaluation shows that the simpler log–log model leads to robust recommendations even under this model showing that it is a useful approximation to the difficulty in estimating E _max model. Additionally, we find comparable performance to alternative approaches using efficacy and safety for dose‐finding. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding preferences for tree attributes: the relative effects of socio-economic and local environmental factors

Urban plant biodiversity is influenced by both the physical environment and attitudes and preferences of urban residents for specific plant types. Urban residents are assumed to be disconnected from their immediate environment, and cultural and societal factors have been emphasized over environmental factors in studies of landscaping choices. However, we postulate that local climatic and environmental factors can also affect preferences for plant attributes. Therefore, spatial and temporal patterns in urban tree biodiversity may be driven not only by the direct effect of environmental variables on plant function, but also by the effect of environmental variables on attitudes toward trees and associated choices about which types of trees to plant. Here, we tested the relative effects of socio-economic and local environmental factors on preferences toward tree attributes in five counties in southern California in and surrounding Los Angeles, based on 1,029 household surveys. We found that local environmental factors have as strong an effect on preferences for tree attributes as socio-economic factors. Specifically, people located in hotter climates (average maximum temperature 25.1 °C) were more likely to value shade trees than those located in cooler regions (23.1 °C). Additionally, people located in desert areas were less likely to consider trees to be important in their city compared with people located in naturally forested areas. Overall, our research demonstrates the inherent connections between local environmental factors and perceptions of nature, even in large modern cities. Accounting for these factors can contribute to the growing interest in understanding patterns of urban biodiversity.     

Time to Diagnosis: Accounting for Differential Endpoint Follow-up in Multi-Cohort Studies

Cox regression is widely used to analyze discrete survival time data. Differential endpoint follow-up across sub-cohorts where distribution of a covariate varies may cause typical estimators to be biased or inefficient. We demonstrate that with Cardiovascular Health Study data for incident type 2 diabetes. Two cohorts with extremely different race distribution have differential follow-up for fasting glucose levels. We study various scenarios of Cox regression. We suggest an alternative approach, Poisson generalized estimating equations with an offset to accommodate the differential follow-up. We use simulations to contrast the methods.     

西方公民社会观适合中国吗?

20世纪90年代以来,公民社会逐渐成为学术研究热点。由于这一问题与当代中国社会政治变迁密切相关,因而引起国内外中国问题专家的广泛关注和讨论。尽管中国出现了社会分化、利益重组以及利益代表的重构,但是公民社会以独立于国家的自治和独立于传统结构如家族、单位或家庭的自治为前提,涉及公民结构及其思维模式的形成等诸多因素,其形成条件在中国才显露征兆,中国现在还没有产生公民社会。把西方语境中的公民社会观援引到中国,可能会出现根本不适用的情况。     

The weight of the rich: improving surveys using tax data

The Journal of Economic Inequality - Household surveys often fail to capture the top tail of income and wealth distributions, as evidenced by studies based on tax data. Yet to date there is no...