Comparing Expressed and Revealed Preferences for Risk Reduction: Different Hazards and Question Frames

Studies often note the wide differences that exist in costs per death avoided across U.S. federal programs and regulatory contexts. This paper explores two new, related explanations for these differences. First, it argues that the patterns of revealed preferences (public allocations) may be related to public values, which are measured here through subjects' expressed preference responses to a contingent valuation survey regarding risk reduction. Subjects' expressed values are compared to actual (and proposed) costs of safety regulations for a similar set of hazards. We discover strong congruence in the ranking of expressed values and actual values. Second, the paper presents the results of a subsequent survey that investigates why the patterns observed in the first survey might occur. It suggests that one reason for the observed similarities between revealed and expressed preferences may be in how choices are framed. The paper hypothesizes that both subjects and decision makers may frame valuation decisions in the same way: as percentage changes from the reference point provided by the base rate of deaths for that hazard.     

How Close Is Close Enough: Public Perceptions of the Risks of Industrial Facilities

Public opinion poll data have consistently shown that the proportion of respondents who are willing to have a nuclear power plant in their own community is smaller than the proportion who agree that more nuclear plants should be built in this country. Respondents' judgments of the minimum safe distance from each of eight hazardous facilities confirmed that this finding results from perceived risk gradients that differ by facility (e.g., nuclear vs. natural gas power plants) and social group (e.g., chemical engineers vs. environmentalists) but are relatively stable over time. Ratings of the facilities on thirteen perceived risk dimensions were used to determine whether any of the dimensions could explain the distance data. Because the rank order of the facilities with respect to acceptable distance was very similar to the rank order on a number of the perceived risk dimensions, it is difficult to determine which of the latter is the critical determinant of acceptable distance if, indeed, there is only one. There were, however, a number of reversals of rank order that indicate that the respondents had a differentiated view of technological risk. Finally, data from this and other studies were interpreted as suggesting that perceived lack of any other form of personal control over risk exposure may be an important factor in stimulating public opposition to the siting of hazardous facilities.     

The De/Repoliticization of Cooperation and the Discourse of Conversion1

Abstract In recent years, several agricultural cooperatives have undergone significant restructuring. Some have been taken through a conversion process and have been reorganized as “investor-oriented firms” (IOFs). This phenomenon has attracted the interest of agricultural economists, but it has not been analyzed by sociologists. This article examines the discourse with which agricultural economists have approached the conversion issue. Drawing upon Fraser's discussion of “needs talk,” and inspired by Kloppenburg's analysis of the agricultural scientific complex, an argument is made that a reprivatization discourse of neoclassical economics has effectively depoliticized discussion about the future of cooperative enterprise. It is further argued that a repoliticization of cooperation is necessary in order to assure the protection of extra-economic values and oppositional discourse that is embedded in the historical development of cooperative practices and institutions. We focus here on the role of expert discourse as it relates to the reinvention of cooperative institutions in the agricultural economy. It is argued that this discourse would be improved by greater attention to historical and sociological forces, rather than remaining narrowly focused on economism.     

What is to be done about unemployment?

The rate of unemployment in Britain has been rising, and will doubtless continue to rise for the foreseeable future. On present trends any significant fall in the rate of unemployment appears improbable. We face the prospect of unemployment in the 1980s as severe as that experienced in the 1930s when only at its worst did the rate rise to the equivalent of nearly four million in today's terms. Against this background it is natural to despair of solutions. Certainly we cannot provide a policy which will produce an immediate return to ‘full employment’. but there are opportunities available for appreciably improving employment prospects. Particular policies are discussed and recommended in this paper, and the initiative has to be taken now.     

Determinants of sexual arousal and accuracy of its self-estimation in sexually functional males

Men with and without sexual dysfunction present with varying patterns of agreement between subjective estimates of sexual arousal and more objective psychophysiological measures of the same construct. This relative accuracy seems to be associated with sexual function, with men who have sexual dysfunction presenting less accurate estimations (mostly reporting below measured arousal levels). The purpose of this study is to clarify the processes underlying sexual arousal and the accuracy of its self-estimation. We looked at potential predictors of sexual arousal (subjective and physiological) and accuracy in estimating objective sexual arousal in a sample of 60 sexually functional males. Predictors included pre-existing sexual attitudes (erotophobia), both trait and state positive and negative affect, self-focused attention, and interoceptive awareness. Results indicate that this sexually functional sample generally reported below their own erection level. Interestingly, trait negative affect was associated with somewhat lower levels of subjective arousal and higher levels of physiological arousal. On the other hand, state positive affect facilitated both subjective and objective arousal and increased somewhat the accuracy of estimates of erectile responding. Pre-existing sexual attitudes as well as variations in self-focused attention and interoceptive awareness evidenced little effect on sexual arousal or the accuracy of its estimation.     

Family member response to violent infant kidnapping

All family members interviewed suffered from chronic posttraumatic stress disorder 5 or more years after an infant kidnapping. Psychiatric nurses should routinely assess for secondary victimization related to any type of traumatic stressor. Nurses should refer parents and families to materials available from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC) (http://www.missingkids.com/).     

Lorenz non-consistent welfare and inequality measurement

Typical welfare and inequality measures are required to be Lorenz consistent which guarantees that inequality decreases and welfare increases as a result of a progressive transfer. We explore the implications for welfare and inequality measurement of substituting the weaker absolute differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings for the Lorenz quasi-ordering. Restricting attention to distributions of equal means, we show that the utilitarian model – the so-called expected utility model in the theory of risk – does not permit one to make a distinction between the views embedded in the differentials, deprivation and Lorenz quasi-orderings. In contrast it is possible within the dual model of M. Yaari (Econometrica 55 (1987), 99–115) to derive the restrictions to be placed on the weighting function which guarantee that the corresponding welfare orderings are consistent with the differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings respectively. Finally we drop the equal mean condition and indicate the implications of our approach for the absolute ethical inequality indices.     

Simulation for the complex Bingham distribution

The complex Bingham distribution is relevant for the shape analysis of landmark data in two dimensions. In this paper it is shown that the problem of simulating from this distribution reduces to simulation from a truncated multivariate exponential distribution. Several simulation methods are described and their efficiencies are compared.