Fertility transition in a rural,Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880-1910

The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria's fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. Our results for Bavaria indicate that the European Fertility Project was right about the role of religion and secularization, but missed an important role for the economic and structural effects stressed by economic historians.     

Proxy communication in crisis response

This study analyzes the role of third party crisis communication during the expansive food contamination crisis caused by Peanut Corporation of America (PCA). The information void caused by PCA's mismanagement of the crisis and subsequent reticence was filled by third party organizations serving as proxy crisis communicators. The need for organizations to plan for and engage in proxy communication when organizations in affiliated industries fail to communicate effectively during crises is demonstrated.     

Setting and maintaining standards in menopause care: audit of current practice in a specialist clinic

Standards are an important way of demonstrating quality of care in any given setting. The British Menopause Society (BMS) has produced guidelines as to what should be recorded at the initial menopause consultation. A retrospective audit of case-notes of women attending Poole Menopause Centre was undertaken using these criteria as audit standards. Although areas of good practice were highlighted, the published criteria were met for only five of the 23 standards. An action plan to improve the documentation to achieve these standards has been formulated.     

Families in the Time of the Pandemic: Breakdown or Breakthrough?

The COVID‐19 pandemic has taken a toll on all individuals and their families around the world. Some suffer more adversely than others depending on their unique developmental needs, resources, and resilience. However, instead of breaking down, many families and therapists have hunkered down to cope with this ‘wicked’ situation as it continues to evolve. This article examines the unique challenges and opportunities of COVID‐19 for families at different life developmental stages, as well as the challenges and opportunities for systemic therapists as they venture into unfamiliar territory. Through a case example and by integrating recent literature related to this pandemic, we apply three key and interconnected systemic themes (unsafe uncertainty, family life cycle, and social diversity) to discuss the challenges and opportunities for families and therapists, respectively. We are optimistic that there are many possibilities as families and therapists draw on, and often reinvent, currently available resources to navigate their course in this pandemic. We also find that while the pandemic continues to present unsafe and uncertain situations, there are new ways of being and behaving, especially when families and professionals work together collaboratively. Despite formidable challenges, there are many opportunities, both within families and communities that cut through different social contexts related to family, culture, economics, and even politics. Families and therapists could endure better when they are more cognisant of how and what these contexts may impact and offer them.     

Risk Estimation and Value-of-Information Analysis for Three Proposed Genetic Screening Programs for Chronic Beryllium Disease Prevention

Genetic differences (polymorphisms) among members of a population are thought to influence susceptibility to various environmental exposures. In practice, however, this information is rarely incorporated into quantitative risk assessment and risk management. We describe an analytic framework for predicting the risk reduction and value-of-information (VOI) resulting from specific risk management applications of genetic biomarkers, and we apply the framework to the example of occupational chronic beryllium disease (CBD), an immune-mediated pulmonary granulomatous disease. One described Human Leukocyte Antigen gene variant, HLA-DP beta 1*0201, contains a substitution of glutamate for lysine at position 69 that appears to have high sensitivity (approximately 94%) but low specificity (approximately 70%) with respect to CBD among individuals occupationally exposed to respirable beryllium. The expected postintervention CBD prevalence rates for using the genetic variant (1) as a required job placement screen, (2) as a medical screen for semiannual in place of annual lymphocyte proliferation testing, or (3) as a voluntary job placement screen are 0.08%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, respectively, in a hypothetical cohort with 1% baseline CBD prevalence. VOI analysis is used to examine the reduction in total social cost, calculated as the net value of disease reduction and financial expenditures, expected for proposed CBD intervention programs based on the genetic susceptibility test. For the example cohort, the expected net VOI per beryllium worker for genetically based testing and intervention is $13,000, $1,800, and $5,100, respectively, based on a health valuation of $1.45 million per CBD case avoided. VOI results for alternative CBD evaluations are also presented. Despite large parameter uncertainty, probabilistic analysis predicts generally positive utility for each of the three evaluated programs when avoidance of a CBD case is valued at $1 million or higher. Although the utility of a proposed risk management program may be evaluated solely in terms of risk reduction and financial costs, decisions about genetic testing and program implementation must also consider serious social, legal, and ethical factors.     

Political Experience and Fundraising in City Council Elections

Objective . Despite lack of attention from urban scholars, candidates' fundraising is a critical component of electoral politics in cities. In this research I evaluate the degree to which candidates' political experience is related to fundraising in city council elections. Methods . Multivariate regression is used to test models of city council fundraising in Chicago and Los Angeles. Results . In both cities, fundraising is a function of incumbency and prior experience as a political staff aide. Political endorsements are also important, especially those that come from incumbent politicians. The competitive environment also matters, as nonincumbents in open seat contests raise more than those who challenge incumbents. Conclusions . Fundraising in city council elections is shaped most notably by a combination of political experience and elite endorsements. For nonincumbents, the importance of prior experience on a political staff suggests a certain career trajectory for those seeking city council seats.     

Rationalists, Fatalists, and the Modern Superstitious: Test-Taking in Introductory Sociology

As sociologists we are guided by a rational approach to understanding the social world. This rational approach is also evident in the way we test students. But do students approach tests from the same orientation that we take in creating them, or are they influenced by such nonrational orientations as superstitions? To explore this question the authors created and administered the Luck and Superstition Questionnaire to 426 students taking Introduction to Sociology. We found that nearly 70 percent of students indicate some level of test‐related superstitious practice. However, we also found that superstitious practice was largely unrelated to religious belief and practice, gender and race, educational performance and grade expectations, and end‐of‐semester pressures. These results are entirely consistent with Colin Campbell's theory of modern superstition. Superstitious practice in modern society is self‐sustaining–not integrated into social institutions or systems of belief–and only “half‐believed” by the very practitioners of modern superstition.     

Racial and regional inequalities in school resources relative to their educational outcomes

A definition of inequalities in school inputs weighted according to their importance for educational and outputs is applied to the data from the 1966 Educational Opportunities Survey. The extent and source of inequalities due to race and region are examined. The results are discussed in terms of findings from more restricted definitions of inequalities, and practical policy considerations.     

Selective migration and health in the USA, 1984-93

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigated the impact of health on domestic migration within the USA. We find that, for men below 60 years of age, a move from the middle to the bottom of the health distribution reduces mobility by 32-40 per cent. Non-random attrition from the panel implies that these are lower bounds. By contrast, we find evidence that, among older men, there is higher mobility at the top and bottom of the health distribution than there is in the middle. For women, we find no evidence of a relationship between their own health and mobility, although spouse's health does affect the mobility of married women.