A Graphical Representation for Non-Parametric Inference

A method is described for determining the sample size required for a specified precision simultaneous confidence statement about the parameters of a multinomial population. The method is based on a simultaneous confidence interval procedure due to Goodman, and the results are compared with those obtained by separately considering each cell of the multinomial population as a binomial.     

Academicals

Abstract

Category/continuum thinking is measured and the effects of dissonance between thought styles and response formats on the ability to predict behavior from measured attitude are investigated. Dissonance is found to have a substantial effect which is attributable primarily to distortions produced when females who tend toward continuum thinking are forced to respond in categories. Contrary to usual practice, continuum formats are found to be generally more adequate than category formats. The implications of the conclusions for theory and research are discussed.     

Cycles versus equilibrium in evolutionary games

Mixed-strategy equilibria are typically rather unstable in evolutionary game theory. “Monocyclic” games, such as Rock–Paper–Scissors, have only mixed equilibria, some of which are “stable” in the sense that sequential best replies lead to them; yet, even these games are prone to stable cycles under discrete-time simultaneous best replies, giving an unusual equilibrium-selection problem. This article analyzes such games in a random-utility setting where changing strategies is costly, and the speed of the dynamic is, thus, endogenous. The stochastically stable outcome is determined by the cost of switching strategies; when switching costs are high, mixed equilibria are selected, whereas when switching costs are low, cycles are selected.     

The effects of the Great Recession on American families

The Great Recession was marked by historic rates of unemployment and foreclosure and caused substantial household economic hardship and widespread economic uncertainty. I review recent social scientific research on the effects of the Great Recession on American families. I first generate a set of expectations for how the Great Recession would have affected (a) marriage and cohabitation, (b) fertility, and (c) relationship quality and divorce based on existing sociological and demographic theory and research. I then discuss the key methods that scholars have used to gauge the effects of the Great Recession in these outcome areas. My review of research to date indicates that the recession had modest effects on marriage and cohabitation, but significant negative effects on fertility. Notably, these fertility effects are evident among unmarried and low socio‐economic‐status (SES) women whom prior research has suggested decouple fertility from economic concerns. Finally, there is modest evidence that the Great Recession reduced relationship quality, but it appears that the costs of divorce restrained any increase in dissolution.     

Towards contract based coordination of distributed product development processes with complete substitution

In distributed product development processes system integrators collaborate with suppliers to provide marketable products. We analyze contract structures in their ability to coordinate such processes. A converging supply chain with two suppliers and one system integrator is considered. Each supplier develops one component and faces uncertainty with regard to development results. For the system integrator the specifications of both components are substitutive in terms of the specification of the final product (e.g., recycling quotas). Depending on the resulting specification of the final product, the system integrator generates revenues under a maximum price clause. We apply a game-theoretic framework: the system integrator is the Stackelberg leader and the suppliers are Stackelberg followers. Assuming uniformly distributed development results, we analyze two typical development contracts: a wholesale price contract and a penalty contract. We present numerical illustrations of centralized and decentralized solutions to gain qualitative insights about the optimal decisions and the coordination ability of the two contracts. Accordingly, both contracts coordinate the supply chain only under forced compliance.     

State Responses to Alcohol Use and Pregnancy: Findings From the Alcohol Policy Information System

This article describes U.S. state policies related to alcohol use during pregnancy, using data from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Alcohol Policy Information System. Specifically, this study examines trends in policies enacted by states over time and types of policies enacted across states in the United States, with a focus on whether laws were supportive or punitive toward women. Findings revealed substantial variability in characteristics of policies (19 primarily supportive, 12 primarily punitive, 12 with a mixed approach, and 8 with no policies). Findings underscore the need to examine possible consequences of policies, especially of punitive policies and “mixed” approaches.     

New simulation results for the calibration and inverse median estimation problems

This paper gives the results of a new simulation study for the familiar calibration problem and the less familiar inverse median estimation problem. The latter arises when one wishes to estimate from a linear regression analysis the value of the independent variable corresponding to a specified value of the median of the dependent variable. For example, from the results of a regression analysis between stress and time to failure, one might wish to estimate the stress at which the median time to failure is 10,000 hours. In the study, the mean square error, Pitman closeness, and probability of overestimation are compared for both the calibration problem and the inverse median estimation problem for (1) the classical estimator, (2) the inverse estimator, and (3) a modified version of an estimator proposed by Naszodi (1978) for both a small sample and a moderately large sample situation.