Quantile plots for mean effects in the presence of variance effects for 2k-p designs

In robust parameter design, variance effects and mean effects in a factorial experiment are modelled simultaneously. If variance effects are present in a model, correlations are induced among the naive estimators of the mean effects. A simple normal quantile plot of the mean effects may be misleading because the mean effects are no longer iid under the null hypothesis that they are zero. Adjusted quantiles are computed for the case when one variance effect is significant and examples of 8-run and 16-run fractional factorial designs are examined in detail. We find that the usual normal quantiles are similar to adjusted quantiles for all but the largest and smallest ordered effects for which they are conservative. Graphically, the qualitative difference between the two sets of quantiles is negligible (even in the presence of large variance effects) and we conclude that normal probability plots are robust in the presence of variance effects.     

Estimating a frequency distribution when the sampling is biased

A simple random sample on a random variable A allows its density to be consistently estimated, by a histogram or preferably a kernel density estimate. When the sampling is biased towards certain x-values these methods instead estimate a weighted version of the density function. This article proposes a method for estimating both the density and the sampling bias simultaneously. The technique requires two independent samples and utilises ideas from mark-recapture experiments. An estimator of the size of the sampled population also follows simply from this density estimate.     

Risk,interest groups and the definition of crisis: the case of volcanic ash

This paper considers a key aspect of the ‘risk society’ thesis: the belief that we should be able to manage risks and control the world around us. In particular it focuses on the interface between risk and risk events as socially constructed and the insights that ‘critical situations’ give us into ‘the routine and mundane’, the otherwise taken for granted assumptions underlying risk regulation. It does this with reference to the events precipitated by the April 2010 volcanic eruption in the Eyjafjallajökull area of Iceland. The resulting cloud of volcanic ash spread across Europe and much of Europe's airspace was closed to civil aviation for six days, with far reaching consequences including huge financial losses for airlines. The social processes of defining and reacting to risk and crisis both reveal and generate dilemmas and challenges in regulation. This paper examines the role of different interest groups in defining risk expectations and thereby redefining the ash crisis as a regulatory crisis.     

Residential and Racial Mortality Differentials in the South by Cause of Death1

Abstract Mortality levels and differences by metropolitan-nonmetropolitan residence for blacks and whites are examined in the South using life-table techniques. Life tables are constructed for Southern subpopulations using U.S. vital statistics and census data for 1980, and differences in the life expectancies are decomposed by cause of death. Results suggest that life expectancy is higher for metropolitan and white populations. Racial mortality differences are slightly greater in metropolitan areas of the South when compared to the nonmetropolitan South. Residential mortality differences are attributable mainly to differences in the effects of heart disease and accidents. Most of the racial mortality difference is due to differences in effects of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, perinatal conditions, and homicide. Policy efforts aimed at specific causes of death in specific populations are suggested as a means of reducing racial or residential life expectancy differentials.     

The demographic evolution of human populations: The role of selection and environmental factors

Selection (genetic and cultural) and environmental variation are the principal mechanisms determining patterns of demographic change in human populations. Conditions exist under which the nature and intensity of these forces can be inferred from temporal trends in the demographic variables. These conditions, which can be expressed in terms of relations between the Malthusian parameter and population entropy, provide a means for evaluating the effect of selective and nonselective factors on demographic trends in human populations. The distinction between the roles of selection and environmental factors is illustrated by a study of the demographic transition in Sweden (1778-1965). This study shows that demographic changes during the pre- and posttransitional phases are determined mainly by environmental factors, whereas the changes during the transitional phase are mainly due to cultural selection. This analysis provides, for all three phases of the demographic transition, quantitative measures of the intensity of the forces (selective and nonselective) acting on both mortality and fecundity distributions.     

A Simulation Study of Work-in-Process Inventory Drive Systems and their Effect on Operational Measurements

This simulation study compares three operational measures of performance through the exploration of three work-in-process (WIP) inventory drive systems and their associated inventory buffer characteristics. The three drive systems under study are a push, a pull and a hybrid push-pull system. While these systems have many aspects in common, their buffer management systems do not. The data analysis was based on information gathered from three computer-simulated flow shop assembly lines all operating in the same environment. Hypotheses concerning the operational performance measurements were established, independent variables were controlled and manipulated and a conclusion was drawn as to which system would afford the operation optimum results. While inventory has traditionally been considered and is currently being shown as an asset from an accounting point of view, it is obvious from the findings of this study, that excess WIP inventory, above the minimal requirements for production, may have a negative effect on the operational measurements evaluated.     

Community councils as a medium for public participation: a case study in Grampian region

Planning authorities in Scotland are obliged to consult the public before finalising policies and proposals to be included in their development plans. Community councils are intended to operate as ‘the voice of a neighbourhood’ and this paper analyses an attempt by a regional planning authority to use community councils as a vehicle for consulting the public in the preparation of a structure plan for a rural area. The paper concludes that the attempt was unsuccessful because the community councils were not clear about the role they were expected to play; nor were they adequately prepared for their role. The authors believe, however, that the involvement of community councils has potential for promoting greater public participation in the preparation of development plans.