Evaluation of a weighted multiple comparison procedure

We consider the problem of accounting for multiplicity for two correlated endpoints in the comparison of two treatments using weighted hypothesis tests. Various weighted testing procedures are reviewed, and a more powerful method (a variant of the weighted Simes test) is evaluated for the general bivariate normal case and for a particular clinical trial example. Results from these evaluations are summarized and indicate that the weighted methods perform in a manner similar to unweighted methods. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for Learning to Learn Behavior in Normal Form Games

Evidence presented in Salmon (2001; Econometrica 69(6) 1597) indicates that typical tests to identify learning behavior in experiments involving normal form games possess little power to reject incorrect models. This paper begins by presenting results from an experiment designed to gather alternative data to overcome this problem. The results from these experiments indicate support for a learning-to-learn or rule learning hypothesis in which subjects change their decision rule over time. These results are then used to construct an adaptive learning model which is intended to mimic more accurately the behavior observed. The final section of the paper presents results from a simple simulation based analysis comparing the performance of this adaptive learning model with that of several standard decision rules in reproducing the choice patterns observed in the experiment.JEL Classification: C92, C72     

Managing unmanageable physicians: leadership, stewardship and disruptive behavior

Physician executives would undoubtedly prefer to spend the bulk of their time inspiring great employees and building productive teams instead of struggling with disruptive physician behavior. Explore ways to diminish the frequency and intensity of disruptive behavior in your organization and identify your role, rights, responsibilities and accountabilities as a physician leader.     

On Weighing Gains and Investments at the Margin of Risk Regulation

Analysts have long noted an apparent discrepancy in the level of investment seemingly necessary to meet "acceptable" levels of public safety. At the margin of risk regulation, i.e., where safety determination is judged acceptable, the traditional cost-benefit calculus appears to contribute obvious rationale to the final political decision. Efforts are now being made to introduce a measure of consistency into the application of risk-cost benefit analysis to radiological protection. This paper reviews these efforts from a UK perspective. It also looks at how the issue was treated in a public setting through the Sizewell B Public Inquiry.     

Archetype Change in Professional Organizations: Survey Evidence from Large Law Firms

This paper examines the proposition that the traditional archetype of the professional partnership is said to have changed into a more 'business-like' entity, the managed professional business. It broadens the restricted case sample base on which much of the evidence has been adduced, by developing a survey questionnaire through which 197 large British law firms were sampled. Change, consistent with the notion of a more commercially oriented and consciously managed organization, is concentrated in the market-facing area of the firm but coexists with areas of continuity in the governance of the firm and its strategic management. The findings reveal a more managerial form of organization in which the core elements of the traditional form of professional organization have not been transformed. These results contest the assertion of either transformational or sedimented change found in other, case-based research and suggest that archetype change needs theoretically to be distinguished from the general phenomenon of greater managerialism within the professional service firm.     

A COMPARISON OF DIRECT COST SAVINGS BETWEEN FLEXIBLE AUTOMATION AND LABOR WITH LEARNING

This paper compares flexible automation with labor‐intensive manufacturing processes in a batch production environment and considers learning, forgetting, inventory carrying costs, setup costs, production demand volume, previous production experience, and the proportion of material to labor cost. While flexible automation typically can reduce setup times, and therefore inventory carrying costs through smaller optimal batch sizes, the results of this research show that the effect of forgetting on relative cost savings is difficult to predict in some situations. When using optimal lot sizes in both the automated and labor environments, cost savings from flexible automation may be smaller than expected or may occur in different ways than anticipated.     

Complacency in Process Safety: A Behavior Analysis Toward Prevention Strategies

ABSTRACT

Complacency inhibits safe behaviors of workers and managers. This is of concern to industries where process safety is needed to reduce the chance of catastrophic events such as fires and explosions. A behavioral definition of complacency is offered as trending behavioral variation that eventually exceeds safety boundaries. Behavioral processes that contribute to these patterns of variability are discussed and analyzed, including habituation, extinction, unprogrammed reinforcement, the avoidance paradox, rule-governed behavior, and competing contingencies of production. Solution strategies are suggested that address this analysis of behavioral variance, including pinpointing behavioral variation related to safety, changing training design, strengthening positive reinforcement for process-related behaviors of workers and management, reducing sources of unprogrammed reinforcement for dangerous variation, strengthening rule-governed behavior, and changing contingencies for managers and executives whose decisions affect behavior and process safety at many levels in the company.     

The Auditor's Going-Concern Disclosure as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis*

The question of how an auditor's going-concern disclosure affects a client's future operations has long troubled the auditing profession. In an attempt to provide further understanding of this issue, we introduce Discrete-Time Survival Analysis (DTSA) to examine the aftermath of 231 first-time going-concern disclosures on clients' subsequent continuance. DTSA represents a significant refinement over traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic (LOGIT) regression in that it provides not only a probability estimate, but also an estimate of the timing of the event occurrence. The addition of this extra dimension (event timing) aids decision makers by providing more complete information about event probabilities. Consistent with the “self-fulfilling prophecy effect,” the risk profiles developed from DTSA indicate that the first year subsequent to the initial going-concern disclosure was the most dangerous in terms of risk of bankruptcy. However, after the first year, the incidence of bankruptcy decreases significantly. Thus, DTSA is able to provide a richer perspective on this perplexing issue than previously considered.