Selection between models through multi-step-ahead forecasting

We develop and show applications of two new test statistics for deciding if one ARIMA model provides significantly better h-step-ahead forecasts than another, as measured by the difference of approximations to their asymptotic mean square forecast errors. The two statistics differ in the variance estimates used for normalization. Both variance estimates are consistent even when the models considered are incorrect. Our main variance estimate is further distinguished by accounting for parameter estimation, while the simpler variance estimate treats parameters as fixed. Their broad consistency properties offer improvements to what are known as tests of Diebold and Mariano (1995) type, which are tests that treat parameters as fixed and use variance estimates that are generally not consistent in our context. We show how these statistics can be calculated for any pair of ARIMA models with the same differencing operator.     

Family Functioning and Predictors of Runaway Behavior Among At-Risk Youth

Adolescent runaway behavior is associated with a host of negative outcomes in young adulthood. Therefore, it is important to understand the factors that predict running away in youth. Longitudinal data from 111 at-risk families were used to identify proximal predictors of runaway behavior over a 12-week period. On average, youth were 14.96 years old, and 45 % were female. Ten percent of youth ran away during the 12-week follow-up period. In bivariate analyses, running away was predicted by poorer youth- and parent-rated family functioning, past runaway behavior, and other problem behaviors (e.g., substance use, delinquency), but not poorer perceived academic functioning. Results of a hierarchical logistic regression revealed a relationship between youth-rated family functioning and runaway behavior. However, this effect became non-significant after accounting for past runaway behavior and other problem behaviors, both of which remained significant predictors in the multivariable model. These findings suggest that youth who run away may be engaged in a more pervasive pattern of problematic behavior, and that screening and prevention programs need to address the cycle of adolescent defiant behavior associated with running away. Recommendations for clinical practice with this at-risk population are discussed.     

The status of older adolescents at exit from out-of-home care.

Administrative data and case record reviews were used to assess the exit status of a sample of older youths leaving out-of-home care in one midwestern state. Results show that most left without a job or a high school diploma, and that many left with neither. The most common living arrangement at the time of exit was with relatives, some through planned reunification and some through unplanned reunification. The majority of the youths exited out-of-home care in unplanned ways. The number of placements and the completion of high school predicted employment status. High school completion was associated with age and a history of inpatient psychiatric care, running away, and mental retardation. Implications for independent living programs for older youths are discussed.     

The Use of Adventure Therapy Techniques by Clinical Social Workers: Implications for Practice and Training

Adventure therapy, an experiential intervention that combines outdoor, adventure based activities and group process, is used in direct practice by clinical social workers; however, it is unclear to what extent clinical social workers are actually utilizing these techniques. This research project surveyed a random sample of clinical social workers and examined in greater depth how they are utilizing adventure therapy programming with different clients in various treatment settings, as well as what type of education and training they received for engaging in these practices. A random sample of 646 clinical social workers in NASW responded to the survey, and more than 1/3 of this sample (35.1 %) reported the use of adventure based activities for therapeutic purposes in their social work practice. However, few of the social workers reported formal education or training in the use of adventure therapy, highlighting the need for more attention in both educational and clinical settings to proper instruction around this growing intervention.     

The inclusive family support model: Facilitating openness for post‐adoptive families

Open adoptions have increased over the past few decades, and although guidance for considering and creating open adoption agreements exist, one area of needed post‐adoption support is helping adoptive birth/first families navigate open‐adoption relationships after finalization. Adoption agencies have a responsibility to assist adoptive parents, who may have fears and concerns about openness, see the potential benefits rather than only the challenges. This article describes a practice model designed by one agency to help families navigate post‐adoption openness. The Inclusive Family Support model is conceptualized through the theoretical perspectives of family systems theory, ambiguous loss and disenfranchised grief, and the transtheoretical model of change. We highlight the major dimensions of the model, how it will be implemented and evaluated at one agency, and discuss implications for practice and policy.     

Spectral domain diagnostics for testing model proximity and disparity in time series data

Diagnostics for testing the proximity and disparity of a model spectral density to the truth for time series data are formulated by considering a convenient measure of a spectral density’s departure from constancy. The method is illustrated through numerical experiments and several case studies.     

Some theoretical considerations on confidential adoptions part III: The adopted child

In all cases of newborn adoption where placement is made directly into the permanent adoptive home, the adoptive parents become the psychological parents for that child. While adopted children do have separate psychological and genetic parents, the capacity for intimacy, identity, and a cohesive sense of self develops through the consistent empathic attachment between the adoptive parents and the child. We discuss the adopted child's psychological development through infancy, pre-oedipal, oedipal, latency, and adolescence and focus on the child's intrapsychic tasks at each developmental phase. We note how development is different for the adopted child and how this development would be diminished or enhanced by the direct or subtle indirect involvement in an open or confidential adoption. Open adoptions appear to have the risk of serious interference at each developmental phase. Confidential adoptions appear to provide the child with the psychological protection for the unfolding of development. There is a new trend in the field of child welfare toward openness in adoption, which purports to change traditional confidential adoptions. We discuss the crucial aspects of the intrapsychic difference for an adopted child experiencing an open or confidential adoption.And so they wrangled before the King... Kings II, Ch. VThis paper was presented to the National Committee for Adoption Convention, October, 1982; the First International Conference on Pediatric Social Work, August, 1982; and to the Child Care Association of Illinois Convention, April, 1982. All authors have the M.A. degree     

A Study of the Shape of Dose-Response Curves for Acute Lethality at Low Response: A "Megadaphnia Study"

Dose-response curves were developed for the immobilization response in Daphnia magna to four toxicants. The purpose of this work was to study the effect of the form of the model and the number of concentration levels used on the estimates of typical low-dose effective concentrations (1%, 5%, 10%). The generalized four-parameter logistic model was used as the reference. When using 12 concentration levels, one of the logistic family two- or three-parameter models was shown reliably to represent each of these various sets of dose-response data, and to provide adequate estimates of EC01 and EC05, as well as EC10 and EC50. For two of the toxicants, an asymmetric model was required. When reducing the number of concentrations to five, the EC10 and EC50 were well estimated by the probit model, with acceptable results at the EC05 level.     

Interprofessional education: a curriculum response to work with children and young people

This paper charts the development of undergraduate teaching material produced at the Open University in the United Kingdom. The School of Health and Social Welfare at the University has a long history of providing open and distance learning and multiprofessionally focused education and training opportunities. In this instance two courses, entitled ‘Working with Young People’ and ‘Working with Children and Families’, were created to meet the needs of a diverse student audience working across the public, voluntary and private social care, health and education sectors. The materials produced were underpinned by the desire of their academic authors to challenge long‐established assumptions about the nature of children and young people's lives. Crucially though, both course developments reflected a requirement to demonstrate how policies and services for children and young people might be significantly improved. Accordingly, the paper offers some useful indications as to how interprofessional working with children and young people could be fostered. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.