Hard and soft constraints in linear programming

The linear programme and its constraints are split into two parts. The first consists of the traditional structure, the second being akin to goal programming. SOFT constraints are weighted relative to each other and then approximately weighted relative to the HARD constraints. The LP is run four times giving different emphasis to the SOFT and HARD constraints. The manager requesting the LP has then to decide which gives the most appropriate solution.     

Book review

Life Table Techniques and Their Applications. Krishnan Namboodiri and Chirayath M. Suchindran. Orlando: Academic Press, 1987. xii+275 pp. $59.00.     

Debilitation's aftermath: stochastic process models of mortality

A stochastic differential equation model is developed to clarify the interaction of debilitation, recuperation, selection, and aging. The model yields various insights about the lingering mortality consequences of disasters such as wars, famines, and epidemics that may weaken the survivors. A key result is that debilitation and selection are interdependent: debilitation that increases population heterogeneity will result in subsequent selection; selection, by altering the distribution of population heterogeneity, will influence the impact of debilitating events.     

Alternative Projections of the U.S. population

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.     

Sociodemographic and Health Profiles of the Oldest Old In China

Unique data from a 1998 healthy longevity baseline survey provide demographic, socio‐economic, and health characteristics of the oldest old, aged 80–105, in China. This subpopu‐lation is growing rapidly and is likely to need extensive social and health services. A large majority of Chinese oldest old live with their children and rely mainly on children for financial support and care. Most Chinese oldest old had no or very little education. Ability to function independently in daily living declines rapidly and self‐rated health declines moderately across the oldest old ages. As compared to their urban counterparts, the rural oldest old have far less pension support, are significantly less educated, and are more likely to be widowed and to rely on children for support. Apart from higher rates of survival, the female oldest old in China are far more disadvantaged than the male oldest old.     

Economic lot disposition policies for single attribute sampling plans

Traditionally, single sampling plans have provided but two possible lot disposition policies, either to (1) accept or reject and screen, or to (2) accept or reject and scrap. This is particularly true of statistical designs. Economically based plans, however, provide a framework wherein several lot disposition policies may be invoked in accordance with estimated lot quality. This paper illustrates how such designs may be realized.     

Repeated resuscitation: How lifesaving alters life tables

How does saving lives affect the force of mortality and life table statistics? How can the progress being made in reducing the force of mortality be interpreted in terms of lifesaving? How many times can a person expect to have his or her life saved as a result of this progress? We develop a model to answer these questions and illustrate the results by using mortality rates for the United States in 1900 and 1980 and as projected for 2050.     

The future of human longevity--how important are markets and innovation?

In a hearing before the United States Senate Special Committee on Aging, a well-respected demographer warns that there is no evidence of slowing in the long-term rise in best-practice life expectancy in developed countries. The author discusses how these findings will affect the future of Social Security and argues for a larger, more focused effort with respect to longevity research by demographers, epidemiologists, and economists.     

Joint strategic planning between health and local authorities

This paper describes an approach to joint consideration of strategic planning problems between Health Authorities and Local Authorities. It is currently being pilot tested in the UK by two Area Health Authorities and their corresponding County Councils. The approach is most effective in planning the provision of health and social services for periods between three and ten years ahead and has been particularly designed for planning the non-acute services. These are the services for which joint planning between the health and social services is most important. Depending on local needs and planning priorities the approach may be used for one or more ‘client groups’ (the Elderly, Mentally Ill, Mentally Handicapped, Physically Handicapped etc.). In the pilot applications the approach is being used in planning for the Elderly client group only. The model now used relies on very simple assumptions, arithmetic calculations, and a heuristic optimisation algorithm, in place of a previous mathematical programming model originally aimed at national planning needs and then adapted to local planning. The revised model has achieved these simplifications, while extending the power of the model to fit local needs, by separating out different parts of the problem corresponding to different stages in the planning process, and developing techniques appropriate to each. In a companion paper² in this issue authors from the participating Authorities put their views on the pilot applications of the approach.