The wild bootstrap for multivariate Nelson–Aalen estimators

Lifetime Data Analysis - We rigorously extend the widely used wild bootstrap resampling technique to the multivariate Nelson–Aalen estimator under Aalen’s multiplicative intensity...     

Die Implementierung neuer Konzepte zur Beschulung von Flüchtlingen und Asylsuchenden – Herausforderungen und Chancen aus organisationstheoretischer PerspektiveImplementing of education programs for refugees and asylumseekers – Challenges and chances in the lights of organiational theory

During the last year the amount of refugees and asylum seekers has increased tremendously all over the world. Many refugees arrived in Germany asking for help and integration. Politicians were challenged to offer educational programs in particular for the young, (un-) accompanied minors. In Bavaria an extensive vocational education program has been developed and started to be established under tremendous time pressure. However, the implementation process challenges government officials, principals, teachers as well as social workers. Results of our Delphi-Study confirm that these groups of agents had to deal with many problems, but also perceive great opportunities. In this paper chances and problems of implementing this vocational education program all over Bavaria are discussed in the light of organizational approaches. The results show that typical phases of unfreezing, moving and refreezing emerged simultaneously. Currently, we see many indicators of the moving phase and some of the refreezing phase. However, it is not possible to predict the end of the refreezing phase.     

Fehlinterpretationen der Weltgesellschaftstheorie

The article responds to a critical discussion of sociological world society research and our article “What makes globalization possible?” (KZfSS 63/2011) by Markus Holzinger in the present issue of this journal. We repeat the central point made in our earlier article: that world society theories should be seen and used as a heuristic device to develop a historical sociology of globalization, rather than transferring obsolete controversies within sociological theory to yet another research field. To make this point, we (2) recapitulate our article, showing where and how we see it as being misrepresented in Holzinger’s article. Against this background, we (3) discuss a typical research interest of world society theories—the relationship between global structures (expectations, institutions) and the local appropriation of (or dissociation from) them—using the example of the decoupling-thesis by the Stanford School.     

Population aging and environmental quality in OECD countries: evidence from sulfur dioxide emissions data

Recent literature has suggested that population aging may shape energy demand and related emissions. Recent scholarship also suggests that emissions play a role in contemporary climate change and, as such, understanding the effect of population compositional change has considerable environmental policy importance. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the macro-level relationship between population aging and emissions of sulfur dioxide. We extend a standard macroeconomic estimation function by including the age composition of the population. In doing so, we separate, for the first time in the literature on aging and the environment, the life-cycle dimension of the age structure from its cohort dimension. We utilize data representing a balanced panel of 25 OECD countries during the period from 1970 to 2000. Consistent with our expectations, we find that societies with a low proportion of young and a high proportion of senior citizens emit more sulfur dioxide. At the same time, our results suggest that a high proportion of individuals born before 1960 is positively correlated to national sulfur dioxide emissions. Our study contributes to understanding of past emission patterns in OECD countries and the findings may allow for improvements in future emission projections.     

Immigration and Identity in Britain

This article explores responses to modernity and the challenge it poses to identity in Japan through the works of the poet Hagiwara Sakutaro?. It concludes by arguing that, inspired by Sakutaro?'s call to ‘return to Japan’, the Japanese Romantics transformed Japan into a spiritual project of overcoming the modern and the West – thus being superior – through the nostalgic construction of a cultural essence.     

Ethnocentrism versus group-specific stereotyping in immigration opinion: cross-national evidence on the distinctiveness of immigrant groups

While widespread resistance to immigration is well established in advanced democracies around the world, the role of group-specific stereotyping in anti-immigration sentiment has received limited attention. We derive a novel measurement model to assess stereotyping in three Anglo-Saxon democracies – the US, Canada, and the UK – of the modal outgroup in each country (Hispanics in the US and South Asians in Canada and the UK) and Middle Easterners/Muslims. We show that considerable variation exists in degree of stereotyping against the two major immigrant groups. In the US case, we additionally document over-time variation in group stereotyping. In a final step, we demonstrate a relationship between group antipathies and immigration policy views, akin to other policy domains in which public support varies by the ethnic characteristics of policy beneficiaries. To our knowledge, this study is the first to map stereotypes of Muslims in the US in a comparative setting and over time after 09/11, and amongst the first to link views on immigration policies to group-based stereotypes.     

Generalization and efficient computation of the box-meyer analysis for orthogonal designs

Box and Meyer (1986) [1] proposed a Bayesian analysis for saturated orthogonal dedigns, based on the widely-used method of examining normal plots of effects estimates. Stephenson, Hulting, and Moore (1989) [5] give an algorithm for computing this analysis, but it can be quite slow for even 2⁵ designs. In this paper we extend the technique to cover all orthogonal factorial designs, rather than just saturated ones, and we show how the computational algorithm can be greatly improved, both in terms of accuracy and speed. With these extensions and improvements the Box-Meyer method becomes viable as a technique for interactive analysis of any orthogonal factorial design, not just small, saturated ones.     

Win statistics (win ratio,win odds,and net benefit) can complement one another to show the strength of the treatment effect on time-to-event outcomes

Conventional analyses of a composite of multiple time-to-event outcomes use the time to the first event. However, the first event may not be the most important outcome. To address this limitation, generalized pairwise comparisons and win statistics (win ratio, win odds, and net benefit) have become popular and have been applied to clinical trial practice. However, win ratio, win odds, and net benefit have typically been used separately. In this article, we examine the use of these three win statistics jointly for time-to-event outcomes. First, we explain the relation of point estimates and variances among the three win statistics, and the relation between the net benefit and the Mann–Whitney U statistic. Then we explain that the three win statistics are based on the same win proportions, and they test the same null hypothesis of equal win probabilities in two groups. We show theoretically that the Z-values of the corresponding statistical tests are approximately equal; therefore, the three win statistics provide very similar p-values and statistical powers. Finally, using simulation studies and data from a clinical trial, we demonstrate that, when there is no (or little) censoring, the three win statistics can complement one another to show the strength of the treatment effect. However, when the amount of censoring is not small, and without adjustment for censoring, the win odds and the net benefit may have an advantage for interpreting the treatment effect; with adjustment (e.g., IPCW adjustment) for censoring, the three win statistics can complement one another to show the strength of the treatment effect. For calculations we use the R package WINS, available on the CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive Network).     

Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle

We investigate how banks’ boundedly rational learning influences their views about default risks over the business cycle. Our analysis details the direction and the magnitude of these effects assuming that banks update probability in a Bayesian way. With a limited experience span lenders are liable to overestimate (underestimate) losses from defaulting loans early (late) in the boom. Depending on their experience span, banks turn over-optimistic and underprice default risk 3–5 years into the boom. During recessions an overpricing of risk begins just quarters into the recession. Our simulations are calibrated with U.S. data and provide evidence for the view that banks contribute to excessive lending during the upswing and to credit crunches in recessions.