INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS

There is a pronounced positive correlation of inflation and government deficits in the United States since World War II. The purpose of this paper is to test the three leading explanations of this correlation. These three explanations are: (a) a deficit increases prices through a wealth effect; (b) a deficit results in the Federal Reserve purchasing debt, thus increasing the money supply and prices; and (c) expected inflation increases the deficit (which is the change in the nominal value of bonds). No support is found for either of the first two hypotheses. The results indicate that expected government deficits have no significance for future inflation.     

The determinants of effective fecundability based on the first birth interval

There are substantial differences in fecundability among nine developing countries in different parts of the world. In addition, within countries, later age at marriage has a clear, positive, nonlinear effect on fecundability. Women with higher education and those with more educated husbands have higher fecundability. Urban residents have higher fecundability than rural. The higher fecundability of more recent cohorts is the most consistent observation. Since those variables most frequently shown to have inverse relationships to fertility show direct relationships to fecundability within populations, the role of fecundability as a proximate variable in models of the determinants of fertility requires further specification.     

Policy and ethical implications of biosocial research

Social scientists are often concerned that research about the biological causes of behavior will encourage biologically-based public policy. Biosocial research models, jointly examining both social and biological causes of behavior, prevent simplistic biological thinking. Public policy is concerned with bringing about social change. Biological models of behavior primarily explain individual differences, and are not useful for guiding policies directed toward producing social change. When we allow our social ethics to prevent us from asking certain research questions, we will produce politically correct research results. We fall into such strategies because we imagine that ethics can be deduced from the nature of the world.     

DELIBERATION AND LEARNING IN MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEES

We use records from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings to investigate the importance of deliberation and learning in monetary policy decision making in the period from 1970 to 1978 when Arthur Burns served as Chairman. We first propose a model of Bayesian learning in which FOMC members learn from each other as they sequentially reveal their policy preferences in a committee meeting. Then, as an alternative, we investigate a model in which members defer to an emerging consensus. Neither model is supported by the data, suggesting that within‐meeting deliberation might have had little effect on the quality of monetary policy decisions in the Burns era. (JEL E520, E580)     

Population growth rates in perfect contraceptive populations

Eventually, world population must cease to grow. In many countries attempts are made to decrease population growth by providing family planning services to all who want to prevent pregnancies. In this paper we use the concept ‘perfect contraceptive population’,¹ — a population in which no unwanted births occur — to derive estimates of the maximum contribution that prevention of unwanted births might make toward attaining a zero rate of natural increase in population.     

TWO TO TANGO? GENDER DIFFERENCES IN THE DECISIONS TO PUBLISH AND COAUTHOR

The existence of old boy networks has long been postulated as a possible explanation for the presence of gender differences in market outcomes but with little empirical support because of the difficulty of measuring network access. This article exploits the unique attributes of academic labor markets and detailed data on individuals and jobs for PhD economists over nearly four decades. The results suggest that networks impact the joint decision to publish and coauthor, that these network effects differ by gender, and that gender differences in network access change over time as women become more well represented in a profession. (JEL J44 , J77 , J24 )     

Nutrition,lactation, and birth spacing in filipino women

The Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey is used to examine the roles of women’s nutrition and infant feeding in determining time from birth to menses and time from menses to conception. The analysis sample includes 2,648 Filipino women followed for 24 months postpartum. Recently devised statistical estimation techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity are employed in estimating a two-state hazard model. Low body mass index and lower dietary fat intake are associated with increased duration of postpartum amenorrhea. Contraceptive use, high dietary fat consumption, higher parity, and absence of spouse predict a longer waiting time to conception once menses have returned. Simulation of the hazard model is used to examine the effects of the key nutrition and lactation factors.