Geburten aus geplanten und ungeplanten Schwangerschaften – Die Relevanz von Bildung,Arbeitslosigkeit und PartnerschaftChildren from Planned and Unplanned Pregnancies: The Importance of Education,Unemployment and Partnership

Micro theories on fertility such as the economic theory of family frame fertility behaviour in industrialized countries as a decision. Predictions of these theories have been tested in numerous empirical studies. This research widely ignores that childbirth may also result from unintended pregnancies. We discuss how education, educational and labour market participation as well as partnership status influence unplanned and planned pregnancy in Germany. To test our hypotheses, we use data from the Socio-Economic Panel Study, collected between 2001 and 2013. The focus is on the planning status of pregnancies leading to a first or third birth. Data on women are analysed with event history models for competing risks. Contrary to arguments of high opportunity costs, graduates show an above-average probability of planned pregnancies. Unemployed women, who should have lower opportunity costs, do not have an increased probability of planned pregnancies; instead their first children are more often unplanned. Consensual unions, which are less serious but offer the same opportunities for sexual activity as marriages, have the highest rate of unplanned pregnancies. The overall findings make clear that future surveys and empirical research might benefit from taking intentions into account, which would enable more rigorous testing of fertility theories.     

The Other‐Race Effect in a Longitudinal Sample of 3‐, 6‐ and 9‐Month‐Old Infants: Evidence of a Training Effect

We investigated the development of the other‐race effect “ORE” in a longitudinal sample of 3‐, 6‐, and 9‐month‐old Caucasian infants. Previous research using cross‐sectional samples has shown an unstable ORE at 3 months, an increase at 6 months and full development at 9 months. In Experiment 1, we tested whether 9‐month‐olds showed the ORE with Caucasian and African faces. As expected, the 9‐month‐olds discriminated faces within their own ethnicity (Caucasian) but not within the unfamiliar ethnicity (African). In months. In Experiment 2, we longitudinally tested infants at 3, 6, and 9 months by presenting either the Caucasian or the African faces used in Experiment 1. In contrast to previous cross‐sectional studies and Experiment 1, we found that infants discriminated between all stimuli. Hence, we did not find the ORE in this longitudinal study even at 9 months. We assume that the infants in our longitudinal study showed no ORE because of previous repetitive exposure to African faces at 3 and 6 months. We argue that only a few presentations of faces from other ethnic categories sufficiently slow the development of the ORE.     

On difference-based variance estimation in nonparametric regression when the covariate is high dimensional

Summary.  We consider the problem of estimating the noise variance in homoscedastic nonparametric regression models. For low dimensional covariates t  ∈  R ^d ,  d =1, 2, difference-based estimators have been investigated in a series of papers. For a given length of such an estimator, difference schemes which minimize the asymptotic mean-squared error can be computed for d =1 and d =2. However, from numerical studies it is known that for finite sample sizes the performance of these estimators may be deficient owing to a large finite sample bias. We provide theoretical support for these findings. In particular, we show that with increasing dimension d this becomes more drastic. If d 4, these estimators even fail to be consistent. A different class of estimators is discussed which allow better control of the bias and remain consistent when d 4. These estimators are compared numerically with kernel-type estimators (which are asymptotically efficient), and some guidance is given about when their use becomes necessary.     

流动性过剩的测度方法研究

 当前,流动性过剩问题成为中国经济乃至全球经济的一个重要特征，但是在查阅有关文献的同时，我们发现，对于流动性过剩的测度方法缺乏一定的研究。针对这种状况，欧洲中央银行的有关专家提出了四种测度流动性过剩的方法，分别是价格缺口法（price gap,或者称p*法）、真实货币缺口法（real money gap）、名义货币缺口法（nominal money gap）和货币过剩法（money overhang）。我们将这四种方法翻译出来，供大家了解和研究时使用。文章翻译自Thorsten Polleit 和 Dieter Gerdesmeier的《流动性过剩的测度方法》一文，个别部分进行了删节。     

THE GENERALIZED ALCHIAN–ALLEN THEOREM: A SLUTSKY EQUATION FOR RELATIVE DEMAND

We generalize the Alchian–Allen theorem so as to account for income and endowment effects and provide two versions of a Generalized Alchian–Allen theorem: one for a unit cost component and one for a proportional cost component. Both versions provide a decomposition of an uncompensated change in the demand ratio of two goods into a substitution effect and an income‐endowment effect—and may thus be regarded as extensions of the familiar Slutsky equation for relative demand. Finally, we apply our results to the choice of real estates and to parental time allocation decisions, the latter providing implications for child care policies. (JEL D11, H21, J22, R21)     

An Evaluation of a Parenting Payment Intervention Program

This paper analyses the effect of a pilot program to assist single parent claimants to lessen their dependence on social security benefits. A sample of about 5000 persons was randomly assigned to one control and two treatment groups. Those in the treatment groups were asked to attend an initial interview to help them plan for the future and were then referred to other forms of assistance that might help them to realise their plans. Using different estimators and several indicators of outcomes, the evidence for the program having a positive effect on outcomes is very weak. The reason for this result is explored by an analysis of the relationships between the plans participants formulated, the barriers they faced and whether they left benefits. It is found that while the program encouraged claimants to plan for moving into paid work, the assistance offered did not reduce the barriers they faced.     

Doxastic Conditions for Backward Induction

The problem of finding sufficient doxastic conditions for backward induction in games of perfect information is analyzed in a syntactic framework with subjunctive conditionals. This allows to describe the structure of the game by a logical formula and consequently to treat beliefs about this structure in the same way as beliefs about rationality. A backward induction and a non-Nash equilibrium result based on higher level belief in rationality and the structure of the game are derived.     

Wie den strukturell bedingten Herausforderungen des Internen Coachings begegnet werden kann

Out of strategic considerations, companies offer their employees coaching as an internal method of personnel development. A wide range of organizational forms can be taken into consideration for those internal coaching offers. As coach and client belong to the same organization, specific areas of conflict can arise in the coaching process. Those will be briefly described. Thereafter it will be discussed how the anticipated conflicts arising during the phase of contract formation can be dealt with. Furthermore it is shown how organizational implementation of internal coaching offers can mitigate the assumed conflicts.