Equilibrium unemployment and the duration of unemployment benefits

This paper uses microdata to evaluate the impact on the steady-state unemployment rate of an increase in maximum benefit duration. We evaluate a policy change in Austria that extended maximum benefit duration and use this policy change to estimate the causal impact of benefit duration on labor market flows. We find that the policy change leads to a significant increase in the steady-state unemployment rate and, surprisingly, most of this increase is due to an increase in the inflow into rather than the outflow from unemployment.     

Couples relationship standards and satisfaction in Pakistani couples

Relationship standards are beliefs about what is important in a satisfying couple relationship, which vary considerably between cultures, and might mean that what couples seek from couple therapy differs across cultures. We assessed the standards of n = 49 Pakistani couples and whether those standards predicted couple satisfaction. To provide referents for the Pakistani standards, we also assessed selfreported relationship standards in n = 33 Western couples and n = 30 Chinese couples. Pakistani couples endorsed couple bond standards (e.g., expressions of love) as similarly important, and family responsibility (e.g., extended family relations) standards as more important, than Western or Chinese couples. In Pakistani couples, Couple Bond predicted couples' relationship satisfaction, but family responsibility and Religion predicted only wives' satisfaction. Modest sample sizes necessitate caution in interpreting results but suggest existing couple therapies might need modification to address the distinctive relationship standards of Pakistani couples.     

Screening for disruptive behavior in adolescents at risk using the strengths and difficulties questionnaire

Disruptive behavior in adolescents is burdensome and may continue into adulthood if left unidentified. The strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ) can screen for disruptive behavior, but its psychometric properties in high-risk samples and ability to predict delinquency warrant further investigation. In 1022 adolescents, we investigated the predictive validity (on average 1.9 years after screening) of the self-reported SDQ on disruptive behavior disorders and delinquency, measured with multi-informant questionnaires and structured interviews. We compared three scoring methods: total, subscale, and dysregulation profile scoring. In this high-risk sample, SDQ subscale scores predicted disruptive behavior outcomes best. Predictive values for the specific types of delinquency were small. Concluding, the SDQ can be used in high-risk settings for early identification of youth with disruptive behavior.     

Children’s Recognition and Discrimination of Fear and Disgust Facial Expressions

Facial expressions of fear and disgust have repeatedly been found to be less well recognized than those of other basic emotions by children. We undertook two studies in which we investigated the recognition and visual discrimination of these expressions in school-age children. In Study 1, children (5, 6, 9, and 10 years of age) were shown pairs of facial expressions, and asked to tell which one depicted a target emotion. The results indicated that accuracy in 9- and 10-year-olds was higher than in 5- and 6-year-olds for three contrasts: disgust–anger, fear–surprise, and fear–sadness. Younger children had more difficulty recognizing disgust when it was presented along with anger, and in recognizing fear when it was presented along with surprise. In Study 2, children (5, 6, 9, and 10 years of age) were shown a target expression along with two other expressions, and were asked to point to the expression that was the most similar to the target. Contrary to our expectations, even 5- and 6-year-olds were very accurate in discriminating fear and disgust from the other emotions, suggesting that visual perception was not the main limiting factor for the recognition of these emotions in school-age children.     

Factors associated with placement breakdown initiated by foster parents – empirical findings from Germany

This study investigates the effects of covariates on the probability of placement breakdown in non‐kinship family foster care. Breakdowns are distinguished according to the initiator: children, carers, foster parents and the local child welfare authorities. The children concerned had entered foster care at ages ranging from 0 to a maximum of 17 years (n = 14 171). A significantly higher risk of breakdown on the initiative of the foster parents is found in male children, children whose parents receive financial support, children whose parents were removed from the register of carers, children who were between 6 and 15 years old when they joined the foster family, children who had earlier lived in a different foster family or residential care, children from patchwork families and children whose joining of a foster family was the result of disruptive social behaviour. Two‐thirds of the children from non‐kinship family foster care who stay in the foster family was ended on the initiative of the foster parents are subsequently looked after in residential care. That is three times the rate for all terminated foster relationships. Breakdowns on the initiative of the foster parents thus indicate a high risk of unstable care history developing and accordingly necessitate prevention strategies.     

The Great Recession and Welfare State Reform: Is Retrenchment Really the Only Game Left in Town?

By 2010, when the Greek sovereign debt crisis changed into an existential crisis of the euro, all developed democracies entered a phase in which they had to consolidate their budgets, typically implying a politics of austerity. The scholarly literature, as well as the popular press, suggests that – consequently – welfare retrenchment and cost containment became the only games left in town. In this article, we study the welfare state reform measures taken between 2010 and 2012 in four countries characteristic of mature welfare state regimes (liberal, UK; conservative, Germany; social democratic, Denmark; and hybrid, the Netherlands) to examine empirically whether austerity has indeed become the only item left on the policy menu. Our analysis reveals that retrenchment features prominently on the agenda everywhere, but nowhere by itself. While compensation for income loss is rare since 2010, this still happens. More unexpectedly, reforms in line with a social investment agenda (like expansion of child care or active labour market policies) are still being pursued in all our four cases.     

Bayes Hilbert Spaces

A Bayes linear space is a linear space of equivalence classes of proportional σ‐finite measures, including probability measures. Measures are identified with their density functions. Addition is given by Bayes' rule and substraction by Radon–Nikodym derivatives. The present contribution shows the subspace of square‐log‐integrable densities to be a Hilbert space, which can include probability and infinite measures, measures on the whole real line or discrete measures. It extends the ideas from the Hilbert space of densities on a finite support towards Hilbert spaces on general measure spaces. It is also a generalisation of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, the sample space of random compositions. In this framework, basic notions of mathematical statistics get a simple algebraic interpretation. A key tool is the centred‐log‐ratio transformation, a generalization of that used in compositional data analysis, which maps the Hilbert space of measures into a subspace of square‐integrable functions. As a consequence of this structure, distances between densities, orthonormal bases, and Fourier series representing measures become available. As an application, Fourier series of normal distributions and distances between them are derived, and an example related to grain size distributions is presented. The geometry of the sample space of random compositions, known as Aitchison geometry of the simplex, is obtained as a particular case of the Hilbert space when the measures have discrete and finite support.     

Blocking Probabilities in Erlang Loss Queues with Advance Reservation

We study the blocking probability in a continuous time loss queue, in which resources can be claimed a random time in advance. We identify classes of loss queues where the advance reservation results in increased or decreased blocking probabilities. The lower blocking probabilities are achieved because the system tends to favor short jobs. We provide analytical and numerical results to establish the connection between the system’s parameters and either an increase or decrease of blocking probabilities, compared to the system without reservation.     

Satisfaction with Social Contacts of Older Europeans

This paper analyses the determinants of an important component of well-being among individuals aged 50 years or older in eleven European countries: satisfaction with social contacts. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and anchoring vignettes to correct for potential differences in responses scales across countries and socio-demographic groups. On average, older Europeans report being satisfied with their social contacts, but there exist substantial differences across countries: respondents from Northern countries tend to be more satisfied than individuals from Central or Mediterranean countries. Our analysis shows that correcting for response scale differentials alters the country ranking for of satisfaction with social contacts, while it has much less effect on the estimates of what drives within country determinants.