Formulating the mess: The role of decision aids in problem formulation

Analytic decision aids have been criticized by some practitioners for their inability to address questions of problem formulation. These aids typically begin with the assumption that a problem has been recognized and stated, and that the task of the sequential step-wise analysis process is to indicate the optimal strategy in terms of a specified choice criterion. Writers such as Ackoff, Mason & Mitroff and Raiffa have argued that this approach may lead to solving the wrong problem, particularly when applied to ill-structured, complex organizational decision problems. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more thorough understanding of the nature of problem formulation and the use of techniques for assisting decision-makers in this process. The paper attempts first to develop an understanding of the process of organizational problem formulation through the examination of current literature and research. This is seen to be a necessary prerequisite for discussing the value of decision aids for problem formulation. Second, attention is focused on aids to problem formulation. Included is discussion about the matching of problem to problem type, creativity stimulants, dialectical inquiry and devil's advocate approaches, as well as the role of formal analysis as a stimulant for a policy dialogue process. Finally, the relationships between the various approaches are examined and a synthetic model for their use in problem formulation is suggested.     

Developmental differences in baserate estimates of social behaviors and attitudes

This study examined the development of baserate estimation skills for everyday social events and attitudes. Subjects in grades one, three, and six responded to questions concerning their own rates of behavior and attitudes, and their estimates of baserates of behaviors and attitudes for their classmates. The findings indicate a general increase in accuracy for the estimation of baserates throughout the elementary school years. In addition, younger subjects were less likely to make similar estimates for themselves and their classmates than were older respondents. Developmental changes in estimation accuracy are discussed in relation to task content, use of the response scale, correspondence between self-reports and estimates, and sample variability.     

Partner effects in social interaction

A person's behavior during social interaction is due not only to the person's dispositional characteristics but is also determined by his or her social partner. If a person consistently elicits the same behavior from others, the person has apartner effect. Partner effects in affect, cognition, and behavior are examined. Partner effects in behavior are presumed to be caused by partner effects in affect and cognition. A social relations analysis of data from six studies which meet rather strict methodological criteria suggests that partner effects are present in affect and cognition but are fairly weak. Further, partner effects are hardly evident at all on behavioral observations of friendliness and dominance, but are more evident in nonverbal behavior, especially gaze. The low level of partner effects is hypothesized to be due to the context in which the research was done, the degree of acquaintance between interaction partners, and the moderating effect of individual differences.This research was supported in part by a grant to the first author from the National Institute of Mental Health, MH 40295-01. We would like to thank Nancy Bernstein who assisted the first author in the collection of data. Also we thank Donald Fiske and Starkey Duncan, Debbie Moskowitz, Joseph Burleson, and Vickie McGillan who very generously provided us with their data. We also wish to thank Ross Buck, Donald Fiske, Judith Hall, William Ickes, Debby Kashy, Lawrence La Voie, and Debbie Moskowitz, who provided us with comments on an earlier version of this article.     

The impact of origin community characteristics on rural-urban out-migration in a developing country

It is widely believed that structural variables such as inequitable land distribution, lack of rural employment opportunities, and rural-urban wage and amenity gaps influence population movements in developing countries. Yet quantitative evidence is scant. In this paper a multilevel model is used to investigate the effects of individual-, household-, and areal-level factors on rural-urban out-migration in the Ecuadorian Sierra. Data from a detailed survey carried out in 1977-1978 and from government macro-areal statistics are used to investigate factors affecting the out-migration of youths aged 12-25. Preliminary conclusions are presented on the usefulness of multilevel models in studying migration and policy implications for Ecuador.