Changes in union status during the transition to parenthood in eleven European countries, 1970s to early 2000s

Couples who have children are increasingly likely to have lived together without being married at some point in their relationship. Some couples begin their unions with cohabitation and marry before first conception, some marry during pregnancy or directly after the first birth, while others remain unmarried 3 years after the first birth. Using union and fertility histories since the 1970s for eleven countries, we examine whether women who have children in unions marry, and if so, at what stage in family formation. We also examine whether women who conceive when cohabiting are more likely to marry or separate. We find that patterns of union formation and childbearing develop along different trajectories across countries. In all countries, however, less than 40 per cent of women remained in cohabitation up to 3 years after the first birth, suggesting that marriage remains the predominant institution for raising children.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Multipartner Fertility

Using data from administrative registers for the period 1970–2007 in Norway and Sweden, we investigate the intergenerational transmission of multipartner fertility. We find that men and women with half-siblings are more likely to have children with more than one partner. The differences are greater for those with younger versus older half-siblings, consistent with the additional influence of parental separation that may not arise when one has only older half-siblings. The additional risk for those with both older and younger half-siblings suggests that complexity in childhood family relationships also contributes to multipartner fertility. Only a small part of the intergenerational association is accounted for by education in the first and second generations. The association is to some extent gendered. Half-siblings are associated with a greater risk of women having children with a new partner in comparison with men. In particular, maternal half-siblings are more strongly associated with multipartner fertility than paternal half-siblings only for women.     

SECESSIONS AND POLITICAL EXTREMISM: WHY REGIONAL REFERENDA DO NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM

This paper shows that an uninformed player can increase his bargaining power by committing to receive information from an expert more skeptical to cooperation. This general idea is applied to a model in which a regional political leader (the expert) influences voting in a referendum on independence by strategically disseminating information about the consequences of separation. I show that this motivates a moderate electorate to appoint a more extreme leader, to receive biased information that increases their bargaining power over the gains of staying unified. However, a trade‐off between bargaining power and precision of information causes inefficient outcomes in equilibrium. (JEL: C73, D72, D82, H77)     

Socioeconomic Differences in Multipartner Fertility Among Norwegian Men

This article analyzes male fertility, with a particular focus on multipartner fertility, for cohorts born 1955 to 1984 in Norway. We find that socioeconomically disadvantaged men have the lowest chance of becoming fathers and the lowest likelihood of fathering multiple children in stable unions. Multipartner fertility, on the other hand, is positively associated with both disadvantage and advantage: higher-order birth risks with a new partner are more prevalent among men with low as well as high socioeconomic status. An intervening factor among disadvantaged men may be a higher union dissolution risk, and an elevated risk among advantaged men may be associated with their higher preferences for children and other features that make these men more attractive to women as partners and fathers of future children.     

Mutuality in leader–subordinate empowerment expectation: Its impact on role ambiguity and intrinsic motivation

Drawing on leader role set theory, we examine the relationship between the congruence of leaders' and subordinates' empowerment expectations and subordinates' experiences of role ambiguity and intrinsic motivation. Based on cross-level polynomial regression analysis using 168 subordinates and 33 leaders, the results indicated that the relationship between congruence and role ambiguity and intrinsic motivation vary depending on whether leaders misevaluate subordinate empowerment expectations, as well as whether the expectations match. Specifically, subordinates had low role ambiguity and low intrinsic motivation when leaders' and subordinates' empowerment expectations matched at low levels and when leaders underestimated subordinates' empowerment expectations. However, subordinates had low role ambiguity and high intrinsic motivation when expectations matched at high levels. Furthermore, role ambiguity was high and intrinsic motivation was low when the leaders overestimated subordinates' empowerment expectations. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Hospital social workers' assessment processes for children at risk: positions in and contributions to inter-professional teams

This article explores hospital social workers' assessment processes for children at risk within the context of inter-professional teams working in child hospital care in Sweden. Based on qualitative interviews, the study discusses how assessment processes for children at risk can be understood from a professionalism perspective. Three institutionalized norms—juridical, therapeutic, and medical, building on different knowledge systems—are analyzed in relation to the three positions taken by hospital social workers as team members—active, reflective, or passive—leading to different kinds of actions in the assessment processes. The outlined norms and the positions taken involve consequences for the children and their families, but also pose questions for the future professionalization efforts of hospital social work.     

The promise and pitfalls of composite endpoints in sepsis and COVID-19 clinical trials

Composite endpoints reveal the tendency for statistical convention to arise locally within subfields. Composites are familiar in cardiovascular trials, yet almost unknown in sepsis. However, the VITAMINS trial in patients with septic shock adopted a composite of mortality and vasopressor-free days, and an ordinal scale describing patient status rapidly became standard in COVID studies. Aware that recent use could incite interest in such endpoints, we are motivated to flag their potential value and pitfalls for sepsis research and COVID studies.     

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding should be reported more often, especially in observational studies. In the standard Cox proportional hazards model, this requires substantial assumptions and can be computationally difficult. The marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model (Cox proportional hazards MSM) with inverse probability weighting has several advantages compared to the standard Cox model, including situations with only one assessment of exposure (point exposure) and time-independent confounders. We describe how simple computations provide sensitivity for unmeasured confounding in a Cox proportional hazards MSM with point exposure. This is achieved by translating the general framework for sensitivity analysis for MSMs by Robins and colleagues to survival time data. Instead of bias-corrected observations, we correct the hazard rate to adjust for a specified amount of unmeasured confounding. As an additional bonus, the Cox proportional hazards MSM is robust against bias from differential loss to follow-up. As an illustration, the Cox proportional hazards MSM was applied in a reanalysis of the association between smoking and depression in a population-based cohort of Norwegian adults. The association was moderately sensitive for unmeasured confounding.