Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

Conditional covariance penalties for mixed models

The prediction error for mixed models can have a conditional or a marginal perspective depending on the research focus. We introduce a novel conditional version of the optimism theorem for mixed models linking the conditional prediction error to covariance penalties for mixed models. Different possibilities for estimating these conditional covariance penalties are introduced. These are bootstrap methods, cross-validation, and a direct approach called Steinian. The behavior of the different estimation techniques is assessed in a simulation study for the binomial-, the t-, and the gamma distribution and for different kinds of prediction error. Furthermore, the impact of the estimation techniques on the prediction error is discussed based on an application to undernutrition in Zambia.     

Money and Happiness: Income,Wealth and Subjective Well-Being

Social Indicators Research - We examine the complex relationship between money and happiness. We find that both permanent income and wealth are better predictors of life satisfaction than current...     

Testing for autocorrelation among common stock returns

We consider the null distribution of autocorrelation coefficients for stock returns when the variance of the returns is infinite. We show that the empirical autocorrelations then tend to zero faster than in the standard case and that they tend, after suitable normalisation, in distribution to a rather complicated nonnormal law. An empirical application to the 14 most busy German stocks reveals that the significance of observed correlations is thereby in general reduced.     

The demographic effect of mixed marriages

This paper gives a formal expression for the demographic effect of mixed marriages; i.e., the effect on the number of children, and thereafter illustrates the long-term effects of these marriages with a simple simulation model     

Racial Prejudice and Fear of Criminal Victimization by Strangers in Public Settings*

In this article we examine the extent to which racial (antiblack) prejudice conditions the effect of the race of strangers encountered in public settings on whites' fear of being crime victims in those settings. We hypothesize that encountering black strangers. as opposed to white strangers, evokes greater fear of being a crime victim in prejudiced whites than in whites who are not prejudiced. Data collected using the factorial survey method support this hypothesis. These results indicate that research dealing with whites' fear of being crime victims in public settings needs to consider both the race of potential criminals and the racial attitudes of potential victims.     

Strategic planning for public relations

Public relations is a key activity for most chairmen of public companies and nationalized industries. It is somewhat suprising therefore how few large companies consider developing an explicit public relations strategy as part of their overall business plan. The reason for this may be partly due to the relatively low regard which senior line managers have for public relations managers and partly because there is a lack of understanding of the nature and use of public relations as a tool of strategic management. The purpose of this article is to discuss why and how business planners should pay more attention to developing explicit public relations strategies for their organizations.     

How a learning orientation affects drivers of innovativeness and performance in service delivery

Relying on organizational innovativeness for long-term growth and profitability can be difficult, time consuming, and expensive. In the context of service delivery of 395 strategic business units (SBU) in Israel's healthcare industry, this paper examines the role of a learning-orientation as a moderator in an integrative model of organizational innovativeness. We find moderation of the impacts of risk-taking, creativity, competitor benchmarking orientation, and environmental opportunities on innovativeness. Moreover, we find the influence on performance pronounced for high learning-oriented SBUs. The paper shows that learning orientation should be considered for understanding effective innovativeness work for competitive service delivery.