Behavioral economics and the value of a statistical life

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - There are many possible connections between the value of statistical life (VSL) and behavioral economics. A list of topics includes endowment effects, risk...     

Incarceration and Household Asset Ownership

A considerable literature documents the deleterious economic consequences of incarceration. However, little is known about the consequences of incarceration for household assets—a distinct indicator of economic well-being that may be especially valuable to the survival of low-income families—or about the spillover economic consequences of incarceration for families. In this article, we use longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine how incarceration is associated with asset ownership among formerly incarcerated men and their romantic partners. Results, which pay careful attention to the social forces that select individuals into incarceration, show that incarceration is negatively associated with ownership of a bank account, vehicle, and home among men and that these consequences for asset ownership extend to the romantic partners of these men. These associations are concentrated among men who previously held assets. Results also show that post-incarceration changes in romantic relationships are an important pathway by which even short-term incarceration depletes assets.     

Data-driven Kriging models based on FANOVA-decomposition

Kriging models have been widely used in computer experiments for the analysis of time-consuming computer codes. Based on kernels, they are flexible and can be tuned to many situations. In this paper, we construct kernels that reproduce the computer code complexity by mimicking its interaction structure. While the standard tensor-product kernel implicitly assumes that all interactions are active, the new kernels are suited for a general interaction structure, and will take advantage of the absence of interaction between some inputs. The methodology is twofold. First, the interaction structure is estimated from the data, using a first initial standard Kriging model, and represented by a so-called FANOVA graph. New FANOVA-based sensitivity indices are introduced to detect active interactions. Then this graph is used to derive the form of the kernel, and the corresponding Kriging model is estimated by maximum likelihood. The performance of the overall procedure is illustrated by several 3-dimensional and 6-dimensional simulated and real examples. A substantial improvement is observed when the computer code has a relatively high level of complexity.     

Dublin’s Seventeenth Century Parishes and the Quality of Life

Social Indicators Research - The registers of Dublin’s parishes in the seventeenth century provide access to aspects of civic and religious life. In the registers are records of burials,...     

ARE WORKERS WILLING TO PAY TO JOIN A BETTER TEAM?

Using data from the Major League Baseball free‐agent market, this study is the first to show that the productivity expected of the team a worker will join produces a significant, negative compensating wage differential. The younger workers in the sample drive this result, trading 25% of their wages to join teams with an expected productivity one standard deviation higher. This investment can be recouped if a reasonable increase in human capital occurs. These results are robust to contract length‐wage simultaneity and indicate that investment in human capital motivates the observed tradeoff, suggesting a new pathway through which human capital accumulation can affect wages. Reliable measures of workers' own past productivity and the productivity expected of a worker's future team provide key advantages to identifying these effects. (JEL J31, J24, M54)     

Wie Wahrnehmungs- und Bewertungsprozesse unsere materielle Zufriedenheit beeinflussenHow perception and evaluation processes affect material satisfaction

There is ample evidence that shows external circumstances affect our level of satisfaction. Unclear, however, is which processes or mechanisms underlie this relationship. This article examines the importance of perception and evaluation processes for explaining the relationship between income and material satisfaction. The analyses are based on representative survey data from 2006 for Germany and mediation models are employed. The results show that the influence of income on material satisfaction is at least partially explained by differences in the self-perception of the position within the social hierarchy as well as the justice perception of income. Differences in material satisfaction between East and West Germany are fully explained by regionally divergent perception and evaluation patterns. These findings demonstrate the sociological relevance of cognitive mechanisms and support the integration of these mechanisms within empirical survey research.     

Demographic change and shifting views about marine resources and the coastal environment in Downeast Maine

Connections to the sea often define the character of coastal towns. However, as migrants arrive and economic diversification occurs, views about the use of marine resources and the ocean environment can change. Using survey data from Maine, we examined whether shifting demographics affect public perceptions of marine resource uses and coastal environmental concerns. We tested resource use and environmental items against a common set of demographic, background, and place-related variables. Results indicate that the level of education and the county of residence predict Mainers?? views about different marine resource uses and ocean-related environmental issues. Political party affiliation strongly influences environmental concern but not views about the use of marine resources. Migration history, on the other hand, has little effect. Understanding community contexts as well as individual background and ideological orientations will be critical as managers attempt to balance alternative uses of marine resources and resolve coastal environmental problems.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy

The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs.     

The next forty years in public health

In this article an attempt is made to assess the major health problems of the second half of the twentieth century in developed countries, the methods appropriate to these problems, and the pattern of medical services necessary to deal with them. From an examination of mortality and morbidity trends it is suggested that the most important problems are likely to be the mortality, malformation and disability established before birth, mental illness, and the disease and disability associated with ageing. Reasons are given for doubting whether control of breeding, the method which has contributed greatly to the improvement of plants and other animals, can be expected to be effective in the case of man, and hence reliance must continue to be placed on modifications of the environment to which achievement hitherto has been entirely due. The methods likely to be significant are: an extension of measures already in use for control ofthe physical environment; discovery and application of knowledge concerning the social environment; and elaboration of more effective methods of preventing and treating disease in the individual. Profound changes will be needed in the pattern of services through which medical knowledge is applied, the most important being unification ofthe major classes ofhospitals - acute, mental and chronic; association ofthe preventive personal health services with curative services (rather than with environmental services); and the strengthening of domiciliary medical care, particularly through a new and more intimate relationship between general practitioner and hospital services.