A Novel Asymmetric Distribution with Power Tails

In this article, we propose a four-parameter asymmetric doubly Pareto-uniform (DPU) distribution with support (?∞, ∞) whose density and cumulative distribution functions are constructed by seamlessly concatenating the left and right Pareto tails with a uniform central part. Properties of the distribution are described and a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure for its parameters is obtained. Two illustrative examples of the MLE procedure are provided. The first example utilizes an i.i.d. sample of standardized log-differences of bi-monthly 30-year U.S. conventional mortgage interest rates (1971–2004). The second example deals with the height of 100 female Australian athletes.     

Gambling among young Thai people in Melbourne,Australia: an exploratory study

The purpose of the study reported in this paper was to explore the gambling behaviours of young Thai people resident in Melbourne, Australia; the meaning that gambling had for this group; whether the attitudes of these young Thai people towards gambling changed as a result of their location in a society with more relaxed attitudes towards gambling than in Thailand; whether any such changes of attitude were reflected in gambling participation; and whether such participation had demonstrably negative impacts. It was also hoped to gain some insight into whether pre-existing beliefs and attitudes provided a protective factor in relation to the respondent's gambling. Fifty young people aged 18 to 25, forming five natural friendship networks, were observed on over 180 occasions in relation to their gambling and leisure behaviours. A number of major themes were identified from the observational data including money, fortune and luck, consumerism, entertainment, spirituality and superstition, gambling and family values. It was found that despite high levels of gambling participation there was little, if any, evidence of problematic play or its consequences. Strong adherence to values espoused in families of origin and to complex beliefs about luck in the context of beliefs about spirituality and the location of gambling within the context of a range of leisure pursuits served as protective factors for these young people.     

A Graphical Representation for Non-Parametric Inference

A method is described for determining the sample size required for a specified precision simultaneous confidence statement about the parameters of a multinomial population. The method is based on a simultaneous confidence interval procedure due to Goodman, and the results are compared with those obtained by separately considering each cell of the multinomial population as a binomial.     

Academicals

Abstract

Category/continuum thinking is measured and the effects of dissonance between thought styles and response formats on the ability to predict behavior from measured attitude are investigated. Dissonance is found to have a substantial effect which is attributable primarily to distortions produced when females who tend toward continuum thinking are forced to respond in categories. Contrary to usual practice, continuum formats are found to be generally more adequate than category formats. The implications of the conclusions for theory and research are discussed.     

Cycles versus equilibrium in evolutionary games

Mixed-strategy equilibria are typically rather unstable in evolutionary game theory. “Monocyclic” games, such as Rock–Paper–Scissors, have only mixed equilibria, some of which are “stable” in the sense that sequential best replies lead to them; yet, even these games are prone to stable cycles under discrete-time simultaneous best replies, giving an unusual equilibrium-selection problem. This article analyzes such games in a random-utility setting where changing strategies is costly, and the speed of the dynamic is, thus, endogenous. The stochastically stable outcome is determined by the cost of switching strategies; when switching costs are high, mixed equilibria are selected, whereas when switching costs are low, cycles are selected.     

Towards contract based coordination of distributed product development processes with complete substitution

In distributed product development processes system integrators collaborate with suppliers to provide marketable products. We analyze contract structures in their ability to coordinate such processes. A converging supply chain with two suppliers and one system integrator is considered. Each supplier develops one component and faces uncertainty with regard to development results. For the system integrator the specifications of both components are substitutive in terms of the specification of the final product (e.g., recycling quotas). Depending on the resulting specification of the final product, the system integrator generates revenues under a maximum price clause. We apply a game-theoretic framework: the system integrator is the Stackelberg leader and the suppliers are Stackelberg followers. Assuming uniformly distributed development results, we analyze two typical development contracts: a wholesale price contract and a penalty contract. We present numerical illustrations of centralized and decentralized solutions to gain qualitative insights about the optimal decisions and the coordination ability of the two contracts. Accordingly, both contracts coordinate the supply chain only under forced compliance.     

State Responses to Alcohol Use and Pregnancy: Findings From the Alcohol Policy Information System

This article describes U.S. state policies related to alcohol use during pregnancy, using data from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Alcohol Policy Information System. Specifically, this study examines trends in policies enacted by states over time and types of policies enacted across states in the United States, with a focus on whether laws were supportive or punitive toward women. Findings revealed substantial variability in characteristics of policies (19 primarily supportive, 12 primarily punitive, 12 with a mixed approach, and 8 with no policies). Findings underscore the need to examine possible consequences of policies, especially of punitive policies and “mixed” approaches.     

New simulation results for the calibration and inverse median estimation problems

This paper gives the results of a new simulation study for the familiar calibration problem and the less familiar inverse median estimation problem. The latter arises when one wishes to estimate from a linear regression analysis the value of the independent variable corresponding to a specified value of the median of the dependent variable. For example, from the results of a regression analysis between stress and time to failure, one might wish to estimate the stress at which the median time to failure is 10,000 hours. In the study, the mean square error, Pitman closeness, and probability of overestimation are compared for both the calibration problem and the inverse median estimation problem for (1) the classical estimator, (2) the inverse estimator, and (3) a modified version of an estimator proposed by Naszodi (1978) for both a small sample and a moderately large sample situation.