An alternative to unrelated randomized response techniques with logistic regression analysis

The randomized response technique (RRT) is an important tool that is commonly used to protect a respondent’s privacy and avoid biased answers in surveys on sensitive issues. In this work, we consider the joint use of the unrelated-question RRT of Greenberg et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 64:520–539, 1969) and the related-question RRT of Warner (J Am Stat Assoc 60:63–69, 1965) dealing with the issue of an innocuous question from the unrelated-question RRT. Unlike the existing unrelated-question RRT of Greenberg et al. (1969), the approach can provide more information on the innocuous question by using the related-question RRT of Warner (1965) to effectively improve the efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator of Scheers and Dayton (J Am Stat Assoc 83:969–974, 1988). We can then estimate the prevalence of the sensitive characteristic by using logistic regression. In this new design, we propose the transformation method and provide large-sample properties. From the case of two survey studies, an extramarital relationship study and a cable TV study, we develop the joint conditional likelihood method. As part of this research, we conduct a simulation study of the relative efficiencies of the proposed methods. Furthermore, we use the two survey studies to compare the analysis results under different scenarios.     

产品伤害中不同忠诚度顾客情绪反应及行为意向的差异性研究

产品伤害发生后,顾客会对伤害责任进行归因,并表现出不同的情绪和反应。本文通过现场实验,研究在产品伤害外部归因情境下,不同忠诚度顾客的情绪反应和行为意向,研究结果表明,忠诚顾客会基于"我信任的企业伤我最深"的情感认知而表现出更强的愤怒情绪,并通过报复或负向口碑宣传来惩罚企业,而非忠诚顾客会基于自己错误选择的认知而表现出更强的后悔情绪,并通过转换或沉默的应因措施以降低其负面情绪。     

封贡体系：-个传统国际秩序的终结

关于古代东亚封贡体系和东亚国际秩序的争论由来已久,本文试图从观念-制度-体系-秩序四个层次入手,对天下观念、封贡制度、东亚封贡体系及东亚封贡秩序四个概念的逻辑关系做出解读,以期理解传统中国与东亚国际秩序的关系.具体来说,随着中国对外交往的扩大,先秦时期的天下观念发展成为秦汉、唐宋及至明清时期的册封-朝贡制度,中国与周边国家和地区之间封贡活动逐渐制度化和常态化,在东亚地区形成了一个以中国为中心的封贡体系,构成了东亚地区的传统国际秩序.     

Leverages and Influential Observations in a Regression Model with Autocorrelated Errors

This article deals with the general form of the hat matrix and the DFBETA measure to detect the influential observations and the leverages in the linear regression model with more than one regressor when the errors are from AR(1) and AR(2) processes. Previous studies dealing with the influential observations and the leverages in the constant mean model and regression through the origin model are obtained as special cases. To demonstrate the utility of the hat matrix and the DFBETA measure, two numerical examples based on the ice cream consumption data with AR(1) errors and the Fox-Hartnagel data with AR(2) errors are analyzed. The results show that the parameter of the autoregressive process affects the influential and leverage points.     

Some Theoretical Comparisons of Negative Binomial and Zero-Inflated Poisson Distributions

In this article, we compare the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (NB) distributions based on three most important criteria: the probability of zero, the mean value, and the variance. Our results show that with same mean value and variance, the ZIP distribution always has a larger probability of zeros; with same mean value and probability of zeros, the NB distribution always has a larger variance; and with same variance and probability of zeros, the ZIP distribution always has a larger mean value. We also study the properties of Vuong test in model selection in three cases by simulations.     

大学生尚法理念的缺失与培育

崇尚法律、秉公守法是当代大学生必备的基本素质.然而,尚法理念目前还未能在大学生中普遍地生成,高等学校法制教育的失误是导致这一现状短期内难以改变的重要原因.为此,必须合理建构大学法律知识课程内容,强化大学生的法律认知;开创法律知识教学新方法,加深大学生对法律的情感;引导大学生进行法律实践,以增强法律意志;营造对大学生进行法律意识教育的学校环境.     

转型期的中国经济波动特征

本文使用1978-2013年的中国宏观经济数据,从总需求、产业、生产力、就业与工资、价格水平、货币与利息6个方面考察了改革开放以来我国经济波动的规律。不同于已有的研究结果,我们发现其具有明显的“转型经济”特征,主要体现在以下两个方面：一、经济周期大致可分为两个阶段：1978-1990年和1991-2013年。前一阶段,主要是供给面因素造成经济波动,且波动率较大。后一阶段,经济波动表现为需求驱动型,波动幅度明显减弱。二、第一产业就业人数与第二、三产业就业人数之和的比值具有明显的反周期特征。这反映了在我国的工业化进程中,农村剩余劳动力在空间上频繁迁移的特点,即宏观经济景气时,农村剩余劳动力迁移到城市;反之,则迁移回农村。     

宪政概念的多重性解读

宪政是政治观念、政治制度和政治运行状态的综合体,其涵义的综合性,构成了宪政＂语义场＂的多重性,同时导致了基本构成要素的多维性,宪法、法治、民主、人权与自由构成了宪政的基本要素;宪政有赖于存在的条件,这些条件关联着宪政的产生、发展,成为决定宪政存在的根本与基础,＂人＂与＂市民社会＂构成了宪政的双向根基。     

在"世界现代田园城市"建设中发挥地方高校的独特优势

建设世界现代田园城市,是成都市践行科学发展观所提出的重大时代命题,作为成都市属的地方高校成都大学,必须充分认识到其重要性,全力发挥高校的教育、科研、服务地方社会发展的三大功能,及时调整实践策略,变革方式方法,早研究、早规划,大胆创新,踏实做事,抓住机遇,有所作为。