Indigenous Australian population projections: problems and prospects

According to estimates from the 2006 Census, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians made up 2.5 % of the total Australian population. However, the focus of research and policy debate on Indigenous Australians far exceeds their population size for reasons of history, socio-economics, geography and demography. This has led to a need for accurate population projections of the population. In this paper, we outline a number of issues related to Indigenous population projections. These include the nature of self-identification; the impact of particular policy changes; significant differences in demographic parameters; and high rates of exogamy, especially in urban areas. We also document the relative accuracy of past and current population projections. In the final section of the paper we outline a research agenda that has the potential to lead to new and better Indigenous population projections.     

Conversational evidence in therapeutic dialogue

Family therapists' participation in therapeutic dialogue with clients is typically informed by evidence of how such dialogue is developing. In this article, we propose that conversational evidence, the kind that can be empirically analyzed using discourse analyses, be considered a contribution to widening psychotherapy's evidence base. After some preliminaries about what we mean by conversational evidence, we provide a genealogy of evaluative practice in psychotherapy, and examine qualitative evaluation methods for their theoretical compatibilities with social constructionist approaches to family therapy. We then move on to examine the notion of accomplishment in therapeutic dialogue given how such accomplishments can be evaluated using conversation analysis. We conclude by considering a number of research and pedagogical implications we associate with conversational evidence.     

An Introduction to ‘Benefit of the Doubt’ Composite Indicators

Despite their increasing use, composite indicators remain controversial. The undesirable dependence of countries’ rankings on the preliminary normalization stage, and the disagreement among experts/stakeholders on the specific weighting scheme used to aggregate sub-indicators, are often invoked to undermine the credibility of composite indicators. Data envelopment analysis may be instrumental in overcoming these limitations. One part of its appeal in the composite indicator context stems from its invariance to measurement units, which entails that a normalization stage can be skipped. Secondly, it fills the informational gap in the ‘right’ set of weights by generating flexible ‘benefit of the doubt’-weights for each evaluated country. The ease of interpretation is a third advantage of the specific model that is the main focus of this paper. In sum, the method may help to neutralize some recurring sources of criticism on composite indicators, allowing one to shift the focus to other, and perhaps more essential stages of their construction. An abridged version of this paper was presented at the Workshop on European Indicators and Scoreboards, organised by DG Education and the Joint Research Centre within the auspices of CRELL, in Brussels, October 24–25, 2005.     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

Transitions in welfare participation and female headship

This study uses data from the 1990, 1992, 1993 and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship and into and out of welfare participation. It also examines whether welfare participation is directly associated with longer spells of headship. The study employs a simultaneous hazards approach that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity in all of its transition models and for the endogeneity of welfare participation in its headship model. The estimation results indicate that welfare participation significantly reduces the chances of leaving female headship. The estimates also reveal that more generous welfare benefits do not directly contribute to headship but rather contribute indirectly to headship by increasing the chances that a mother will enter welfare and consequently remain a single mother for longer. More generous Earned Income Tax Credit benefits are associated with more stable arrangements for both headship and welfare participation. Other measures of welfare policies, including indicators for the adoption of welfare waivers and the implementation of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, are generally not significantly associated with headship or welfare receipt. Better economic opportunities are estimated to increase headship but reduce welfare participation among unmarried mothers.     

Observed Infant Reactions During Live Interparental Conflict

Associations between interparental conflict and infant reactions were examined. Infants' history of exposure to interparental conflict and infant reactive temperament were examined as moderators. A community sample of 74 infants, aged 6–14 months, participated with their parents. Behavioral observations were made of parents' marital conflict and their infants' reactions. Parents reported on their emotional states during conflict, infants' history of exposure to interparental conflict, and infant temperament. Multilevel modeling indicated that infants showed differential responses to marital conflict; destructive and depressive conflict were associated with increased infant discussion attending and negative reactions, whereas constructive conflict was associated with decreased discussion attending and negative reactions. Infants' history of exposure to marital conflict and infant reactive temperament emerged as moderators.     

A survey of social media use, motivation and leadership among public relations practitioners

This study investigates the relationship between motivation, leadership and social media use among a sample of public relations practitioners who recently had begun using Twitter to follow Universal Accreditation Board (UAB)-affiliated organizations. A majority of the survey respondents were classified as “everyday users.” A series of Twitter leadership indicators correlated positively with internal motivation and correlated negatively with amotivation. Several word-of-mouth variables also were investigated with regard to motivation.     

Developing a factor model of coal miners’ attributions on risk-taking at work

This paper details a survey of coal miners’ views on the bases for risk-taking. While literature exists on the subject of risk-taking in mines, comparatively few studies have sought to elicit the views of mine personnel themselves. An 83-item questionnaire, grounded upon insights from an earlier qualitative study, was developed and distributed to a sample of mine personnel (N=932). Results were analysed by means of principal components, factor analysis, an iterative refinement of the data set resulting in the development of a three-factor model that was considered to reflect potentially important dispositional influences on risk-taking amongst operational staff in mines. Derived constructs, identified as time pressure, management commitment and confidence in ability to control risk, were found to possess moderate to high levels of internal consistency (α statistic) and high face validity. Findings are discussed with reference to insights from both cognitive risk research and more recent work within the safety culture/climate framework.