Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher--and what appear to be more accurate--estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.     

论幼儿行为心理对幼儿园建筑构思的影响

当前幼儿园建筑作为较高层次的设计,需要对方案解析、功能要求及环境品质等问题做出相应的调整,尤其不能忽略儿童行为及心理的需要,特别是针对其思想、感情和行动的影响方式。幼儿园的建筑设计和环境建设与现代幼儿行为观念的变革一脉相承。由此可见,其建筑学的处理手法蕴涵了从室内到室外可持续发展的行为理念。究其原因是行为学极大地影响了从建筑布局到结构形式的固有组织。幼儿园建筑设计的正确方向应是作为环境文脉的延续,从而使今后的研究更加明确,更具有针对性。     

Evaluating social investment in disability policy

Disability policy in European countries is displaying a shift towards social investment: increasing human capital and access to the labour market. The reasoning that underlies this transition is that disabled persons would benefit from mainstream employment, but are impeded in traditional policy by deficiencies in labour supply and demand. However, the shift towards more activating policies in many countries is accompanied by a decline in social protection. It is unclear whether social investment may effectively promote the employment chances of disabled persons within this context. The present research examines this question through a quantitative, cross-sectional, multilevel analysis on microdata from 22 EU countries. Our findings suggest greater activation to predict lower employment chances, while reducing passive support shows mixed effects. Conversely, measures for facilitation in daily life predict greater employment chances, as do measures for sheltered work. These findings raise questions over the value of social investment for disabled persons—and underline the need to overcome broader barriers in the labour market and in society.     

Demographic differences in response rates for PHQ9 in a university student population

Objective: To examine differences in complete response rates for depression screening questions based on demographic characteristics. Methods: Cross-sectional study examining associations between demographic characteristics and completely responding depression-screening questions. Participants: “Healthy Minds Study” data, collected in a public University in February 2016, where 7,326 students participated. Results: women (AOR: 0.69; 95% CI =0.57–0.83) and gay/lesbian students (AOR: 0.24; 95% CI =0.10–0.60) had better complete response rates. Non-US (AOR: 1.46; 95% CI =1.03–2.07), black (AOR: 3.32; 95% CI =1.92–5.77), and Middle-Eastern students (AOR: 3.73; 95% CI =1.73–8.02) had lower complete response rates. Conclusions: Our study shows sex, gender, citizenship, and race categories have significant differences in complete response rates for the outcome. Our findings have several implications; including recognizing interventions for depression based on responders may not target those that tend to be “partial-responders”. Efforts in survey design, recruiting and completion of surveys should be maximized.     

精益成本管理模式及其启示

国外的精益成本管理模式是以客户满意为前提,以精益管理为手段,以降低成本为途径,以提高企业竞争力为目标,形成了包括采购、设计、生产、物流、服务等作业环节上的企业供应链成本管理理念。随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立和完善,企业成为市场的主体,服务客户的观念和成本竞争的意识已深入企业日常管理活动中,使我国企业开始面临以作业流程为核心的供应链的再造。因此,国外精益成本管理思想很值得我国企业界深入学习和实践。然而,精益成本管理对企业的信息交流渠道与组织管理机构要求的条件较高,目前在我国实施还有一定的困难,但是,它对我国企业改善成本管理的基础工作仍提出了很多有益的启示。     

修德而后可讲学——论《明儒学案》的精神

长期以来,学界主要从哲学、学术史、体例学等方面来研究《明儒学案》,很少有人从修德角度来探讨《明儒学案》。其实黄宗羲的创作宗旨在于修德,《明儒学案》的精神是“修德而后可讲学”。围绕着修德,黄宗羲从三方面来评论明代学术:一是修德重在自得,学术要在自家身心上生根。二是修德深浅关乎学术深浅。判断学术深浅要考察其圆融性和深刻性。圆融性要求说话前后一贯,理论没有矛盾。深刻性可以从如何解决本体与工夫,从如何回答理-心凑泊、儒-释分别这两个问题,从如何进行学术辩论,从如何讨论同一个话题这四方面看出。三是修德具有效果,可以使人坦然面对贫穷、危险、死亡,可以“所过者化”。本文通过考察黄宗羲对明儒学术的评论,再现了黄宗羲修德的深浅,建构了黄宗羲的修德理论,同时期望引起现代学者能对自己的学术研究进行深刻反思。     

新疆农业经济波动的数量分析

新疆农业波动的数量分析以新疆农业总产值增长率作为考察指标,按照"谷一谷"划分法,在1979-2004年的26年中,新疆农业增长率呈现5个周期(其中第5个周期尚未结束).纵向上,改革开放以后新疆农业波动状态特征是由剧烈转向平缓;横向上,新疆农业波动幅度大于新疆经济波动幅度.     

Measuring Child Poverty in South Africa: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale and an Updated Profile

This paper offers evidence on the sensitivity of child poverty in South Africa to changes in the adult equivalence scale (AES) and updates the child poverty profile based on the Income and Expenditure Survey 2005/06. Setting the poverty line at the 40th percentile of households calculated with different AESs the scope and composition of child poverty are found to be relatively insensitive to the scale used. The rankings of children of different ages, girls versus boys, racial groupings and children living in rural versus urban areas are unaffected by choice of AES, although some provincial rankings on the poverty headcount measure are. The proportions of children and households ‘correctly’ identified as poor for the full range of scales is extremely high. These findings support the argument that it may be appropriate for profiling poverty in South Africa to use a poverty line based on a per capita welfare measure. For the construction of the child poverty profile, per capita income is used as the welfare indicator with the poverty line set at the 40th percentile of household. The profile suggests that poverty amongst children is more extensive than amongst the population or adults even after the massive injection of transfers into households with poor children through the child support grant. The child poverty headcount, depth and severity are all highest amongst children age 0–4 and lowest amongst those aged 15–17, who are not yet beneficiaries of the grants. They are also highest amongst African and Coloured children. Large variations across provinces remain. The analysis underlines the importance of prioritising children in the fight against poverty, particularly in their earliest years.