Norwegian cohort emigration

This paper introduces a counterfactual technique to estimate net emigration from Norwegian birth cohorts from 1846 to 1900. A main finding is that despite strong fluctuations in annual emigration, the percentage reduction of each cohort due to emigration was surprisingly stable for all cohorts from 1846 to 1886, with net emigration of about 30% for males and about 20% for females. Estimating an econometric model of annual male gross emigration by single years of age 15–60 in the period 1870–1914, we find that previous net emigration from a cohort reduces later gross emigration from the same cohort. The estimations also give some justification for attributing this to selectivity of emigration, in the sense that only a certain proportion of each cohort were potential migrants. Received: 1 October 1997/Accepted: 23 March 2000     

The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility: An Analysis of Danish Data

Assisted reproduction has a minor but increasing influence on childbearing trends in advanced societies. In Denmark, the use of assisted reproduction technology (ART) has become particularly widespread. At the same time, Danish women born in the late 1950s and the 1960s experienced stabilization or even a slight increase in their mean number of children. Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproduction may become important factors contributing to maintaining relatively high completed fertility among the younger cohorts of Danish women. To explore this idea, we analyze and project cohort trends in fertility rates among native Danish women born in 1960‐78 and examine the likely contribution of assisted reproduction to these trends. The projected proportion of children born after ART treatment shows a substantial increase from 2.1 percent among women born in 1965 to 4‐5 percent among women born in 1978, with an estimated net impact of ART (as compared with the hypothetical situation where no ART treatment was available) on the order of 3‐4 percent. When intrauterine inseminations are included, this implies that up to 7 percent of children of those native Danish women born in 1975 and later will likely be conceived by infertility treatment.     

Approaches to civil society in authoritarian states: The case of China

Both civil society in China and research on Chinese civil society have developed profoundly over the last three decades. Research on Chinese civil society can be classified into two categories: a structure‐oriented approach and an agency‐oriented approach. Both approaches acknowledge the state's dominant position in restricting the political space for civil society engagement, but they differ in their understanding of state–civil society relations. A key concern within the structure‐oriented approach is to analyze how the autonomy of civil society organizations is shaped by their structural position vis‐à‐vis the state. Agency‐oriented scholars, on the other hand, reject the analytical focus on structural autonomy. Instead, they build on a more nuanced understanding of the authoritarian yet nonmonolithic context in China and analyze how civil society organizations develop specific strategies to be able to operate within their restricted political space. In particular, agency‐oriented scholars have analyzed two ways in which organizations exercise agency: by strategically developing formal or informal ties with state actors and by bringing their engagement into the public sphere to raise awareness and express their voice. What could be further developed in the agency‐oriented approach is, however, a deeper understanding of the political dimensions of civil society agency.     

Potential support ratios: Cohort versus period perspectives

The ‘prospective potential support ratio’ has been proposed by researchers as a measure that accurately quantifies the burden of ageing, by identifying the fraction of a population that has passed a certain measure of longevity, for example, 17?years of life expectancy. Nevertheless, the prospective potential support ratio usually focuses on the current mortality schedule, or period life expectancy. Instead, in this paper we look at the actual mortality experienced by cohorts in a population, using cohort life tables. We analyse differences between the two perspectives using mortality models, historical data, and forecasted data. Cohort life expectancy takes future mortality improvements into account, unlike period life expectancy, leading to a higher prospective potential support ratio. Our results indicate that using cohort instead of period life expectancy returns around 0.5 extra younger people per older person among the analysed countries. We discuss the policy implications implied by our cohort measures.     

Real-world Europeanisation: the silent turning of small gears*

Several studies of the impacts of the EU on modern policies and polities evade investigation of the most detailed level of Europeanisation, that is, gradual legal changes. This seems odd as it is exactly these small gears turning that constitute perhaps the most real and concrete of all types of Europeanisation. This paper looks at a range of cash benefits in Denmark. Applying a novel framework of silent versus loud Europeanisation, it investigates how legal changes since 1972 came into being by digging into both the legal details and the preparatory and parliamentary work. The conclusion is that Denmark – often mentioned as an archetype universalist welfare state at odds with the European logics of free movement and non-discrimination – has indeed altered the very nature of its most universalist cash benefits, but these changes have been very gradual and have often not even been recognised as Europeanisation.     

Parents in high‐conflict custodial cases: negotiating shared care across households

Understanding the dynamics of custodial conflicts is important for reducing the level of such conflicts and improving the upbringing conditions for the children involved. The parents in these cases care for children living in two households, and our approach therefore draws on the knowledge of how ‘ordinary’ parents proceed in sharing care within and between locations. The paper is based on qualitative interviews with 15 Norwegian parents who were in contact with the child protection service during their custodial disagreements, indicating a high level of conflict and concerns about inadequate care. When describing and reflecting upon their practices of care, the parents speak from two main positions: as a concerned parent or an accused parent. These positions imply different approaches on how to share care, which offer insight into the mechanisms of getting stuck. Although the concerned parent worries about the child's well‐being while staying with the other parent and thereby aims to take a continuous responsibility across households, the accused parent perceives the co‐parent's involvement as undue and negotiates increased distance in parenting. Focusing on practices of care may contribute to turning the attention away from conflicts between former partners and towards the child's situation.     

THE RISE OF THE ECLECTIC CULTURAL CONSUMER IN DENMARK, 1964–2004

Existing research on cultural stratification and consumption patterns rarely presents a cross‐time comparative perspective and rarely goes back before the 1980s. This article employs a unique series of surveys on cultural participation collected in Denmark over the period 1964–2004 to map the historical development of three distinct cultural consumption groups (eclectic, moderate, limited) also identified in previous research. We report two major findings. First, the eclectic (or “omnivorous”) cultural consumption group existed as far back as the 1960s and has since the 1980s comprised about 10 percent of the Danish population. Second, the major stratification variables—income, education, and social class—are strong predictors of cultural eclecticism in Denmark, and the predictive power of these stratification variables appears not to have declined in any substantive way over the past 40 years.     

Testing the Intransitivity Explanation of the Allais Paradox

This paper uses a two-dimensional version of a standard common consequence experiment to test the intransitivity explanation of Allais-paradox-type violations of expected utility theory. We compare the common consequence effect of two choice problems differing only with respect to whether alternatives are statistically correlated or independent. We framed the experiment so that intransitive preferences could explain violating behavior when alternatives are independent, but not when they are correlated. We found the same pattern of violation in the two cases. This is evidence against intransitivity as an explanation of the Allais Paradox. The question whether violations of expected utility are mainly due to intransitivity or to violation of independence is important since it is exactly on this issue the main new decision theories differ.     

Uncertainty Quantification in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) provides an approximate, sequential Monte Carlo solution to the recursive data assimilation algorithm for hidden Markov chains. The challenging conditioning step is approximated by a linear updating, and the updating weights, termed Kalman weights, are inferred from the ensemble members. The EnKF scheme is known to provide unstable predictions and to underestimate the prediction intervals, and even sometimes to diverge. The underlying cause for these shortcomings is poorly understood. We find that the ensemble members couple in the conditioning procedure and that the coupling increase multiplicatively in the recursive conditioning steps. Under reasonable Gauss‐independence assumptions, exact expressions for this correlation are developed. Moreover, expressions for the precision of the predictions and the downward bias in the empirical variance introduced in one conditioning step are found. These results are confirmed by a Gauss‐linear simulation study. Furthermore, we quantitatively evaluate an alternative, improved EnKF scheme on the basis of transformations of ensemble members under the same Gauss‐independent assumptions. The scheme is compared with the frequently used ensemble inflation scheme.     

Partial least squares Cox regression for genome-wide data

Most methods for survival prediction from high-dimensional genomic data combine the Cox proportional hazards model with some technique of dimension reduction, such as partial least squares regression (PLS). Applying PLS to the Cox model is not entirely straightforward, and multiple approaches have been proposed. The method of Park et al. (Bioinformatics 18(Suppl. 1):S120–S127, 2002) uses a reformulation of the Cox likelihood to a Poisson type likelihood, thereby enabling estimation by iteratively reweighted partial least squares for generalized linear models. We propose a modification of the method of park et al. (2002) such that estimates of the baseline hazard and the gene effects are obtained in separate steps. The resulting method has several advantages over the method of park et al. (2002) and other existing Cox PLS approaches, as it allows for estimation of survival probabilities for new patients, enables a less memory-demanding estimation procedure, and allows for incorporation of lower-dimensional non-genomic variables like disease grade and tumor thickness. We also propose to combine our Cox PLS method with an initial gene selection step in which genes are ordered by their Cox score and only the highest-ranking k% of the genes are retained, obtaining a so-called supervised partial least squares regression method. In simulations, both the unsupervised and the supervised version outperform other Cox PLS methods.