A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

FORECAST EVALUATION OF LIVINGSTON DATA ON INFLATION RATES AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*

Livingston data on expected inflation rates have been used extensively in the financial literature, especially in investgating the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rates; however, the data have not been subjected to a thorough analysis of forecast accuracy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the forecast properties of Livingston data using a wide variety of time and frequency domain methods over an extended sample period and for selected subperiods.     

The Peltzman hypothesis revisited: An isolated evaluation of offsetting driver behavior

Nearly all of the previous investigations of driver behavior under varying safety conditions have only been able to evaluate the issue of offsetting driver behavior indirectly. Some studies note that engineering estimates of the aggregate improvements of automobile safety enhancements are substantively larger than economic estimates of the same effects. Others have found that non-occupants such as motorcyclists and pedestrians are under greater risk of incurring accidents when automobiles are made safer. Although these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that drivers respond to safety enhancements by driving less safely (having been instilled with a sense of greater protection provided by the safety improvements), they do not provide a direct evaluation of the relationship between driving environment and driver behavior. Thus, factors other than offsetting behavior may be generating these observed results. A few studies have tested the offsetting behavior hypothesis more directly, but only under highly specific safety conditions and narrow measures of driver behavior. This article undertakes an isolated analysis of driver behavior under varying safety conditions, with data which allows for more general changes to safety conditions and broader measures of driver behavior. Estimates obtained from the evaluation of individual accident reports lend support to the offsetting behavior hypothesis and imply that both aggressive behavior and nonaggressive (inattentive) driving behavior are likely to increase as the driving environment becomes safer.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.     

Learning about radon's risk

This article reports the results of an evaluation of the effectiveness of different types of information materials in communicating the risk from exposure to radon, a naturally occurring indoor air pollutant. The study involved a panel of 2300 homeowners who actually experienced risks from radon, and the information program used to explain these risks. The analysis considered information transfer and performance on specific tasks requiring information on the risk from radon to measure learning. The results suggest a systematic learning process, but indicate that the process can be influenced by how risk information is presented.     

Hearing the voices of abused older women

This paper focuses on a qualitative research process that gathered responses from 64 older women aged fifty and older on their experience of violence and abuse. What older women said about abuse in their lives supports the use of a feminist framework as well as the age based analysis of the elder abuse field. Some respondents spoke of abuse from childhood into their later years. Some spoke of partners witnessing or experiencing abuse as children. Some women express concern about possible abuse by their adult children of their own children. Abused older women like younger women need a safe environment, emotional support, advocacy, information, and peer support. While it is important to consider the perspectives and knowledge of service providers when developing policy and practice on abuse of older women, it is critical to ask the women survivors of abuse or neglect what they believe would benefit them, and others in similar situations.     

The Hiroshima memory complex

The atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 is one of the most powerful global memories. While the literature on global memories has greatly expanded in recent decades, Hiroshima remains surprisingly understudied. In addressing this lacuna, this paper develops a new theoretical prism for the study of global memories. It argues that the Hiroshima memory cannot be understood in isolation, but rather as the hub in a broader memory complex. This complex is the result of symbolic dialogues that connect Hiroshima with such different events, situations, and memories as Nanjing, Pearl Harbor, the Cold War, and so on. The paper demonstrates how these dialogues have been forged, often in the context of substantial controversy. While distinctly sociological in orientation, the paper takes its main theoretical inspiration from cultural, literary, and history scholars such as Jan and Aleida Assmann, Sebastian Conrad, Astrid Erll, Ann Rigney, Michael Rothberg, Aby Warburg and Mikhael Bakhtin.     

Research on Marital Satisfaction and Stability in the 2010s: Challenging Conventional Wisdom

Although getting married is no longer a requirement for social acceptance, most people do marry in their lifetimes, and couples across the socioeconomic spectrum wish their marriages to be satisfying and long lasting. This review evaluates the past decade of research on the determinants of satisfaction and stability in marriage, concluding that the scholarship of the past 10 years has undermined three assumptions that were formerly accepted as conventional wisdom. First, research exploiting methods such as latent class growth analyses reveal that, for most couples, marital satisfaction does not decline over time but in fact remains relatively stable for long periods. Second, contrary to predictions of behavioral models of marriage, negative communication between spouses can be difficult to change, does not necessarily lead to more satisfying relationships when it is changed, and does not always predict distress in the first place. Third, dyadic processes that are reliably adaptive for middle-class and more affluent couples may operate differently in lower income couples, suggesting that influential models of marriage may not generalize to couples living in diverse environments. Thus, the accumulated research of the past 10 years indicates that the tasks of understanding and promoting marital satisfaction and stability are more complex than we appreciated at the start of the decade, raising important questions that beg to be answered in the years ahead.     

Clients' Attributions of the Presenting Problem and the Therapeutic Alliance in Couple Therapy: Systemic Versus Intrapersonal Perspectives

The therapeutic alliance is central to couples' therapy success. The current study examined associations between couples' initial agreement and causal attributions of the presenting problem and changes in the therapeutic alliance. To test study hypotheses, 85 couples were recruited from a university training clinic focused on couple and family therapy. Couples completed an intake questionnaire concerning their attribution of the presenting problem, either as systemic or individual, and therapeutic alliance was assessed at the end of sessions 2–8. A dyadic multilevel model revealed that a disagreement in the couple's attributions of the problem (with one viewing it as systemic, the other as individual) was associated with a larger initial discrepancy in the couple's therapeutic alliance, as well as a decline in the discrepancy over time. Findings were discussed in the context of systemic family theory, with implications for improving assessment, treatment, and psychoeducation aimed toward couples in distress.