Making robust the cross-validatory choice of smoothing parameter in spline smoothing regression

Cross-validation as a means of choosing the smoothing parameter in spline regression has achieved a wide popularity. Its appeal comprises of an automatic method based on an attractive criterion and along with many other methods it has been shown to minimize predictive mean square error asymptotically. However, in practice there may be a substantial proportion of applications where a cross-validation style choice may lead to drastic undersmoothing often as far as interpolation. Furthermore, because the criterion is so appealing the user may be misled by an inappropriate, automatically-chosen value. In this paper we investigate the nature of cross-validatory methods in spline smoothing regression and suggest variants which provide small sample protection against undersmoothing.     

New ways of believing or belonging: is religion giving way to spirituality?1

In this article, the presence of alternative spirituality and practices within the general culture and their relationship to institutional religion are examined using national survey data collected as part of the 2001 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey. Alternative practices are found to divide into two groups of interests: concerns with personal well-being and interest in divination. Better-educated women are much more likely to engage with holistic practices associated with well-being; a minority of younger, less well-educated women are more likely to have found horoscopes, astrology, fortune-telling and tarot 'important in their lives'. Churchgoers find divination antithetical to religion while the use and salience of a range of holistic practices is as acceptable among churchgoers as it is among non-attenders and the secular (once allowance has been made for the connections between putatively alternative practices, gender, age and education). This underscores a focus on personal well-being rather than alternative spirituality in the consumption of holistic products and practices within the general culture. The study findings are used to assess claims for a spiritual revolution in modern Britain.     

The political economy of fraud in a globalised industry: the case of seafarers' certifications

This paper reports on the first systematic and international investigation of the fraudulent trade in seafarers’ certifications of competence. The shipping industry more than any other traditional industry has been transformed by globalisation, so that there is now effectively a single global labour market for seafarers. International regulation of labour standards in the industry is extensive, but so is regulatory avoidance. This paper seeks to investigate the political economy of fraud, through an exploration of the links between economic features of the globalised shipping industry and regulatory avoidance of labour standards.     

Effects of Rounding Data Sampled from the Exponential Distribution

This paper looks at the effects of rounding data sampled from the exponential distribution. It examines the nature of the rounded distribution, together with the resulting error distribution. The influence of these distributions on estimates and tests of hypothesis is investigated. The results indicate that even a moderate degree of rounding can cause the bias in an estimator to increase, whereas in hypothesis tests level of significance is altered.     

Citizenship, Social Inclusion and Confidentiality

Correspondence to Tony Evans, Oxford Brookes University, Social Work Department, Heritage Gate, Sandy Lane, West Oxford OX4 6LB. E-mail: tevans{at}brookes.ac.uk Summary Confidentiality has tended to be disconnected from wider debatesabout citizenship and social inclusion. It has been hived offinto self-referential legal and professional discourses concerningthe principles that should inform social workers' conduct. Thelacuna concerning the significance of confidentiality in widerdebates is made more remarkable by the shift towards consumercitizenship, a shift that has ostensibly emphasized serviceusers' rights, including their capacity for active participationin service provision. The rights discourse, as a component ofactive consumer citizenship, is considered in relation to theperspectives of ‘interests’ and ‘will’.The arguments that support moving in the direction of a critical‘will’ perspective, through deliberative processesthat involve service users in developing and framing informationrights, are highlighted and linked to data from a small-scaleempirical study. This perspective is regarded as consistentwith a politically dynamic formulation of social citizenship.Such a formulation involves seeing citizenship as a practicethat requires on-going debates about claims to rights, movesin the direction of seeking to rectify imbalances in power andrecognizes the capacity of service users to act in their owninterests as citizens.     

Critical race theory speaks to the sociology of mental health: mental health problems produced by racial stratification

The sociology of mental health focuses on the epidemiology, etiology, correlates, and consequences of mental health (i.e., psychiatric disorder and symptoms, psychological distress, and subjective well-being) in an attempt to describe and explain how social structure influences an individual's psychological health. Critical race theory describes and explains iterative ways in which race is socially constructed across micro- and macro-levels, and how it determines life chances implicating the mundane and extraordinary in the continuance of racial stratification (i.e., racism). This paper invoked critical race theory to inform the sociology of mental health's approach to studying race and mental health by conceptualizing five hypothetical mental health problems that could exist because of racial stratification. These problems were: (1) nihilistic tendencies, (2) anti-self issues, (3) suppressed anger expression, (4) delusional denial tendencies, and (5) extreme racial paranoia. Mental health problems such as these and undocumented others can only be recognized given awareness of the social and personal implications of racial stratification.     

Educational experiences and aspirations of older youth in foster care

This study documents the school experiences of 262 youth referred for independent-living preparation from the foster care system of one midwestern U.S. county. Of the youth, 73% had been suspended at least once since the seventh grade, and 16% had been expelled. In the past year, 58% had failed a class, and 29% had physical fights with students. Yet the group reported high educational aspirations: 70% wanted to attend college. Those in congregate care and family settings often had school behavior problems. The results support the need for a system of education advocates who work to maintain proper education placements for youth in foster care and help them receive the academic resources they need to graduate from high school and proceed to college.