A Simulator for Twenty20 Cricket

This paper develops a Twenty20 cricket simulator for matches between sides belonging to the International Cricket Council. As input, the simulator requires the probabilities of batting outcomes which are dependent on the batsman, the bowler, the number of overs consumed and the number of wickets lost. The determination of batting probabilities is based on an amalgam of standard classical estimation techniques and a hierarchical empirical Bayes approach where the probabilities of batting outcomes borrow information from related scenarios. Initially, the probabilities of batting outcomes are obtained for the first innings. In the second innings, the target score obtained from the first innings affects the aggressiveness of batting during the second innings. We use the target score to modify batting probabilities in the second innings simulation. This gives rise to the suggestion that teams may not be adjusting their second innings batting aggressiveness in an optimal way. The adequacy of the simulator is addressed through various goodness‐of‐fit diagnostics.     

EFFICIENCY EFFECTS OF EXCLUSIVE TERRITORIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE INDIANA BEER MARKET

The welfare effects of vertically imposed exclusive territories and the appropriate antitrust policy toward them have long been debated. This paper sheds light on the exclusive-territory controversy by examing the effects of Indiana's 1979 ban on the grant of exclusive territories to beer wholesalers. Using time-series data for 1948–1990 we find the ban reduced beer consumption in Indiana by 6 percent. Coupled with previous evidence that Indiana's ban reduced price, our results suggest that exclusive territories in the beer industry increase demand and enhance welfare by stimulating the provision of dealer services.     

Children placed in long-term family foster care: A longitudinal study into the development of problem behavior and associated factors

Due to prior experiences of trauma and abuse, many foster children have behavioral problems. The placement of the child in a family foster home is expected to reduce the behavioral problems. However, this expectation is seldom met and mostly behavioral problems increase or remain stable during placement. Research on the development of behavioral problems in foster children is scarce. Moreover, most of the research results are situated on a group level, which obscures the development of problem behavior on a case level. This study investigated the development of problem behavior of 49 foster children on a case level and the association of global, contextual, familial and child factors with the increase or decrease of problem behavior. Over a two year period 18 foster children had more, 23 just as much and 8 less problem behavior. An increase was associated with the use of more negative parenting strategies by the foster mothers. A decrease was related to the use of supportive parenting. Support of foster parents aiming at reducing the use of negative discipline practices and promoting the use of supportive parenting may have a positive effect on the development of foster children.     

Children and safety in Australian policy: Implications for organisations and practitioners

Child safety is now a national policy priority in Australia. Extensive enquiries and reviews have escalated legislative and policy responses focused on developing, maintaining and monitoring “child safe” organisations. The recommendations of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse point to the importance of cultural conditions within organisations in supporting child safety and the need for responsive change in some organisations. Drawing on a recent policy analysis, undertaken as part of a larger Australian Research Council Discovery Project, this article examines how children and safety are constructed, within and across relevant state and federal government policies in Australia, and the implications of this. Distinctions are drawn between conceptualisations of children within the broader education policy context and two specific policy contexts in which children are considered particularly vulnerable to abuse – out‐of‐home care and disability. The findings indicate that policy discourses of “child safe” potentially foster different emphases and approaches in organisations. These have implications for the way children are positioned in relation to their safety, how their rights are recognised and implemented, and what is required to foster cultural conditions within organisations to best support children’s safety and wellbeing.     

The case for an inhabited institutionalism in organizational research: interaction,coupling, and change reconsidered

This paper makes the case for an inhabited institutionalism by pondering questions that continue to vex institutional theory: How can we account for local activity, agency, and change without reverting to a focus on individual actors—the very kinds of actors that institutional theory was designed to critique? How is change possible in an institutional context that constructs interests and sets the very conditions for such action? Efforts to deal with these questions by inserting various forms of individual, purposive actors into institutional frameworks have created inconsistencies that threaten the overall coherence of institutional theory and move it farther from its sociological roots. To provide alternative answers, we turn to the growing line of work on “inhabited” institutions. Our exegesis of this literature has two goals. The first goal is to shift focus away from individuals and nested imagery and towards social interaction and coupling configurations. This move opens new avenues for research and helps to identify the spaces—both conceptual and empirical—and the supra-individual processes that facilitate change. This shift has important theoretical implications: incorporating social interaction alters institutional theory, and our second goal is to specify an analytic framework for this new research, an inhabited institutionalism. Inhabited institutionalism is a meso-approach for examining the recursive relationships among institutions, interactions, and organizations. It provides novel and sociologically consistent means for dealing with issues of agency and change, and a new agenda for research that can reinvigorate and reunite organizational sociology and institutional theory.

     

New tech,old exploitation: Gig economy,algorithmic control and migrant labour

Digital platforms are the newest technological wave that is reshaping and reconfiguring the economic and labour landscape. Digital platforms often known as the gig economy are increasingly adopting app-based models to connect consumers with workers to complete their on-demand tasks. However, on-demand platforms continue to rely on the unequal division of labour and the precarious nature of the work to create labour markets that can respond accordingly to the increase in service provision. This review highlights two main themes that have emerged within the on-demand gig economy in the current literature—mythical autonomy and algorithmic control and misclassification of labour and the complexity of migrant workers in navigating this space. Finally, this review calls for further research into the inside/outside dichotomy of migrant labour within the gig economy and their experiences of labour exploitation through app-based digital platforms.     

A geometric characterization of optimal designs for regression models with correlated observations

We consider the problem of optimal design of experiments for random effects models, especially population models, where a small number of correlated observations can be taken on each individual, while the observations corresponding to different individuals are assumed to be uncorrelated. We focus on c-optimal design problems and show that the classical equivalence theorem and the famous geometric characterization of Elfving (1952) from the case of uncorrelated data can be adapted to the problem of selecting optimal sets of observations for the n individual patients. The theory is demonstrated by finding optimal designs for a linear model with correlated observations and a nonlinear random effects population model, which is commonly used in pharmacokinetics.     

Data‐driven treatment selection for seamless phase II/III trials incorporating early‐outcome data

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials are conducted in two stages with treatment selection at the first stage. In the first stage, patients are randomized to a control or one of k > 1 experimental treatments. At the end of this stage, interim data are analysed, and a decision is made concerning which experimental treatment should continue to the second stage. If the primary endpoint is observable only after some period of follow‐up, at the interim analysis data may be available on some early outcome on a larger number of patients than those for whom the primary endpoint is available. These early endpoint data can thus be used for treatment selection. For two previously proposed approaches, the power has been shown to be greater for one or other method depending on the true treatment effects and correlations. We propose a new approach that builds on the previously proposed approaches and uses data available at the interim analysis to estimate these parameters and then, on the basis of these estimates, chooses the treatment selection method with the highest probability of correctly selecting the most effective treatment. This method is shown to perform well compared with the two previously described methods for a wide range of true parameter values. In most cases, the performance of the new method is either similar to or, in some cases, better than either of the two previously proposed methods. © 2014 The Authors. Pharmaceutical Statistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Failure and maintenance data extraction from power plant maintenance management databases

Reliability analysis is plagued by a lack of accurate data, leading to suboptimal parameter estimates and inaccurate decisions about replacement intervals and preventive maintenance activities. This paper discusses some of the problems associated with failure and maintenance data extraction from coal-fired power plant maintenance databases. Data from four generating units were observed for over 5 years and a reasonable number of equipment classes reviewed. The coal mills are identified as significant equipment that affects the availability of the generating units. This paper describes the interplay of events which includes failure modes, failure, repair and operating time. We investigate a database showing operation of coal mills, and give an exploratory data analysis in which we investigate engineering hypotheses related to mill operation. A competing risk probability model is proposed which captures some of the observed features of the systems under study.     

Service Package Switching in Hotel Revenue Management Systems

Revenue Management Systems (RMS) are commonly used in the hotel industry to maximize revenues in the short term. The forecasting‐allocation module is a key tactical component of a hotel RMS. Forecasting involves estimating demand for service packages across all stayover nights in a planning horizon. A service package is a unique combination of physical room, amenities, room price, and advance purchase restrictions. Allocation involves parsing the room inventory among these service packages to maximize revenues. Previous research and existing revenue management systems assume the demand for a service package to be independent of which service packages are available for sale. We develop a new forecasting‐allocation approach that explicitly accounts for this dependence. We compare the performance of the new approach against a baseline approach using a realistic hotel RMS simulation. The baseline approach reflects previous research and existing industry practice. The new approach produces an average revenue increase of at least 16% across scenarios that reflect existing industry conditions.