Catastrophe avoidance and risk aversion: Implications of formal utility maximization

It is shown that von Neumann-Morgernstern (NM) expected utility maximization, as is currently practised, implies an upper bound on the percentage utility that can be sacrificed to reduce the probability or severity of a catastrophe. The major quantitative result of this paper is a simple tabular (and graphic) presentation of the maximum allowed budget for catastrophe prevention/abatement within the NM framework. The upper limit, which declines in proportion to catastrophe probability, effectively reduces the benefit-cost ratio for catastrophe protection. Use of formal utility maximization methods can thus result in the choice of policies that fail to avoid catastrophes that could be avoided at relatively low cost. Thus the decisions of risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeing utility maximizers tend to converge in catastrophe prone situations. The prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky or the elasticity principle of Bernard offer more flexible options of risk aversion under these circumstances.Professor of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh.PhD candidate in Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh and Assistant Professor, College of Business Administration, University of Nevada, Reno.     

Comparing Nonparametric Estimators for Length-Biased Data

Length-biased data appear when sampling lifetimes by cross-section. Right-censoring may affect the sampled information due to time limitation in following-up, lost to follow-up cases, etc. In this article, we compare by simulations two alternative nonparametric estimators of the lifetime distribution function when the data are length-biased and right-censored. These estimates, recently introduced in the literature, are based on nonparametric maximum-likelihood and moment-based principles. It is shown that the relative benefits associated to each estimator depend on several factors, such as the shape of the underlying distribution, sample size, or censoring level.     

简论直觉顿悟的思维特征和形成基础

直觉顿悟是认识发展和科学创新的重要思维方式,文章从形式的简捷性、过程的不明确性、灵感闪现时的精神恍惚性以及直觉本质的非逻辑性、结论整体的过渡态性质等方面分析了直觉顿悟的思维特征。认识的直觉顿悟不是偶然的,其形成基础是实践积累的“潜知”元素和实践需要激活“潜知”元素的重新组合,也是人们长期专注和沉思某一问题而积累能量释放的结果。     

After inclusion. Thinking with Julian Go's ‘Thinking against empire: Anticolonial thought as social theory’

This contribution engages Go's generative invitation to think against empire by thinking through the epistemic and disciplinary implications of such endeavour. I zoom in on the need to explicitly address the purpose and ethos of scholarly inquiry and how that translates into decolonial academic praxis. Thinking with Go's invitation to think against empire, I feel compelled to constructively engage the limitations and impossibilities of decolonising disciplines such as Sociology. I glean from the various attempts at inclusion and diversity in society and argue that adding or including Anticolonial Social Thought/marginalised voices and peoples in the existing corridors of power—such as canons or advisory boards—is at best a minimal rather than a sufficient condition of decolonisation or going against empire. This raises the question of what comes after inclusion. Rather than offer a ‘correct’ or single alternative anticolonial way, the paper explores the pluriversally inspired method(ological) avenues that appear when we commit to thinking about what happens after inclusion when the goal is decolonisation. I expand on my ‘discovery’ and engagement with the figure and political thought of Thomas Sankara and how this led me to abolitionist thought. The paper then offers a patchwork of methodological considerations when engaging the what, how, why?—questions of research. I engage with questions of purpose, mastery, and colonial science and turn to the generative potential of approaches such as grounding, Connected Sociologies, epistemic Blackness, and curating as methods. Thinking with abolition and Shilliam's (2015) distinction between colonial and decolonial science, between knowledge production and knowledge cultivation, the paper invites us to not only think of what we need to do more of or better when taking Anticolonial Social Thought seriously, but also what we might need to let go of.     

Using social media-based drama therapy and family counselling to treat symptoms of postpartum depression among women

This study examines the impact of social media-based drama therapy and family counselling in reducing symptoms of postpartum depression (PPD) in women aged 18–34. The researchers used a quasi-experimental design and randomly assigned the participants (n = 303) to the control, drama therapy, and family counselling groups. The key findings of the study are as follows. First, at baseline, women not only showed more symptoms of PPD than their male counterparts, but men also reached the PPD threshold of 12/13. Second, the difference between women and men regarding their PPD scores achieved statistical significance (p = 0.004). However, during the post-intervention assessment, men who received drama therapy intervention reported a significant drop in their PPD below the threshold of 12/13. Only women whose spouses received family counselling on spousal support reported a significant drop in their PPD. However, those whose partners did not receive family counselling on spousal support still reported PPD scores within the threshold. In both instances, women in the control group still had high PPD scores. Finally, during the 6-month follow-up assessment, even men in the control group did not have significant symptoms of PPD as their scores dropped below the threshold. On the contrary, women in the control group still had high PPD, indicating that PPD lasted more in women than in men. Also, women whose husbands received family counselling on spousal support reported PPD scores below the threshold. However, women whose husbands did not receive spousal counselling still had PPD scores at the threshold, even though their scores marginally dropped.