Two Applications of Statistics to Traffic Models

Two statistical applications for estimation and prediction of flows in traffic networks are presented. In the first, the number of route users are assumed to be independent α-shifted gamma Γ(θ, λ₀) random variables denoted H(α, θ, λ₀), with common λ₀. As a consequence, the link, OD (origin-destination) and node flows are also H(α, θ, λ₀) variables. We assume that the main source of information is plate scanning, which permits us to identify, totally or partially, the vehicle route, OD and link flows by scanning their corresponding plate numbers at an adequately selected subset of links. A Bayesian approach using conjugate families is proposed that allows us to estimate different traffic flows. In the second application, a stochastic demand dynamic traffic model to predict some traffic variables and their time evolution in real networks is presented. The Bayesian network model considers that the variables are generalized Beta variables such that when marginally transformed to standard normal become multivariate normal. The model is able to provide a point estimate, a confidence interval or the density of the variable being predicted. Finally, the models are illustrated by their application to the Nguyen Dupuis network and the Vermont-State example. The resulting traffic predictions seem to be promising for real traffic networks and can be done in real time.     

Prioritizing Choice: Perceptions of Neighborhood Social Cohesion for Residents in Subsidized Housing

ABSTRACT

Many families living in poverty rely on housing subsidies. Housing subsidies restrict the housing stock and neighborhood choices for families living in poverty. Fortunately neighborhood social cohesion can protect families from many of the deleterious consequences associated with living in a low-income neighborhood. This study uses panel data from the Annie E. Casey Foundation's Making Connections initiative to test the role of public housing types on perceptions of neighborhood social cohesion. The probability sample used in the study consists of 2,470 households living in low-income neighborhoods in ten cities in the United States. Results show that public housing residents, both housing choice voucher users and non-housing choice voucher users, on average, report lower neighborhood social cohesion than their non-public housing neighbors. Results also show that moving to a new neighborhood consistently predicts improved neighborhood social cohesion while moving to public housing predicts declines in perceived neighborhood social cohesion. Choice in where one lives seems to play an important and positive role in perceptions of neighborhood social cohesion. Based on these data, it is suggested that policy makers and housing providers prioritize choice in the development and delivery of public housing.     

Identifying ecosystem patterns from time series of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) landings in northern Chile

ABSTRACT

Useful knowledge acquisition from known and systematized information (data) is a big challenge for researchers, users and finally, decision makers. In this sense, knowledge discovery from data (KDD) process represents a valuable tool for information analysis. Moreover, this work presents an approach through KDD in time series pattern identification for anchovy and sardine fisheries and environmental data, in northern Chile. Time series, multivariate analysis and data mining techniques, along with technical literature review for results validation. The KDD approach and the data mining techniques implemented achieved an integration between these variables, identifying relevant patterns associated with fisheries abundance fluctuations and strong association with environmental changes such as El Niño and long-term cold–warm regimes between them, establishing anchovy and sardine pre-dominant time-periods, associated with environmental conditions are identified. The latter establishes groundwork for studying underlying functional relationships that could reduce gaps in the national fisheries management policies for those fisheries.     

Analyzing Religiosity within an Economic Framework: The Case of Spanish Catholics

Using a sample of Spanish Catholics, we examined the level of religiosity (measured by beliefs, prayer and church attendance) and the relationship between religiosity and various socio-economic variables. An Ordered Logit estimation of religiosity equations showed that: women are more religious than men; religious activity increases with age; there is a (marginally) significant positive relationship between schooling and religiosity; religiosity is positively related to exposure to religious activity during childhood; and male religious activity is positively affected by marital status (being married to a Catholic wife) and by the number of children at home. The results also demonstrate the importance of the "salvation motive" for the two genders and the presence of the "professional utilitarian motive" in male religious behavior.     

Genetics of pathological gambling

Pathological gambling (PG) is an impulse control disorder and a model behavioral addiction. Familial factors have been observed in clinical studies of pathological gamblers, and twin studies have demonstrated a genetic influence contributing to the development of PG. Serotonergic, noradrenergic, and dopaminergic dysfunction have been reported as biological factors contributing to the pathophysiology of PG. Molecular genetic techniques have been used to investigate the role of genetic factors in PG. Molecular genetic research has identified specific allele variants of candidate genes corresponding to these neurotransmitter systems to be associated with PG. Associations have been reported between pathological gamblers and allele variants of polymorphisms at dopamine receptor genes, the serotonin transporter gene, and the monoamine-oxidase A gene. Although preliminary data suggest that some of these differences are gender-specific, more research needs to be performed to substantiate gender-specific genetic contributions to the development of pathological gambling. The review of the current findings on genetics of PG suggests that liability to PG is in part mediated by genetic factors. Additional studies are needed to replicate and extend these findings, as well as to better understand the influence of specific allelic variants to differences in biological and behavioral functioning.     

The hispanic writings of C. Wright Mills: A study in social psychology

The purpose of this article is to conduct a social-psychological analysis of C. Wright Mills and his “Hispanic writings.” I demonstrate how Mills's social-psychological theoretical framework, as articulated in Character and Social Structure, is attendant in his comments on Latinos and Latin America—a population and geopolitical region for which he seemed to have a compelling if somewhat distant fascination. I conclude with a synopsis and appraisal of: (1) Mills's personal perceptions of Latinos; (2) the social structural factors that impacted on the four Latino groups, and (3) the personality traits of Latinos as Mills saw them.     

Parent Conflict as a Mediator Between Marianismo Beliefs and Depressive Symptoms for Mexican American College Women

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine how marianismo is related to the depressive symptoms of Mexican American women with family conflict as a mediator. Participants: During January of 2010, 170 Mexican American women college students in a southern, Hispanic-serving institution were sampled. Methods: A mediation analysis was conducted to determine if parent conflict mediates the relationship between marianismo values and depressive symptoms. Results: Results from Barron and Kenny's¹ mediation analysis method, in conjunction with a Sobel² test indicated that parent conflict significantly mediated the relation between marianismo and depressive symptoms. Conclusion: Findings and implications of the mediation will be discussed for the mental health and treatment of Mexican American women college students.