Best linear predictors for factor scores

From the literature three types of predictors for factor scores are available. These are characterized by the constraints: linear, linear conditionally unbiased, and linear correlation preserving. Each of these constraints generates a class of predictors. Best predictors are defined in terms of Lowner's partial matrix order applied to matrices of mean square error of prediction. It is shown that within the first two classes a best predictor exists and that it does not exist in the third.     

College and university compliance with a required meningococcal vaccination law

OBJECTIVE: Maryland became the first state to pass a vaccination law requiring college and university students living on campus to obtain a meningococcal vaccination or to sign a waiver refusing vaccination because college students are at increased risk for disease. The authors sought to identify how Maryland colleges addressed the law and determine whether schools were in full compliance. PARTICIPANTS: The authors surveyed 32 college/university administrators via a self-administered questionnaire. METHODS: The authors calculated vaccination and waiver rates and assessed compliance with the law overall and with specific law components. RESULTS: Among 28 participating schools, annual vaccination rates and waiver rates among students during 2000-2004 ranged from 66%-76% and 12%-17%, respectively. Two (7%) schools were compliant with all components of the law. CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory vaccination laws do not ensure compliance at the college and university level. Mandatory reporting, increased education, and collaboration between colleges and universities and public health agencies are needed.     

Functional benefit of power training for older adults

Aging leads to significant losses in muscle mass, strength, and the ability to independently perform activities of daily living (ADL). Typically, standard resistance training (RT) has been used to reduce these losses in function by maintaining or even increasing muscle strength in older adults. Increasing strength does not necessarily, however, result in an increase in the ability to perform ADL. There is now research suggesting that muscle power is more closely associated with the performance of ADL than muscle strength is, so training for muscle power might lead to more beneficial results in functional performance. This review of studies investigating the effect of training on ADL performance in older adults indicated that standard RT is effective in increasing strength in older adults, but power training that contains high-velocity contractions might be a more optimal means of training older adults when the emphasis is on increasing the performance of ADL.     

Social innovation and the autoimmunity of employability

The purpose of this article is to examine social innovation in the field of youth employment. It addresses both the shortcomings of supply-side approaches that are balanced towards issues such as employability and the impact of key demand side issues including low pay and precarity. The empirical analysis is based upon interviews with young people in employment or training with social innovations as well as interviews with senior policymakers and practitioners whose remit covers these issues. The study concludes by reflecting upon how the conduct of employability can operate as an autoimmune function.     

OLS and IV estimation of regression models including endogenous interaction terms

We analyze a class of linear regression models including interactions of endogenous regressors and exogenous covariates. We show how to generate instrumental variables using the nonlinear functional form of the structural equation when traditional excluded instruments are unknown. We propose to use these instruments with identification robust IV inference. We furthermore show that, whenever functional form identification is not valid, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator of the coefficient of the interaction term is consistent and standard OLS inference applies. Using our alternative empirical methods we confirm recent empirical findings on the nonlinear causal relation between financial development and economic growth.     

Protecting and Benchmarking Migrants’ Rights: An Analysis of the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) was to be “guided by human rights law and standards” in recognition of the rights of international migrants, who are currently protected by an overlapping patchwork of treaties and international law. The GCM contains many laudable commitments that, if implemented, will ensure that states more consistently respect, protect, and fulfil the rights of all migrants and also that states incorporate data on migration into a more cohesive governance regime that does more to promote cooperation on the issue of international migration. However, many concerns remain. Using a legal analysis and cross‐national policy data, we find that the GCM neither fully articulates existing law nor makes use of international consensus to expand the rights of migrants. In its first section, this article provides a concise analysis of the GCM's compliance with a set of core principles of existing international human rights law regarding migrants. In the second section, we apply a novel instrument to create an objective, cross‐national accounting of the laws protecting migrants’ rights in various national legal frameworks. Focusing on a sample of five diverse destination and sending countries, the results suggest we are close to an international consensus on the protection of a core set of migrants’ rights. This analysis should help prioritize the work necessary to implement the GCM.     

The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?

Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so‐called lowest‐low‐fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest‐fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest‐low‐fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important.     

Piloting different approaches to personalised offender management in the English criminal justice system

Various approaches to personalisation are well-established in the UK social care sector and are now starting to ‘travel’ to other sectors. In this paper we report findings from an evaluation of a pilot to test elements of personalisation in the management of offenders in probation services within the English criminal justice system. Following a review of evidence from social care, three different approaches to personalised-practice were developed and tested on a small-scale in three separate sites. The evaluation finds that all three approaches were implemented reasonably successfully, but challenges were identified including that personalised approaches are more time-consuming, that staff need support to exercise professional discretion and that balancing greater choice with managing criminogenic risk requires new ways of conceptualising the relationship between case manager and service user. Overall, ‘deeper’ approaches to personalisation, such as co-production, will take time to emerge. This paper makes two important contributions to the debate on personalisation in public services. First, it addresses the question of how transferable the concept of personalisation is from the social care sector to other sectors in the UK, in this case the criminal justice system. Secondly, it outlines a methodology for developing and evaluating personalisation pilots, prior to a wider roll-out.     

Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.