Determinants of motion picture box office and profitability: an interrelationship approach

Introduction  Producing and marketing motion pictures is notoriously risky, with only three out of ten movies breaking even and one becoming profitable at the box office. Extending knowledge on the factors that influence a movie’s box-office and on the interrelations between these factors can be seen as major contribution to aid in lowering the number of failures in the motion picture industry. The major aim of this study is to distinguish direct and indirect effects between potential success drivers and motion picture success by understanding the interrelationships among different determinants of movie success. Methods  Hypotheses are developed with regard to the relationships among a number of factors that have been shown to impact motion-picture box office as well as movie profitability. Applying path analysis, which allows a simultaneous testing of factor interrelations, the hypotheses are subsequently tested against a sample of 331 movies. Results and conclusion  The factors considered in the analysis explain a remarkable amount of a movie’s success. The findings improve the movie industry’s understanding of motion picture success because for the first time interrelationships between the various factors are considered, which enables the separation of direct and indirect (i.e., mediated) effects. By understanding different kinds of effects on movie success, studios are enabled to allocate budgets more effectively. In addition, the findings offer explanations for previous contrary findings of several factors’ influences on success.      

Mehr Arbeit,mehr Armut? Ausmaß und Hintergründe der Entkoppelung von Erwerbsarbeit und materieller Sicherheit von Alleinerziehenden im Ländervergleich

Labour market reforms implemented in recent years in a number of countries have aimed to increase participation rates among single parents in order to reduce the disproportionately high poverty rate and share of benefit recipients among them. However, our quantitative analyses based on EU-LFS and EU-SILC indicate that paid work has to some extent become dissociated from material security. Although participation rates among single parents rose in the five years before the financial and economic crisis, their risk of being in poverty remained the same or actually increased. This finding holds true for different types of welfare state, as the comparison between Germany, France, Sweden and the UK shows. The potential poverty-reducing effects of increasing labour market participation are clearly being weakened by certain counter-trends. Possible explanations, which apply to varying extents in the four countries, are declining market wages and reductions in social transfers. Moreover, previously latent material risks of lone parenting unfold with the modernisation of gender roles and the erosion of lone mothers ‘avant-garde’ role as working parents. This is a common challenge across countries which has so far not been addressed sufficiently by social and labour market policies.     

The long run consequences of unilateral divorce laws on children—evidence from SHARELIFE

Previous research has shown adverse effects of growing up under unilateral divorce laws on long-term outcomes of children. It remains an open question of whether these effects of early childhood conditions arise due to divorce laws raising the likelihood of parental marital disruption or whether unilateral divorce laws also affect children in intact marriages by changing intra-household bargaining. Using recently available data from SHARELIFE for 11 Western European countries, we address this question employing a difference-in-differences approach and controlling for childhood family structure and socioeconomic status. Like previous research, we find adverse effects of growing up under unilateral divorce laws on the well-being of children. This effect remains even when controlling for childhood variables. We conclude that unilateral divorce laws affect children by changing family bargaining in intact marriages.     

Jarque–Bera Test and its Competitors for Testing Normality – A Power Comparison

For testing normality we investigate the power of several tests, first of all, the well-known test of Jarque & Bera (1980) and furthermore the tests of Kuiper (1960) and Shapiro & Wilk (1965) as well as tests of Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises type. The tests on normality are based, first, on independent random variables (model I) and, second, on the residuals in the classical linear regression (model II). We investigate the exact critical values of the Jarque–Bera test and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises tests, in the latter case for the original and standardized observations where the unknown parameters μ and σ have to be estimated. The power comparison is carried out via Monte Carlo simulation assuming the model of contaminated normal distributions with varying parameters μ and σ and different proportions of contamination. It turns out that for the Jarque–Bera test the approximation of critical values by the chi-square distribution does not work very well. The test is superior in power to its competitors for symmetric distributions with medium up to long tails and for slightly skewed distributions with long tails. The power of the Jarque–Bera test is poor for distributions with short tails, especially if the shape is bimodal – sometimes the test is even biased. In this case a modification of the Cramér-von Mises test or the Shapiro–Wilk test may be recommended.     

A note on Savage's theorem with a finite number of states

This article gives a preference-based characterization of subjective expected utility for the general equilibrium model with a finite number of states. The characterization follows Savage (1954) as closely as possible but has to abandon his axiom (P6), atomlessness of events, since this requires an infinite state space. To introduce continuity we replace (P6) with a continuity assumption on the set of consequences and assume the preferences are smooth. Then we apply Savage's sure-thing principle and his state-independence axiom to get an additively separable utility representation. Finally, to separate subjective probabilities from basic tastes, we apply a new axiom, which states that for each pair of states the marginal rate of substitution is constant along the certainty line.     

Estimating cumulative prospect theory parameters from an international survey

We conduct a standardized survey on risk preferences in 53 countries worldwide and estimate cumulative prospect theory parameters from the data. The parameter estimates show that significant differences on the cross-country level are to some extent robust and related to economic and cultural differences. In particular, a closer look on probability weighting underlines gender differences, economic effects, and cultural impact on probability weighting. The data set is a useful starting point for future research that investigates the impact of risk preferences on the market level.     

Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates in Western Europe?

The increase in European divorce rates over the past decades was accompanied by several changes in divorce laws. Yet for European countries, research on the effects of divorce law on the divorce rate is scarce. Most of the existing studies are based on data from North America and provide numerous, but inconsistent, results. We use fixed‐effects regression models to examine the impact of the introduction of unilateral divorce on the divorce rate in Western European countries. We find that de facto unilateral divorce practices led to a sustainable increase in the divorce rate, whereas legal rights to unilaterally divorce had no long‐run effects.     

Population, population density and technological change

In a model on population and endogenous technological change, Kremer (1993) combines a short-run Malthusian scenario where income determines the population that can be sustained, with the Boserupian insight that greater population spurs technological change and can therefore lift a country out of its Malthusian trap. We show that a more realistic version of the model, which combines population and population density, allows deeper insights into these processes. The incorporation of population density also allows a superior interpretation of the empirical regularities between the level of population, population density, population growth, and economic development at aggregated and disaggregated levels.