An efficient model-free estimation of multiclass conditional probability

Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is proposed to estimate multiclass conditional probability through a series of conditional quantile regression functions. Specifically, the conditional class probability is formulated as a difference of corresponding cumulative distribution functions, where the cumulative distribution functions can be converted from the estimated conditional quantile regression functions. The proposed estimation method is also efficient as its computation cost does not increase exponentially with the number of classes. The theoretical and numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation method is highly competitive against the existing competitors, especially when the number of classes is relatively large.     

经济发展水平、所有权与银行效率——来自东南亚的经验

基于非参数数据包络技术,本文研究了东南亚地区不同经济发展水平下银行效率和所有权的关系。研究表明,在东南亚地区发展中国家,私有银行的效率高于国有银行,而在新兴市场经济体中两者并没有显著的区别,甚至国有银行的效率还略高于私有银行。研究也表明,东南亚地区发展中国家的经验与中国大陆比较相近,不过中国大陆的股份制银行相对于国有银行的效率优势并不明显。     

广州青少年心理健康状况调查

本文通过问卷调查的数据,描述分析了广州青少年的心理健康状况及影响其心理健康的因素。研究发现,广州青少年的心理健康状况与1995年相比,均有不同程度的恶化,而他们获得的社会支持并没有相应的增加,因此,建议家庭、学校在给予青少年更多的心理支持的同时,多设立一些社会的心理辅导机构,使青少年健康成长。     

丰富和发展唯物辩证法本体论——蔡仪美学观的启示

美学、文艺学是以哲学思想为根基建立起来的,它们离不开哲学本体论.唯物辩证法本体论,是与认识论相对而言的对应的基本理论,不能将两者隔绝和对立.以主体论替代本体论,必然造成理论上的严重混乱.要分清唯物辩证法"认识论的实践"和唯心主义的、旧唯物主义的"本体论实践"概念的原则区别.蔡仪是我国老一辈著名美学家,他的"典型论"对丰富和发展唯物辩证法本体论具有重要的启示意义.     

论二十世纪八九十年代中国小说创作心理理论

本文对二十世纪八九十年代中国小说创作心理理论的相关问题加以论述。     

创造性思维能力的培养途径和措施

21世纪的来临给中学物理教学提出了新的要求 ,即不仅要加强双基教学 ,而且更要注重培养学生的综合能力和发展学生的智力水平     

古代蒙古民族文化与世界各民族文化交流初探

早在13世纪以前,蒙古民族就与东西方世界各民族有了广泛的接触和文化交流,并相互建立了友好关系。随着蒙古汗国的建立和不断向外扩张,在客观上又为东西方文化交流与发展开创了非常有利的条件。特别是到了元代,与欧洲各国的来往和文化交流有了空前的发展。古代蒙古民族与世界各民族在经济文化等各方面进行广泛交流的渠道和方式是多种多样的,有官方的,也有民间的,有经济的,也有文化的,有科技的,也有文学艺术的等等。从而促进了东西方文化的交流,而且也丰富了蒙古文化。     

Examining the Scalability of Intimacy Permissiveness in Taiwan

This paper examines the scalability of intimacy permissiveness measures in Taiwan by using island-wide survey data. Among models for scaling analysis, the Guttman scaling model and two latent class models – the latent-distance model and Goodman’s scale model – were employed to examine the scalability of the scale measures. The data were drawn from the 2002 Taiwan Social Change Survey (Questionnaire No. 2), conducted by Academia Sinica. A total of 1983 completed interviews were obtained. This study found that the measures of intimacy permissiveness scale (IPS) were able to form a reasonable Guttman-type scale based on three scaling models. In order to understand whether the attitudinal patterns of Taiwanese toward premarital intimacy permissiveness, particularly the existence of sexual double standards, are consistent with those suggested by the previous literature, we conducted multinomial logistic regression of socio-demographic variables on the scale. Gender and age differences were found consistent with previous studies and mostly reconfirmed the appropriateness of the measures of IPS designed for the Taiwan Social Change Survey.     

假冒伪劣品监控的博弈分析

假劣品监控系统的有效运行，取决于对该系统各行为人合理行为方式分析和预测。文中利用博弈论的基本思想对假劣品监控系统的各行为主体之间的两两关系进行了建模和分析，找出了影响其相互之间关系的因素，并得出了相关的结论和建议。