Clarifying Types of Uncertainty: When Are Models Accurate,and Uncertainties Small?

Professor Aven has recently noted the importance of clarifying the meaning of terms such as "scientific uncertainty" for use in risk management and policy decisions, such as when to trigger application of the precautionary principle. This comment examines some fundamental conceptual challenges for efforts to define "accurate" models and "small" input uncertainties by showing that increasing uncertainty in model inputs may reduce uncertainty in model outputs; that even correct models with "small" input uncertainties need not yield accurate or useful predictions for quantities of interest in risk management (such as the duration of an epidemic); and that accurate predictive models need not be accurate causal models.     

从狩猎到献祭:希腊葬礼仪式剖析

史前史和民族学领域的学者认为,在初民社会中,死人和死去的动物有着同等的对待,因为都是处理死亡,这就决定了葬礼仪式跟狩猎仪式有着某种必然的联系。事实上,从一开始,狩猎和献祭仪式就伴随着葬礼仪式且相互影响。本文论述葬礼仪式的发生以及葬礼过程中的种种仪式行为,如动物献祭、仪式性杀戮、仪式食物的分享、对尸体的处理等。通过具体诠释,表明神话观念对仪式行为的支配性作用,葬礼仪式在确认和维系社会群体持续性中的重要作用。     

Book Review: The Collaboration Challenge: How Nonprofits and Businesses Succeed through Strategic Alliances. By James E. Austin. Jossey-Bass,San Francisco, 2000

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Klassenspaltung Im Wahlverhalten — Eine Reanalyse

The note reports results of a Re-analysis of data used in an earlier article published in this journal (KZfSS 50, 1998: 3–45). The new analysis is based on more recent data (from Allbus 1996 and 1998) added to those used in the earlier contribution. Also a coding error in the earlier analysis has been corrected. The results confirm all substantial findings of the earlier analysis with one exception: Working class voters born after World War II have less negative preferences concerning voting for the Greens than their counterparts born before World War II.     

Keeping Australia's Older Workers in the Labour Force. A Policy Perspective

As in other western industrialised countries the structural ageing of the Australian population has significant labour market implications. Government has responded with a range of policies to persuade older workers to abandon early retirement and/or remain in the workforce past traditional retirement ages. But whether this generation of workers will be prepared to change their retirement plans in response to policy encouragement, and whether current policy measures will translate into significant numbers of older workers extending their labour force participation is uncertain. Using the Australian Survey of Retirement Attitudes and Motivations (ASRAM) a recently completed, nationally representative survey of Australian workers aged 40 – 59 years we find that while the Government message about working longer is getting through, older workers are relatively unresponsive to current policy measures. Other policies, especially policies outside the financial realm, are needed to maximise the number of older Australians in the labour force.     

Narrative Group Therapy with the Seriously Mentally Ill: A Case Study

This paper describes a process set up to facilitate a group of people living with a serious mental illness. The group was based on Anthony's notions of recovery, and incorporated a narrative approach, while remaining consistent with Northen's groupwork model. Particular attention is paid to the preplanning and initial session of the group, to the use of letters and to the incorporation of a reflective team approach. Documentation of the discoveries made by the group members during its life is included in full.     

Normes,théorie des jeux et pratiques participatives: le poids réel des travailleurs dans les économies libérales

Les auteurs analysent l'effet de la directive européenne relative à l'information et à la consultation des travailleurs sur les pratiques participatives en entreprise au Royaume‐Uni et en Irlande. Dans une analyse conceptuelle et empirique, qui fait appel à la théorie des jeux, ils formulent trois hypothèses explicatives, qu'ils cherchent à vérifier avec des données qualitatives recueillies auprès de seize entreprises. La démonstration permet de comprendre pourquoi la coopération, gage de gains mutuels, n'est pas la solution qui l'emporte dans les pays examinés, et elle nous en dit un peu plus sur l'effet des normes sur la gestion participative dans les économies de marché libérales.