Aftershocks of Chile's earthquake for an ongoing, large-scale experimental evaluation

Evaluation designs for social programs are developed assuming minimal or no disruption from external shocks, such as natural disasters. This is because extremely rare shocks may not make it worthwhile to account for them in the design. Among extreme shocks is the 2010 Chile earthquake. Un Buen Comienzo (UBC), an ongoing early childhood program in Chile, was directly affected by the earthquake. This article discusses (a) the factors the UBC team considered for deciding whether to put on hold or continue implementation and data collection for this experimental study; and (b) how the team reached consensus on those decisions. A lesson learned is that the use of an experimental design for UBC insured that the evaluation's internal validity was not compromised by the earthquake's consequences, although cohort comparisons were compromised. Other lessons can be transferred to other contexts where external shocks affect an ongoing experimental or quasi-experimental impact evaluation.     

A Century of Nuptiality in Spain, 1900–2007

This article describes the annual evolution of nuptiality in Spain from the beginning of the last century up to the present day. The analysis is based on data on first marriages from population registration data (Movimiento Natural de Población) after various adjustment and estimation operations. This source has an advantage with respect to census data, since it allows us to follow the annual nuptiality fluctuations that are very sensitive to prevailing social and economic conditions. Over the long term, the phases of nuptiality in Spain are comparable to those observed in Western Europe. However, leaving aside the period disturbed by the Civil War (1936–1939), Spain does exhibit some particular features: a long interlude from 1940 to 1959 marked by late marriage, rooted in the long depression of the Spanish economy; a prolonged rise in nuptiality which lasted until the end of the 1970s, corresponding to the late arrival of the first oil shock in Spain; and finally, a certain delay in the decline of marriage, accompanied—since the early 2000s only—by a parallel diffusion of cohabitation. Last, Spain is converging with Europe in another aspect that is seldom taken into account. While, from 1950 to 1980, it was one of the few European countries to register a first marriage rate unfavourable to women, the reversal of this trend since the 1980s has brought Spain closer to the majority of its neighbours.     

Decomposing Bayesian networks: triangulation of the moral graph with genetic algorithms

In this paper we consider the optimal decomposition of Bayesian networks. More concretely, we examine empirically the applicability of genetic algorithms to the problem of the triangulation of moral graphs. This problem constitutes the only difficult step in the evidence propagation algorithm of Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (1988) and is known to be NP-hard (Wen, 1991). We carry out experiments with distinct crossover and mutation operators and with different population sizes, mutation rates and selection biasses. The results are analysed statistically. They turn out to improve the results obtained with most other known triangulation methods (Kjærulff, 1990) and are comparable to results obtained with simulated annealing (Kjærulff, 1990; Kjærulff, 1992).     

Ideological versus Downsian political competition

We analyze a one-dimensional model of spatial political competition with two parties and uncertainty on the distribution of voters' types. We assume that parties are formed by regular members and professional politicians; members care about the policy enacted, while professional politicians, on the contrary, care only about winning the election. We consider two possibilities: that members choose the political platforms and that professional politicians are the ones who choose such platforms. The expected utility for party members is analyzed under these two cases. We find that when professional politicians have no informational advantage, it is on the interest of both parties to let professional politicians choose the platforms. Only in the case in which professional politicians have much better information than the members of the party about voters is it possible that party members obtain a greater expected utility choosing the platforms themselves rather than letting the professional politicians choose. Received: 31 May 1999/Accepted: 1 March 2001     

Perceptions of child abuse: a comparison of three professional groups in Japan

Japan passed its Child Abuse Prevention Act on 20 November 2000. In these early years following the passage of this Act, it is especially important to attempt to define what constitutes child abuse. Definitions and practical responses may be coloured by perceptions of service providers, and since professional culture is believed to influence individuals, this study compared the perceptions of (a) social workers, (b) physicians, (c) lawyers, and (d) the general public. Results suggested less disagreement in perceptions than was anticipated. When differences were observed, they were correlated more frequently with age and gender rather than with profession.     

International Opportunities and Domestic Protest: Zapatistas,Mexico and the New World Economy

The EZLN (Zapatista Army of National Liberation) uprising in Chiapas, Mexico, in 1994 took advantage of many political opportunities in an economic and politically liberalizing state. Most significantly, the negotiation and passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) generated issues over which to mobilize and created political openings in the system to support mobilization. While NAFTA highlighted the dark side of globalization with its negative effects on living conditions in southern Mexico, it also ushered in political reforms that protected human rights and brought great international attention to Mexico. Many nations were watching to see whether Mexico had reached economic and political maturity. Taken together, these political opportunities provided the context for the EZLN to mobilize as a political movement.     

The Impact of Logistics Performance on Trade

This paper studies the impact of logistics performance on global bilateral trade. Taking a supply chain perspective, logistics performance refers to cost, time, and complexity in accomplishing import and export activities. We draw on a data set compiled by the World Bank containing specific quantitative metrics of logistics performance in terms of time, cost, and variability in time. Numerous researchers have shown that logistics performance is statistically significantly related to the volume of bilateral trade. Our research calibrates the impact of specific improvements in logistics performance (time, cost, and reliability) on increased trade. Our findings can spur public and private agencies that have direct or indirect influence over logistics performance to focus attention on altering the most relevant aspects of logistics performance to improve their country's ability to compete in today's global economy. Moreover, as our logistics metrics are directly related to operational performance, countries can use these metrics to target actions to improve logistics and monitor their progress.