One-dimensional optimal bounded-shape partitions for Schur convex sum objective functions

Consider the problem of partitioning n nonnegative numbers into p parts, where part i can be assigned n_i numbers with n_i lying in a given range. The goal is to maximize a Schur convex function F whose ith argument is the sum of numbers assigned to part i. The shape of a partition is the vector consisting of the sizes of its parts, further, a shape (without referring to a particular partition) is a vector of nonnegative integers (n₁,..., n_p) which sum to n. A partition is called size-consecutive if there is a ranking of the parts which is consistent with their sizes, and all elements in a higher-ranked part exceed all elements in the lower-ranked part. We demonstrate that one can restrict attention to size-consecutive partitions with shapes that are nonmajorized, we study these shapes, bound their numbers and develop algorithms to enumerate them. Our study extends the analysis of a previous paper by Hwang and Rothblum which discussed the above problem assuming the existence of a majorizing shape. This research is partially supported by ROC National Science grant NSC 92-2115-M-009-014.     

Risk Analysis, Systems Analysis, and Covey's Seven Habits

This article relates problem solving to the common approaches of the gestalt-holistic philosophies of systems analysis, risk analysis, and Stephen Covey's Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Guiding principles developed on the basis of these philosophies provide the foundations for methodological frameworks that build on a plethora of theory, methods, tools, and techniques. Although systems analysis and risk analysis differ in their historical evolution and technical maturity, both study and solve problems using methodological frameworks that share a holistic vision.     

Solving the part families problem in discrete-parts manufacture by simulated annealing

In the production planning and control of discrete-parts manufacture, aggregation of parts into families, on the basis of similarity, is carried out to ease both long-horizon planning and short-horizon scheduling. Additional advantages are related to those of group technology (GT), such as simplifying the flow of parts and tools and reducing both set-up and production costs. The problem of formally forming part families is presented and discussed. Previous work is reviewed and assessed. Two solution approaches, one based on a location model, the other on simulated annealing, are presented and compared along with test results. The location formulation, which results in an integer programming model solved by Lagrangian relaxation, proved capable of producing solutions of excellent quality, but only for relatively small problem instances. In contrast, simulated annealing, which is a general heuristic approach to combinatorial optimization, produced solutions of comparable quality and could handle realistically large problem instances. However, careful design of the simulated annealing algorithm is crucially important. An effective design is presented.     

Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk

A point of view is suggested from which the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method can be seen as one more method within the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS), which is that part of Quantitative Risk Assessment having to do with the task of identifying the set of risk scenarios. Seen in this way, HHM brings strongly to our attention the fact that different methods within TSS can result in different sets of risk scenarios for the same underlying problem. Although this is not a problem practically, it is a bit awkward conceptually from the standpoint of the "set of triplets" definition of risk, in which the scenario set is part of the definition. Accordingly, the present article suggests a refinement to the set of triplets definition, which removes the specific set of scenarios, found by any of the TSS methods, from the definition of risk and casts it, instead, as an approximation to the "true" set of scenarios that is native to the problem at hand and not affected by the TSS method used.     

中国省区城市化水平的马尔可夫预测

首先将中国省区的城市化水平划分为四种状态,并建立一个吸收的Markov随机过程,描述中国省区城市化水平状态的变化规律;其次,利用Markov预测模型,对省区城市化水平的变动趋势进行预测;最后,通过吸收Markov链的基本矩阵,对各种"非吸收状态"进入"吸收状态"(高度城市化水平状态)所需的时间进行预测,并对其进行分析.     

Intensity, timeliness, and success of incumbent response to technological discontinuities: a synthesis and empirical investigation

The extant literature highlights numerous different factors influencing the timeliness and intensity of incumbent response to discontinuous technological change. However, this literature has so far not been synthesized and is therefore limited in its analytical, predictive, and normative power. We develop a comprehensive model of incumbent response that organizes different explanatory factors into the three distinct dimensions of (1) identification and interpretation, (2) decision making, and (3) organizational implementation. We also conceptualize how response intensity and timeliness affect business performance in new technological domains. We test the model against data from 320 firms from the German dental lab industry, finding substantial support for the majority of our hypotheses. This study offers unique empirical insight in observing that cognitive constructs such as framing and management flexibility have the strongest impact on both intensity and timeliness of incumbent response to technological, and thus, strategic discontinuities. Together, our findings have important implications for both theory and practice.     

On predictive distributions and Bayesian networks

In this paper we are interested in discrete prediction problems for a decision-theoretic setting, where the task is to compute the predictive distribution for a finite set of possible alternatives. This question is first addressed in a general Bayesian framework, where we consider a set of probability distributions defined by some parametric model class. Given a prior distribution on the model parameters and a set of sample data, one possible approach for determining a predictive distribution is to fix the parameters to the instantiation with the maximum a posteriori probability. A more accurate predictive distribution can be obtained by computing the evidence (marginal likelihood), i.e., the integral over all the individual parameter instantiations. As an alternative to these two approaches, we demonstrate how to use Rissanen's new definition of stochastic complexity for determining predictive distributions, and show how the evidence predictive distribution with Jeffrey's prior approaches the new stochastic complexity predictive distribution in the limit with increasing amount of sample data. To compare the alternative approaches in practice, each of the predictive distributions discussed is instantiated in the Bayesian network model family case. In particular, to determine Jeffrey's prior for this model family, we show how to compute the (expected) Fisher information matrix for a fixed but arbitrary Bayesian network structure. In the empirical part of the paper the predictive distributions are compared by using the simple tree-structured Naive Bayes model, which is used in the experiments for computational reasons. The experimentation with several public domain classification datasets suggest that the evidence approach produces the most accurate predictions in the log-score sense. The evidence-based methods are also quite robust in the sense that they predict surprisingly well even when only a small fraction of the full training set is used.     

Social Sources of Failure in Education: The Case in East and Southeast Turkey

The efficiency of education in East and Southeast Turkey (E&SE) has long been a subject of debate. Both regions are similar to each other and different from the other regions in terms of economy, culture, ethnic origin, and languages spoken. Sahin (1997) studied the efficiency of education in the E&SE and proposed that illiteracy is significantly the highest in both regions, the female student population is significantly lower, and students are significantly less successful in nationwide general proficiency examinations (OSS and OYS) compared to all the other regions. Social sources of failure were studied in terms of the distinguishing characteristics of both regions, from both practical and theoretical standpoints. The findings indicated inequality of educational opportunity rooted in geographical, economical, social (cultural, linguistic), and political factors.     

中国特困供养服务的现状与问题——基于江苏省的实证研究

《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》提出要保障低收入人群的健康,特困人员供养制度作为中华人民共和国成立以来一直存在并不断发展完善的具备中国特色的社会保障制度,致力于提供特殊困难人群的生存及健康保障。近年来,我国特困供养服务保障有了重要的进展,但城乡之间、不同经济发展水平地区之间的保障差距依然存在着发展不平衡、不充分的问题。文章用定性访谈与问卷调查方法,通过对江苏省特困供养政策和实践的调查分析,了解特困供养制度的运行状况、成效与问题,并借鉴国际上特困及弱势群体救助制度和实施的经验,为我国特困供养制度的建设与完善提供参考。