Adaptive multiple importance sampling for Gaussian processes

In applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. This is normally done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which require repeated expensive calculations involving the marginal likelihood. Motivated by the desire to avoid the inefficiencies of MCMC algorithms rejecting a considerable amount of expensive proposals, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). In particular, this paper studies the application of AMIS for GPs in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes a novel pseudo-marginal-based AMIS algorithm for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios.     

A new nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach using error correction models

In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices.     

VIF-based adaptive matrix perturbation method for heteroskedasticity-robust covariance estimators in the presence of multicollinearity

In this study, we investigate linear regression having both heteroskedasticity and collinearity problems. We discuss the properties related to the perturbation method. Important observations are summarized as theorems. We then prove the main result that states the heteroskedasticity-robust variances can be improved and that the resulting bias is minimized by using the matrix perturbation method. We analyze a practical example for validation of the method.     

Presence and process of fear of birth during pregnancy—Findings from a longitudinal cohort study

Background

The prevalence of fear of birth has been estimated between 8–30%, but there is considerable heterogeneity in research design, definitions, measurement tools used and populations. There are some inconclusive findings about the stability of childbirth fear.

Birth preference in women undergoing treatment for childbirth fear: A randomised controlled trial

Background

Childbirth fear is the most common underlying reason for requesting a caesarean section without medical reason. The aim of this randomised controlled study was to investigate birth preferences in women undergoing treatment for childbirth fear, and to investigate birth experience and satisfaction with the allocated treatment.

Comparing the Experiences of Highly Skilled Labor Migrants in Sweden and Japan: Barriers and Doors to Long-term Settlement

As labor markets become increasingly global, competition among industrialized nations to attract highly skilled workers from abroad has intensified. Spurred by concerns over future economic needs caused by the demographic challenges of an aging population, both Japan and Sweden have joined this global competition. This article examines Japanese and Swedish immigration policies for highly skilled migrants and compares the highly skilled migrants’ experiences in the two countries through interviews with these migrants. Despite Japan and Sweden's completely different approaches to immigration itself, both countries’ policies, as well as the experiences of the skilled migrants, are strikingly similar. Highly skilled migrants experience language barriers and prejudice in both countries, making it difficult to build social networks with natives. Career development seems to be perceived as a common problem, although less so in Sweden, where labor markets are more flexible. Overall, these issues reduce both Japan's and Sweden's ability to retain skilled migrants. While they share similarities, Sweden's famed work–life balance and gender equality give it an edge in the competition for skilled migrants, which Japan does not share. This comparison identifies which social conditions facilitate or impede skilled migrant settlement.     

Fuites,droit et liberté d'expression: la loi peut‐elle promouvoir les dénonciations dans l'intérêt général?

Les auteurs examinent la différence entre fuites et alertes, ou dénonciations, notamment quant à la protection de leurs initiateurs. A ce propos, ils étudient les dispositions des conventions internationales sur les droits de l'homme et la corruption, ainsi que les textes en vigueur en Allemagne, aux Etats‐Unis, en France et au Royaume‐Uni. Leurs résultats mettent en évidence la complexité et les contradictions des questions en jeu: intérêt général et intérêts individuels, commerciaux et financiers; abus de pouvoir; sécurité et confidentialité face à la communication électronique; place de l'individu dans l'application de la loi; relations d'emploi.     

关于施工企业财务存在的问题及对策

施工企业在拉动国民经济增长、启动内需等方面起到了举足轻重的作用。但由于种种原因,财务亏损面日益扩大,整个行业经济状况严重滑坡,许多企业举步维艰。要想扭转不利局面,政府主管部门应帮助其完善现代企业制度,强化社会商业信用监管,维护“合同法”的严肃性,严格执行按工程拨款和决算制度。同时企业本身也要加大清欠力度,用法律手段维护自己的合法权利。     

Does Society Matter? Life Satisfaction in the Enlarged Europe

Life satisfaction is quite heterogeneously distributed across countries of the enlarged European Union. Previous research has shown how living conditions within individual countries, such as access to material and emotional resources, are important for personal well-being, but it has been less successful in explaining differences between countries. This article investigates whether it matters in which political and economic circumstances people live, as well as whether their particular perception of the quality of their societal environment plays a role. People are well aware that the institutional and cultural settings in which their lives are embedded create opportunities and limitations: within individual countries, perceptions of society influence life satisfaction outcomes irrespective of access to resources. However, their importance for well-being differs across Europe: perceptions of societies are highly decisive in countries that provide only a minimum of social security and in which the reliability of political institutions is poor. In rich and stable countries, the impact is weaker and private social support becomes more important. In addition to these country-specific weights of life satisfaction determinants, life satisfaction variations between countries can be explained to a large extent by taking into consideration the economic performance, the social security level, and the political culture in a country—all in all, general conditions that enable people to live a respectable life.