Tâches,professions et salaires dans les pays de l'OCDE

Les auteurs examinent la relation entre les gains, le capital humain et les tâches. Ils reprennent le modèle théorique d'Autor et Handel (2013), tout en élargissant l'analyse empirique à 21 pays, grâce aux données de l'enquête de l'OCDE sur les compétences des adultes (PIAAC). Celles‐ci permettent en outre de caractériser plus précisément le capital humain des travailleurs, en fournissant une mesure directe des compétences cognitives. L'analyse empirique confirme l'influence du contenu en tâches de l'emploi sur les écarts de salaire, à la fois entre les catégories professionnelles et en leur sein. Les prédictions du modèle se vérifient dans la grande majorité des pays.     

Responding to (un)reasonable requests by an authority

Theory and Decision - We consider the notions of static and dynamic reasonableness of requests by an authority in a trust game experiment. The authority, modeled as the experimenter, systematically...     

Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components

This paper raises some interpretative issues that arise from univariate trend-cycle decompositions with correlated disturbances. In particular, it discusses whether the interpretation of a negative correlation as providing evidence for the prominence of real, or supply, shocks, can be supported.

For this purpose it determines the conditions under which correlated components may originate from the underestimation of the cyclical component in an orthogonal decomposition; from the presence of a growth rate cycle, rather than a deviation cycle; or alternatively, as a consequence of the hysteresis phenomenon. Finally, it considers interpreting correlated components in terms of permanent-transitory decompositions, where the permanent component has richer dynamics than a pure random walk.

The consequences for smoothing and signal extraction are discussed: in particular, it is documented that a negative correlation implies that future observations carry most of the information needed to assess cyclical stance. As a result, the components will be subject to underestimation in real time and thus to high revisions. The overall conclusion is that the characterization of economic fluctuations in macroeconomic time series largely remains an open issue.     

Dynamic factor analysis with non-linear temporal aggregation constraints

Summary.  The paper estimates an index of coincident economic indicators for the US economy by using time series with different frequencies of observation (monthly and quarterly, possibly with missing values). The model that is considered is the dynamic factor model that was proposed by Stock and Watson, specified in the logarithms of the original variables and at the monthly frequency, which poses a problem of temporal aggregation with a non-linear observational constraint when quarterly time series are included. Our main methodological contribution is to provide an exact solution to this problem that hinges on conditional mode estimation by iteration of the extended Kalman filtering and smoothing equations. On the empirical side the contribution of the paper is to provide monthly estimates of quarterly indicators, among which is the gross domestic product, that are consistent with the quarterly totals. Two applications are considered: the first dealing with the construction of a coincident index for the US economy, whereas the second does the same with reference to the euro area.     

Constrained retropolation of high-frequency data using related series: A simple dynamic model approach

The static approach by Chow and Lin (1971) to temporal disaggregation of an economic series by related indicators is extended to back-calculate high-frequency data constrained to their low-frequency counterpart according to a simple dynamic model. I wish to thank Fabio Sartori and an anonymous referee for useful comments on a previous version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Well-Being in Italian Regions. Measures,Civil Society Consultation and Evidence

Efforts recently attempted to integrate various aspects of economic progress, environmental sustainability and social welfare into an aggregate measure of well-being share one major weakness concerning the identification of key aspects of well-being and of weights to aggregate these dimensions, they all suffer from lack of legitimacy. In this paper we present an innovative and well tested approach that attempts to overcome such limitation granting legitimacy through a broad consultation of civil society organisations. After a brief review of the state of the art, we present the methodology followed to build the QUARS (Index of Regional Quality of Development) and we point out strengths and weaknesses of our approach. We summarize the results according to the selected variables for Italian regions, we present the outcomes of our dissemination work and assess the robustness of the composite indicator.     

Minimax type procedures for nonparametric selection of the “best” population with partially classified data

Consider a sequence x ≡ (x₁,…, x_n) of n independent observations, in which each observation x_i is known to be a realization from either one of k_i given populations, chosen among k (≥ k_i) populations π₁, …, π_k Our main objective is to study the problem of the selection of the most reliable population π_j at a fixed time ξ, when no assumptions about the k populations are made. Some numerical examples are presented.     

HOUSING FINANCE AND MONETARY POLICY

We document three facts concerning how the structure of housing finance affects the monetary transmission mechanism: first, the characteristics of residential mortgage markets differ markedly across industrialized countries; second, the impact of monetary policy shocks to residential investment and house prices is significantly stronger in those countries with larger flexibility/development of mortgage markets; third, the transmission to consumption is stronger only in those countries where mortgage equity release is common and mortgage contracts are predominantly of the variable‐rate type. We then build a two‐sector DSGE model with financial constraints to rationalize those facts.     

Sampling hierarchies of discrete random structures

Statistics and Computing - Hierarchical normalized discrete random measures identify a general class of priors that is suited to flexibly learn how the distribution of a response variable changes...     

A mind in a disk: the attribution of mental states to technological systems

This paper reports a study about the role of different variables in the process of attributing mental states to technological systems, variables such as the number of figural elements displayed in the system and the personality traits of the subjects interacting with the systems. In an experiment, participants were interacting with a computer on whose screen several disks of various sizes and colours were blinking at different rates. Each time a disk reappeared on the screen its position was randomly varied. As in a videogame, participants had to click on the disks to increase their score. The results showed that, even in the case of such a simple system, subjects believed that the figural elements they were interacting with had some form of mental states, although their confidence in these beliefs varied in the different experimental conditions. The confidence level of the attributions, in fact, was not the same for all the different mental states considered, and it varied also both with the number of elements being displayed as well as with some personality traits of the subjects.