A Bayesian Benefit-Risk Model Applied to the South Florida Building Code

A Bayesian compound Poisson benefit-risk model is described in this paper, and used to evaluate recent revisions to the South Florida Building Code (SFBC). The model accounts for natural variability in hurricane frequency and severity, and uncertainty in the effectiveness of the revised code. Ranges of residential growth rate, code effectiveness, construction cost increase, and planning period length are assumed, to show the ranges of cost-to-performance ratio within which the code will make sense economically. The expected cost of residential hurricane damage over 50 years for ten South Florida counties assuming continuation of previous building practices was $93 billion, equivalent to the residential damage of 5.2 Andrews. Assuming a reduction in the growth of damageable housing in South Florida from 5.5% to 2% as a result of code revision, estimated damages under the new code were $45 billion. At a per-house construction cost increase of 5%, the probability of at least recovering the estimated $40 billion cost of the specified wind-resistant construction was estimated to be 47%. Expected return on investment was estimated at $7 billion over 50 years. The expected return lies between a $44 billion loss and a $47 billion gain, when growth in damageable housing is allowed to range from 1% to 4% and construction cost increases are assumed to lie between 3% and 8%. Actual monetary return for a 5% cost increase and 2% growth in damageable housing ranges from a $20 billion loss to a $100 billion gain with 95% probability, as a result of weather variability alone. Results support SFBC revisions on solely economic grounds, a conclusion strengthened considerably in light of potentially avoided deaths and hurricane traumas. The model represents one approach to evaluating economic aspects of the sustainability of new technological measures on the basis of available information.     

What Determines Trust in Information About Food-Related Risks? Underlying Psychological Constructs

Trust in risk information about food related-hazards may be an important determinant of public reactions to risk information. One of the central questions addressed by the risk communication literature is why some individuals and organizations are trusted as sources of risk information and others are not. Industry and government often lack public trust, whereas other sources (for example, consumer organizations, the quality media, medical doctors) are highly trusted. Problematically, previous surveys and questionnaire studies have utilized questions generated by the investigators themselves to assess public perceptions of trust in different sources. Furthermore, no account of the hazard domain was made. In the first study reported here, semistructured interviewing was used to elicit underpinning constructs determining trust and distrust in different sources providing food-related risk information ( n = 35). In the second study, the repertory grid method was used to elicit the terminology that respondents use to distinguish between different potential food-related information sources ( n = 35), the data being submitted to generalised Procrustes analysis. The results of the two studies were combined and validated in survey research ( n = 888) where factor analysis indicated that knowledge in itself does not lead to trust, but that trusted sources are seen to be characterised by multiple positive attributes. Contrary to previous research, complete freedom does not lead to trust—rather sources which possess moderate accountability are seen to be the most trusted.     

An environmental life cycle optimization model for the European pulp and paper industry

Will paper recycling reduce the environmental impact of the European pulp and paper sector? If so, is maximal paper recycling the best policy to optimize the life cycle of the pulp and paper sector? We explore these questions using an approach that combines materials accounting methods and optimization techniques. Environmental impact data are inputs for a linear programming network flow model to find optimal configurations for the sector. These configurations consist of a mix of different pulping technologies, a geographical distribution of pulp and paper production, and a level of recycling consistent with the lowest environmental impacts. We use the model to analyse scenarios with different recycling strategies. Recycling offers a reduction in environmental impact in regions with a high population and a large production of paper and board products. Regions with a large production of graphic products should focus on cleaner virgin pulp production with energy recovery. We conclude that relocation of paper production also offers a reduction in environmental impact. However, the severe effects on the economy make this policy less attractive than a combination of recycling, cleaner pulp production and energy recovery.     

European management: An emerging competitive advantage of European nations

This article extends the debate begun in the June 1992 issue of EMJ when the authors first criticized Michael Porter's explanatory framework in his Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990), over the role of national culture on the competitive advantage of nations. In this paper, Frans van den Bosch and Arno van Prooijen stress that Europe is a locus of competitive advantage if one is prepared to pay attention to the possibility of ‘European Management’ as a potential asset of European firms. In this connection, the transnationalization of European firms is of importance.     

Rural development and women: what are the best approaches to communicating information?

The project reported in this article aimed to discover how well the needs of women were being met with respect to rural development and to identify the best approaches to communicating information to farmers in Tanzania. Semi-structured interviews of male and female respondents in selected 200 households in Shinyanga, northwestern Tanzania, were conducted. The interviews were conducted in order to record data on gender differences in farming and herding with the aim of determining how to communicate information on development. Findings showed that women continued to be the poorest group in the community. Use of introduced technology was mostly associated with men's work. The activities of Hifadhi Ardhi Shinyanga conducted through communication channels were also more accessible to men than women. The improved stoves specifically aimed at women also failed because of ineffective communication strategies. It is difficult to approach women because they tend to be tied far more closely to the area of their homes. Thus, training through village workshops would encourage the active participation of women. This would enable information to be shared with, and between, as many women as possible.     

A methodological strategy for a one-number census in the UK

As a result of lessons learnt from the 1991 census, a research programme was set up to seek improvements in census methodology. Underenumeration has been placed top of the agenda in this programme, and every effort is being made to achieve as high a coverage as possible in the 2001 census. In recognition, however, that 100% coverage will never be achieved, the one-number census (ONC) project was established to measure the degree of underenumeration in the 2001 census and, if possible, to adjust fully the outputs from the census for that undercount. A key component of this adjustment process is a census coverage survey (CCS). This paper presents an overview of the ONC project, focusing on the design and analysis methodology for the CCS. It also presents results that allow the reader to evaluate the robustness of this methodology.     

Technology transfer concerns of college graduates with disabilities: Profiles in transition from higher education to competitive careers

The article describes the technology transfer concerns reported by a small sample (N=14) of recent college graduates with disabilities. In structured, in-depth interviews, researchers asked respondents to reflect on the extent to which they had utilized technology resources during their college years in preparation for the world of work. Results suggest that colleges and universities need to play a more active role in introducing students with disabilities to both generalized and assistive technology services.     

Racial inequality in active life among adult americans

Is a shorter life with more years lived in poor health a defining attribute of the life cycle of disadvantaged groups? Based on the J990 5% Public Use Microdata Survey, we develop life table models of healthy (or active) life for the major racial groups, by sex, in the United States. The analysis underscores the complexity of the relationship between morbidity and mortality in the population. For Asians, longer life is associated with fewer years lived in poor health. In contrast, Native Americans’ relatively longer lives are accompanied by extended periods of chronic health problems. of all racial groups, blacks live the fewest years, and they live a high proportion of those years with a chronic health problem. Hispanics also live substantially fewer years, yet the period of life they spend with a health problem is relatively compressed. Racial differences in the link between morbidity and mortality point to the importance of investigating how chronic diseases and disease prevention and treatment are related to active life across the population subgroups.     

Social mobility and personal satisfaction: evidence from ten countries

This paper examines survey data relating class mobility to satisfaction and dissatisfaction with seven different domains of everyday life among nationally representative samples of men and women living in ten industrialized nations. The evidence is set against competing pessimistic and optimistic accounts of the mobility experience found in earlier literature. Results show that individuals who move from working-class origins to middle-class destinations are no more likely to be systematically satisfied or dissatisfied with life than are the socially immobile or even those downwardly mobile from advantaged backgrounds into the working class. Indeed, in all nations, the overall association between class experience and satisfaction with life is both weak and uneven across the different life-domains. The study also serves to illustrate an important principle of research methodology more generally.