Integration of Stochastic Effects and Data Uncertainties into the Design of Process Equipment

Stochastic effects and data uncertainties are present in any engineering calculation. Their impact may be particularly important if they concern the design of process equipment. A calculation model for the dynamic behavior of a heat exchanger and procedures to deal with the related uncertainties are presented. Their propagation through the calculation by means of a Monte Carlo approach is shown. The temperature at the heat exchanger outlet and the step response of a sudden variation in the heat exchanger inlet temperature are simulated and evaluated by way of example. It is demonstrated that the inclusion of stochastic effects and uncertainties provides a more reliable basis for design decisions and hence reduces the probability of errors.     

Allies and persecutors: science and medicine in the homosexuality issue

Using Magnus Hirschfeld (1868-1935) and his Zwischenstufentheorie (theory of intersexual stages) as an example, the problems raised for homosexuals by etiological research into homosexuality are scrutinized. Hirschfeld, one of the most influential sex researchers working in the first part of the century, fully intended his biological theory to support his campaign on behalf of homosexuals' rights. However, the Zwischenstufentheorie and modern variations of it, such as the ideas of the endocrinologist, Günter D?rner, have been converted into strategies for preventing or curing homosexuality. From an historical point of view, it becomes clear that, in a society hostile to homosexuals, the results gained from research into the causes of homosexuality can be used against homosexuals and, in fact, have been.     

Demographic characteristics and shared values

This study investigated the extent to which person-organization values alignment is affected by demographic variables (e.g., gender, age, educational level, marital status, family status, hierarchical level, years of managerial experience, and organizational size) across a wide variety of organizations. Values alignment, using two separate measures, was directly related to positive work attitudes and this relationship was moderated by several respondent characteristics. The potential impact of organizational acculturation is proposed as minimizing the impact of demographic factors within organizations.     

EVIDENCE ON ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE U.S. SENATE: ARE UNFAITHFUL AGENTS REALLY PUNISHED?

Many have questioned whether voters are able to hold incumbent officials electorally accountable through a retrospective voting strategy. We examine U.S. Senate elections from 1962 to 1990 in forty-one states, explaining which incumbents ran for reelection and their success in seeking reelection. We find that an incumbent's deviation from her state party platform decreases the probability that she will run for reelection and win if she runs. Furthermore, the electoral mechanism is found to be more efficient when voters are better informed. Finally, we find that our divergent party platform model provides a better fit than the median voter model.     

Postnatal Effects of Prenatal Insult

Exogenous agents may perturb development during the embryonic period and adversely affect the formation of organs. However, adverse effects on development are not limited to the embryonic period nor are the manifestations restricted solely to outright gross structural malformation, but may instead be expressed as a decrement or abberration of postnatal function. Susceptibility to altered development may extend well into the postnatal period. Studies of functional parameters in several organ systems have demonstrated the broad-based susceptibility, subtlety of expression and potential of long-lasting effects of altered development assessed by physiologic assays. Adverse effects on functional development, whether in the CNS, reproductive, gastrointestinal, genitourinary, respiratory, or immune systems, etc., merit continuing investigation. From the viewpoint of risk estimation and hazard detection, evaluations of postnatal functional parameters may be relevant for several reasons. First, such parameters may serve as low-dose triggers. Second, they may be useful as a focal point for epidemiological studies. Finally, a more thorough understanding of the degree and magnitude of such postnatal functional deficits is needed since an adverse maternal effect may be transient, considered acceptable, or unperceived, but the effect on the conceptus may be permanent and severe. The immune and respiratory systems are discussed as two examples of how subtle and protean adverse effects on functional development may be.     

Some theoretical considerations on confidential adoption part IV: Countertransference

Psychological self-awareness is as essential to the maturation of one's professional self as is the development of theoretical and clinical expertise in child placement. This paper represents a first published attempt at examining countertransference in adoption. The focus is within the context of confidential adoptions, which the authors believe is more child-focused and intrapsychically based than the current experimentation with open adoptions. A distinction is made between countertransference and non-countertransference issues. Countertransference responses are divided into Racker's three categories: the concordant; the complementary; and the disjunctive. Clinical data illustrates these responses in actual practice from the perspective of confidential adoptions.This paper was presented in 1985 before the Illinois Infant Mental Health Association, National Society of Clinical Social Workers, and the National Association of Social Workers National Professional Symposium.This is the last of a series. Parts I, II, and III were published in Vol. 2, Nos. 1, 2, and 3.     

What is Loss Aversion?

A behavioral definition of loss aversion is proposed and its implications for original and cumulative prospect theory are analyzed. Original prospect theory is in agreement with the new loss aversion condition, and there utility is capturing all effects of loss aversion. In cumulative prospect theory loss aversion is captured by both the weighting functions and the utility function. Further, some restrictions apply for the weighting functions involved in the latter model.We are indebted to Michèle Cohen and Peter Wakker for helpful comments. The suggestions of an anonymous referee have improved the presentation of the paper.     

Teenage boys and girls in West Germany

In 1970 the Institute for Sex Research at the University of Hamburg conducted a study of 302 males and 300 females aged 16-17. By age 16, 92% of the boys and 50% of the girls had experienced masturbation, 35% of the boys and 30% of the girls had experienced coitus. In the year before the study, 50% of the girls had an orgasm often or always during coitus. Boys achieved 80% of their orgasms through masturbation, 6% through petting, and 14% through coitus. The girls achieve 1/3 of their orgasms through each of these patterns. 18% of the boys and 6% of the girls had had at least 1 homosexual experience. About 70% of the respondents used contraception regularly. 40% to 50% used oral contraceptives and 20%-30% used condoms. The attitudes towards premarital coitus have become more permissive in the last 10 years, but the majority are still in favor of love and fidelity, and are oriented towards marriage.     

Telecare for women with postpartum depression

Data were collected to pilot test the feasibility and effects of telecare as an intervention for depression in a small group of mothers with postpartum depression. Treatment involved a 10-week telecare therapy consisting of three related aspects: cognitive-behavioral therapy, relaxation techniques, and problem-solving strategies. Beck Depression Inventory II scores were significantly lower after telecare treatment. Women identified psycho-education as the greatest help to them.     

Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games: A Comment

Recursive procedures which are based on iterating on the best response mapping have difficulties converging to all equilibria in multi‐player games. We illustrate these difficulties by revisiting the asymptotic properties of the iterative nested pseudo maximum likelihood method for estimating dynamic games introduced by Aguirregabiria and Mira (2007). An example shows that the iterative method may not be consistent.