Rod Garratt  Thomas Trger 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2006,74(3):753-769

In standard auctions resale creates a role for a speculator—a bidder who is commonly known to have no use value for the good on sale. We study this issue in environments with symmetric independent private‐value bidders. For second‐price and English auctions the efficient value‐bidding equilibrium coexists with a continuum of inefficient equilibria in which the speculator wins the auction and makes positive profits. First‐price and Dutch auctions have an essentially unique equilibrium, and whether or not the speculator wins the auction and distorts the final allocation depends on the number of bidders, the value distribution, and the discount factor. Speculators do not make profits in first‐price or Dutch auctions.  相似文献   

    

Detlof von Winterfeldt  Thomas Eppel  John Adams  Raymond Neutra  Vincent DelPizzo 《Risk analysis》2004,24(6):1487-1502

Over the past 20 years, several epidemiological studies have found an association between exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMFs) and health effects, including childhood leukemia and adult brain cancer. However, experts strongly disagree about whether this association is causal and, if so, how strong it is. In this article, we examine several alternatives to reduce EMFs from sources of the California power grid, including undergrounding distribution and transmission lines and reconfiguring or rephasing lines. The alternatives were evaluated in terms of the potential health risk reduction, cost, impacts on service reliability, property values, and many other consequences. Because of the uncertainty about an EMF-health link, the main effort was to determine the sensitivity of the decisions to the probability and seriousness of an EMF hazard. User-friendly computer models were developed to allow stakeholders to change the model assumptions and parameters to analyze the impacts of their own assumptions and estimates on the decision. The analysis clearly demonstrated that only four of the many concerns raised by the stakeholders could make a difference in the decision: health risks, costs, service reliability, and property values. Whether undergrounding, moderate alternatives for EMF reduction, or no change was the best decision depended on a few key factors, including the probability that EMF exposure is a hazard, the severity of this hazard, how the EMF reduction measures are financed, and the impacts on property values. While the analysis did not resolve the EMF issues, it showed that even in the most controversial settings, a little analysis goes a long way to clarifying the issues and to focus the debate.  相似文献   

    

Simon J. T. Pollard  Ray V. Kemp  Mark Crawford  Raquel Duarte-Davidson  James G. Irwin  Roger Yearsley 《Risk analysis》2004,24(6):1551-1560

Environmental policymakers and regulators are often in the position of having to prioritize their actions across a diverse range of environmental pressures to secure environmental protection and improvements. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of strategic analysis can be disparate; it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy analysis and comparison. Nevertheless, judgments are required on the significance of various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties to inform strategic assessments such as “state of the environment” reports. How can decisionmakers go about this type of strategic and comparative risk analysis? In an attempt to provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has conducted a program of developmental research on strategic risk assessment since 1996. The tools developed under this program use the concept of “environmental harm” as a common metric, viewed from technical, social, and economic perspectives, to analyze impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate on the relative importance of these perspectives is an understanding and analysis of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to actual or potential environmental harm from a range of hazards. Recent developments in our approach, described herein, allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk‐management decisions.  相似文献   

    

Erzo G. J. Luttmer  Thomas Mariotti 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2003,71(6):1909-1911

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Wm. A. Wulf  Yacov Y. Haimes  Thomas A. Longstaff 《Risk analysis》2003,23(3):429-444

The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001 were a wake‐up call for changing our traditional response to risks of terrorism. Given that government and worldwide think‐tank organizations maintain that risks of terrorism will continue for the indefinite future, the following questions deserve strategic answers. How long can we respond to terrorism with tactical measures only, sustain current curtailments of some of our freedoms, travel, and quality of life, and absorb losses in human life and properties? Should not underlying strategic motivation lead to the tactical measures? Why do so many groups and individuals in some developing countries hate us? Is it because they fear that the ideas we export through television, movies, literature, and music have a corrupting influence on their cultures? Is it because of past operations that we conducted in such countries as Iran, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Granada? Can the genesis of the risks of terrorism to the homeland be traced to the unfavorable socioeconomic conditions in less‐privileged and developing countries, where civil and religious freedoms are close to nonexistent, and sanitary conditions, health and education, and critical infrastructures of essential utilities are almost at the same level that existed in the United States almost a century ago? If we could make progress at improving the quality of life of the billions of people in the developing countries and become more sensitive to their needs, cultures, and heritage, would their hatred subside? What other measures can we take to reduce their hatred, without compromising our basic cultural and democratic principles or their cultural and social heritage?  相似文献   

    

V. DANIEL R. GUIDE  LUK N. VAN WASSENHOVE 《Production and Operations Management》2001,10(2):142-155

Firms are often encouraged to offer environmentally friendly products as a demonstration of corporate citizenship. However, this may prove to be an unrealistic expectation since a rational firm will only engage in profitable ventures; those that increase shareholder wealth. We develop a framework for analyzing the profitability of reuse activities and show how the management of product returns influences operational requirements. We show that the acquisition of used products may be used as the control lever for the management and profitability of reuse activities. These activities, termed product acquisition management, affect several important business decisions. First, if a firm is to pursue reuse activities, these reuse activities must be value‐creating. Second, if a firm is to compete by offering remanufactured products, then we show how product returns management influences the overall profitability of such activities via a trial and error EVA approach. Third, we show how operational issues are strongly affected by the approach used to manage product returns. There is a need for future research specifying the mathematical relationship between acquisition price and the nominal quality of the returned product.  相似文献   

  总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Thomas C. Beierle 《Risk analysis》2002,22(4):739-749

The increased use of stakeholder processes in environmental decision making has raised concerns about the quality of decisions these processes produce. Some claim that stakeholders make inadequate use of scientific information and analysis and are all too ready to sacrifice technical quality for political expediency. This article looks to the case study record to examine the quality of the decisions from stakeholder-based processes. The data for the analysis come from a \"case survey,\" in which researchers coded information from 239 published case studies of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision making. These cases reflect a diversity of planning, management, and implementation activities carried out by environmental and natural resource agencies at many levels of government. Overall, the case-study record suggests that there should be little concern that stakeholder processes are resulting in low-quality decisions. The majority of cases contain evidence of stakeholders improving decisions over the status quo; adding new information, ideas, and analysis; and having adequate access to technical and scientific resources. Indeed, data suggest that it is the more intensive stakeholder processes--precisely those that have aroused recent concern--that are more likely to result in higher-quality decisions.  相似文献   

    

Bret J. Wagner  Darwin J. Davis  Hemant V. Kher 《决策科学》2002,33(3):317-346

In this paper we extend the ELSP model to allow for linearly changing demand rates over a fixed planning horizon. This extension of the ELSP research provides a model that can be used in coordinating the production and marketing planning activities in a firm. The model allows the user to evaluate the impact of changes in product demand on production costs and customer service. We solve the model using a standard nonlinear programming package (MINOS) and show through examples based on actual production data how the model can be used to support coordinated production and marketing planning.  相似文献   

    

Armand V. Feigenbaum 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》1993,13(1):7-10

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Jeffrey A. Bradt  David V. Osteraas 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》1993,12(3):417-424

Before an organization can improve quality and performance, it has to assess its current state of affairs. That requires measurement, which can be greatly enhanced through proper sampling technologies. Unfortunately, the very idea of conducting statistically reliable samples is intimidating to many professionals. In demystifying the subject of sampling, this article provides a springboard for accurate performance measurement.  相似文献