Estimation of Error and Bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo Decision Analysis Using the Bootstrap

Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value-of-information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias.     

FAMILY SYSTEMS THERAPY AFTER OPERATIONS DESERT STORM WITH EUROPEAN-THEATER VETERANS

We describe a quasi-experimental trial of time-limited family therapy with veterans and families of veterans who served in Europe, outside the war zone, during Operation Desert Storm (ODS). Family systems therapy was provided both to individuals and conjointly to couples or families during the acute postwar readjustment period. The intervention adapted strategies from structural, strategic, intergenerational, and behavioral family therapies in a brief-treatment protocol for systemic stressor resolution. Veterans given family system therapy were able to resume functional levels of psychosocial adjustment and reduce the risk of long-term (Chronic or delayed) psychosocial impairment. Based on these preliminary findings, controlled evaluation of family systems therapy appears warranted for indi-     

On perfect simulation for some mixtures of distributions

This paper studies the implementation of the coupling from the past (CFTP) method of Propp and Wilson (1996) in the set-up of two and three component mixtures with known components and unknown weights. We show that monotonicity structures can be exhibited in both cases, but that CFTP can still be costly for three component mixtures. We conclude with a simulation experiment exhibiting an almost perfect sampling scheme where we only consider a subset of the exhaustive set of starting values.     

Life satisfaction in midlife childless and empty-nest men and women

The primary purpose of this study was to contrast the life satisfaction of midlife empty-nest and childless individuals. Seventy-two men and women reported on their satisfaction with 11 areas of life as well as with regard to children. Empty-nest individuals were more satisfied than childless persons with regard to their decisions regarding children; however, the childless individuals were not unhappy with their decisions. Empty-nest individuals were also more positive than childless individuals about contact with children. There were no differences between the two groups with regard to areas of life satisfaction not related to children; nor were there significant gender differences in life satisfaction. The results were discussed in relation to both theory and data concerning midlife satisfaction and adjustment.SMS AssociatesThe research was completed by James E. Bell in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the masters of counseling degree at Arizona State University.     

Sourcing Strategy,Supplier Relationships and Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation of UK Organizations

This article conceptualizes and empirically examines buyer–supplier relationships in respect of supply sourcing strategies, relationship characteristics and firm performance. Two sourcing strategies available to organizations are examined, critical and leverage, which in turn, influence the approach to managing the supplier relationship (arms‐length or collaborative). We argue that different relationship approaches are appropriate to achieving different performance outcomes. A structural equation model, using a sample of 142 manufacturing firms based in the United Kingdom, is used to test this hypothesized model. The results indicate that a critical sourcing strategy requires collaborative supplier relationships in order to achieve higher relationship and business outcomes, while leverage sourcing strategies have a direct impact on these same performance outcomes. In addition, a leverage strategy was associated with increased levels of supplier power, though this power was found not to have a significant effect on performance. Our study provides support for the importance of aligning sourcing strategies to particular supplier relationship approaches in order to improve firm performance. Managerial implications of these findings and future directions for research are then offered.     

Children of Adolescent Mothers: Cognitive and Behavioral Status at Age Six

The cognitive and behavioral status at age six years of 185 children of adolescent mothers (60.5% boys) were assessed using the mother (CBCL) and teacher (TRF) report forms of the Child Behavior Checklist and the Bracken Basic Concepts Scale. There was evidence for impairment in all areas of functioning. More than half of the sample exceeded the borderline clinical cutoff (T = 60) on either the CBCL or TRF Total Problem score, and nearly half the sample had Bracken scores that were more than 1 SD below the normative mean. Only 26.9% of the children were in the normal range on all three measures. These results are discussed in terms of implications for social work practice with children and adolescent mother families.     

Advancing the Chicago School of Pragmatic Sociology: The Life and Work of Tamotsu Shibutani*

Tamotsu Shibutani is a contemporary proponent of the Chicago School of pragmatic sociology who has devoted his academic efforts to using the Chicago School of pragmatism to analyze problems of contemporary social life and to refine the theoretical tools available to the discipline of sociology. He has evaluated such topics as the Japanese relocation centers, the social construction of rumor, demoralization in Army life, the dynamics of ethnic stratification, and the resolution of ethnic tensions. Shibutani's books on social psychology and general sociology synthesize micro and macro variables, with careful attention to both agency and social control. His work is free of metaphysical puzzles and is true to the scientific method, clearly reflecting the essence of the Chicago School of pragmatic sociology.     

The Effect of Socialization Mechanisms and Performance Measurement on Supplier Integration in New Product Development

This article examines the effect of socialization mechanisms and supplier performance measurement on the level of supplier integration in new product development and subsequent firm performance outcomes. Prior research has found socialization mechanisms and performance measures to be effective in managing supplier relationships, though research examining their impact within a product development context has been limited. Socialization mechanisms, such as supplier conferences and on‐site visits, help establish communication and information‐sharing routines necessary to achieve supplier integration in the product development process. Using performance measures to evaluate a supplier helps focus managerial attention on areas such as innovation and communication that are important to integration success. A structural equation model, using a sample of 142 manufacturing firms based in the United Kingdom, indicates that the level of supplier integration in new product development is positively influenced by socialization mechanisms and innovation‐focused measures of supplier performance, but not significantly associated with the use of communication measures. In turn, increased levels of supplier integration led to improvements in both collaboration outcomes and business performance. Socialization mechanisms were also found to have a direct effect on collaboration outcomes achieved by the firm. Managerial implications and future research directions are discussed.     

Effects of work and retirement within long-term marital relationships

Long-term marriages of 21 retired working class couples were examined for the post-retirement effects on the marriage's social integration, happiness, involvement and satisfaction. Evidence suggests that marital patterns evolving in response to the work situation result in different types of relationships for dual paycheck and traditional couples. While both groups were happy, satisfied and involved in home, family and their own dyadic relationship, dual paycheck couples had more egalitarian and cooperative relationships. Their increased happiness, satisfaction and involvement are indicative of the benefits of their former dual employment.