Pseudo–Modelling of Outliers for Estimation of Regression And Time Series Models

This paper documents situations where the variance inflation model for outliers has undesirable properties. The model is commonly used to accommodate outliers in a Bayesian analysis of regression and time series models. The alternative approach provided here does not suffer from these undesirable properties but gives inferences similar to those of the variance inflation model when this is appropriate. It can be used with regression, time series, and regression with correlated errors in a unified way, and adheres to the scientific principle that inference should be based on the data after obvious outliers have been discarded. Only one parameter is required for outliers; it is interpretable as the a priori willingness to remove observations from the analysis.     

阶段的过渡与本质的上升——20世纪90年代至21世纪初国际社会发展本质特点的系统与实证分析

论述了冷战结束以来 ,国际社会在“一个主题”(和平与发展 )“两个趋势”(经济全球化、政治多极化 )的总特征前提下发生的一系列深刻的结构性变化。提出了旧的国际格局被打破、新的格局尚未形成 ,在新旧体系转换的过程中 ,不同的国际关系主体为了其各自的根本利益、为在未来的新格局中占据更加有利的地位而展开了新一轮的较量。在此过程中 ,国际社会呈现出过渡时期所特有的一系列纷繁复杂的特征 ,并进一步影响着国际形势的走势。我们应当立足于从形式到本质的认知途径对这些变化特征进行深刻的分析 ,以求准确地把握新时期国际社会发展的本质性特征和规律     

丰水区筑坝截流——调丰补歉

该文从中国人口快速增长、经济建设加快、用水量逐年增大 ,加上气候变暖、少雨干旱将持续到 2 0 15年 ,我国北方水生态环境日趋恶化现状 ,说明在丰水区筑坝截流、调丰补歉势在必行 ,完全符合生态经济学发展原则和国际水法     

高等农业院校提高实践教学质量的思考

本文在分析高等农业院校实践教学现状的基础上 ,认为提高实践教学质量应强化实践教学的“重心”地位 ,加强师资队伍建设 ,促进知识的更新、升级 ,着力解决仪器、设备陈旧问题 ,增大教学环节的灵活性 ,加强基地建设和健全考核管理制度     

不同添加剂预混料对哺乳仔猪生产性能的影响

以窝为单位将 70窝哺乳仔猪随机分为 7组 ,设 1个对照组 (试验I组 ) ,6个试验组。试验组分别添加 2 0 0mg/kg派富 (含芽胞杆菌等复合微生态制剂 ) (Ⅱ )、1%的甲酸吡啶铬 2 0 0mg/kg(Ⅲ )、2 0mg/kg泰乐菌素 (Ⅳ )、1%中药免疫增强剂 (黄芪、远智等复合中草药 ) (Ⅴ )、1%的益康XP(酵母培养物 ) (Ⅵ )以及 2 0mg/kg的硝呋烯宗 (Ⅶ )。经过 15d的试验 ,其结果表明 :试验组较对照组提高日增重 11.37% - 34.12 % ,其中Ⅴ、Ⅵ组达到显著水平 (p <0 .0 5 ) ;提高采食量 1.5 9% - 12 .30 % ;降低饲料增重比 8.4 % - 2 0 .2 0 % ;降低仔猪腹泻频次 10 .34- 31.0 3%。经无菌粪样检验 ,试验各组大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌、葡萄球菌数均低于对照组 ,差异不显著 (p >0 .0 5 ) ;而乳酸杆菌、双岐杆菌均高于对照组 ,差异不显著 (p >0 .0 5 )。经部分血液指标分析 ,试验各组的血液各项理化指标均在正常范围内 ,且各组间差异不显著 (p >0 .0 5 )。     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

Defining the linear portion of a sigmoid‐shaped curve: bend points

Formulae are provided that define the ‘bend points’, the beginning and end of the essentially linear dose–response region, for the four‐parameter logistic model. The formulae are expressed in both response and dose units. The derivation of the formulae is shown in order to illustrate the general nature of the methodology. Examples are given that describe how the formulae may be used while planning and conducting bioassays. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence Intervals for Current Status Data

Abstract.  The likelihood ratio statistic for testing pointwise hypotheses about the survival time distribution in the current status model can be inverted to yield confidence intervals (CIs). One advantage of this procedure is that CIs can be formed without estimating the unknown parameters that figure in the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the distribution function. We discuss the likelihood ratio-based CIs for the distribution function and the quantile function and compare these intervals to several different intervals based on the MLE. The quantiles of the limiting distribution of the MLE are estimated using various methods including parametric fitting, kernel smoothing and subsampling techniques. Comparisons are carried out both for simulated data and on a data set involving time to immunization against rubella. The comparisons indicate that the likelihood ratio-based intervals are preferable from several perspectives.     

Four‐Month‐Olds' Discrimination of Voice Changes in Multimodal Displays as a Function of Discrimination Protocol

Past studies have found equivocal support for the ability of young infants to discriminate infant‐directed (ID) speech information in the presence of auditory‐only versus auditory + visual displays (faces + voices). Generally, younger infants appear to have more difficulty discriminating a change in the vocal properties of ID speech when they are accompanied by faces. Forty 4‐month‐old infants were tested using either an infant‐controlled habituation procedure (Experiment 1) or a fixed‐trial habituation procedure (Experiment 2). The prediction was that the infant‐controlled habituation procedure would be a more sensitive measure of infant attention to complex displays. The results indicated that 4‐month‐old infants discriminated voice changes in dynamic face + voice displays depending on the order in which they were viewed during the infant‐controlled habituation procedure. In contrast, no evidence of discrimination was found in the fixed‐trial procedure. The findings suggest that the selection of experimental methodology plays a significant role in the empirical observations of infant perceptual abilities.