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81.
82.
P. von Bethlenfalvy 《International migration (Geneva, Switzerland)》1987,25(4):451-452
83.
Katherine E. von Stackelberg Dmitriy Burmistrov Donna J. Vorhees Todd S. Bridges Igor Linkov 《Risk analysis》2002,22(3):499-512
Biomagnification of organochlorine and other persistent organic contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty and variability in evaluating potential risks associated with disposal of dredged materials. While it is important to distinguish between population variability (e.g., true population heterogeneity in fish weight, and lipid content) and uncertainty (e.g., measurement error), they can be operationally difficult to define separately in probabilistic estimates of human health and ecological risk. We propose a disaggregation of uncertain and variable parameters based on: (1) availability of supporting data; (2) the specific management and regulatory context (in this case, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tiered approach to dredged material management); and (3) professional judgment and experience in conducting probabilistic risk assessments. We describe and quantitatively evaluate several sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating risk to human health from trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using a case study of sediments obtained from the New York-New Jersey Harbor and being evaluated for disposal at an open water off-shore disposal site within the northeast region. The estimates of PCB concentrations in fish and dietary doses of PCBs to humans ingesting fish are expressed as distributions of values, of which the arithmetic mean or mode represents a particular fractile. The distribution of risk values is obtained using a food chain biomagnification model developed by Gobas by specifying distributions for input parameters disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. Only those sources of uncertainty that could be quantified were included in the analysis. Results for several different two-dimensional Latin Hypercube analyses are provided to evaluate the influence of the uncertain versus variable disaggregation of model parameters. The analysis suggests that variability in human exposure parameters is greater than the uncertainty bounds on any particular fractile, given the described assumptions. 相似文献
84.
von Bülow Marisa 《Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations》2002,13(2):194-196
VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - 相似文献
85.
Public Values in Risk Debates 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Both the issues inherent in regulation of specific risks and the contexts in which such regulatory processes occur are often characterized by confusion and controversy. Tools based on multiattribute utility measurement (MAUT) can help to clarify public values in risk debates and thus to facilitate option invention and decision making. Stakeholder group representatives, in interaction with an analyst, structure their values relevant to the problem into a value tree. The analyst prepares a common tree, iterating until all stakeholder representatives accept it. Stakeholders express their values as weights on the common tree. This provides a basis for option invention and negotiation. The paper presents three illustrative applications. 相似文献
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To what extent substitute long term care modifies intergenerational transmission of substance abuse has rarely been investigated. Using register data, we followed a national cohort born 1973–1985 consisting of 1012 national adoptees, 2408 former children from long term foster care, 348/846 environmental siblings of adoptees/foster children, and 952,935 majority population peers, from their 15th birthday to age 27–35. Using Cox regression, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) for hospital care and criminality associated with illicit drug/alcohol abuse, with adjustments for socio-demographic indicators of caring families, and substance abuse in caring and birth parents. 相似文献
89.
Janick Christian Mollet Urs von Arx Dragan Ilić 《Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft》2013,83(6):577-604
The ongoing empirical debate about whether SRI is associated, if anything, with subpar or surpassing financial performance is characterized by a somewhat indistinct focus and the infeasibility of tapping the full potential of existing models. By indistinct focus, we mean an analysis based on an aggregation of a myriad of SRI factors that potentially affect a firm’s financial performance. The inability of taking full advantage of existing models is reflected by the fact that studies with European data have not been able to comprehensively account for systematic risk tilts. This paper presents a portfolio analysis that overcomes these issues by analyzing a distinct selection of small and innovative firms. We argue that both their strategic implementation of Corporate Social Responsibility and the general growth in socially responsible investments (SRI) lend themselves to an explanation for positive abnormal returns of this portfolio. We account for the idiosyncratic investment style of SRI by introducing a comprehensive pan-European risk-adjusted portfolio analysis based on the Carhart four-factor model. A novel propensity score matching method in conjunction with the estimation of structural models completes the conventional robustness checks in the literature. 相似文献
90.
Ho-Lan Peng Andrew Aschenbrenner Kirk von Sternberg Patricia D. Mullen 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(23):5756-5765
AbstractWe develop an analytic likelihood approach for a four-state CTMC by solving the backwards Kolmogorov differential equations, reducing this bias in transition rate estimates. A simulation study is performed to assess the performance of this new method and confirms that it achieves good coverage probabilities with low bias and standard errors. Finally, we analyzed data from Project SUCCESS to estimate the study each participant’s transitions among behavioral stage, consisting of risky drinking and possible ineffective using of contraception, which comprise the primary endpoint of risk of an alcohol-exposed pregnancy. 相似文献