A Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Japan

A predictive case‐cohort model was applied to Japanese data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) for the period 1985–2020. BSE risk in cattle was estimated as the expected number of detectable cases per year. The model was comprised of a stochastic spreadsheet calculation model with the following inputs: (1) the origin and quantity of live cattle and meat and bone meal imported into Japan, (2) the age distribution of native cattle, and (3) the estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R₀) for BSE. The estimated probability of having zero detectable cases in Japan in 2015 was 0.90 (95% CI 0.83–0.95). The corresponding value for 2020 was 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–0.99). The model predicted that detectable cases may occur in Japan beyond 2015 because of the assumption that continued transmission was permitted to occur (albeit at a very low level) after the 2001 ban on the importation and domestic use of all processed animal proteins for the production of animal feed and for fertilizer. These results reinforce the need for animal health authorities to monitor the efficacy of control measures so that the future course of the BSE epidemic in Japan can be predicted with greater certainty.     

School environment and risk preferences: Experimental evidence

Using a field experiment with high school students, we evaluate the development of risk preferences. Examining the impact of school characteristics on preference development reveals both peer and quality effects. For the peer effect, individuals in schools with a higher percentage of students on free or reduced lunches (hence a higher proportion of low-income peers with whom to interact) are significantly more risk averse. For the quality effect, individuals in schools with smaller class sizes and a higher percentage of educators with advanced degrees have higher, more moderate levels of risk aversion. We further discuss economic, cognitive and emotional development theories of risk preferences. Data show demographic-related patterns: girls are more risk averse on average, while taller and nonwhite individuals are more risk tolerant.     

Civil society in Canada: A case study of rural and urban planning contexts

This paper explores the political concept of civil society and its emergence in multi-level rural and urban planning contexts. The first section conceptualizes civil society in the broader context within which it develops and we discuss global civil society to establish the need for a more local and regional focus. We then present considerations for assessing civil society and outline the research approach. The second section presents two case examples: (1) rural civil society in British Columbia, Canada focusing on the socio-political environment that enabled a shift away from conventional top-down, state-led forest management to devolved local control, and; (2) urban civil society in Waterloo Region, Ontario, which illustrates the response of local organizations to the wider socio-economic problems of housing provision in the Region. In both rural and urban contexts, there was longstanding tacit local support for each cause but significant triggers were needed to open policy windows and enable civil society organizations to help shift management ideologies in the forestry and housing sectors. Empowering civil actors through, for example, the devolution of decision making and responsibilities, and the redistribution of resources, helped to foster forms of legitimacy needed for emerging local and regional civil society organizations and networks.     

Exploring Politicized Trust in a Racially Diverse Computer Science Classroom

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, abroad range of policymakers, corporations, educators, and scholars in the United States have catapulted computer science (CS) education from the sidelines to the center of K-12 public education discourse. While calls for CS education are often framed in terms of national and economic competitiveness, there is a growing interest amongst equity scholars in curricular interventions that directly engage the ethical and sociopolitical issues surrounding CS and its role in society. Yet, less attention has been given to how sociocultural dynamics of classrooms play a mediating role in these spaces. Drawing on video data from an equity-oriented CS classroom, we argue aconflict that arose during design activities was rooted in alack of trust and solidarity between students. Ultimately, we make the case that in addition to curricular innovations, equity efforts in CS education must prioritize the cultivation of positive student relationships.     

The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory?

Although it is commonly believed that the volume, diversity, geographical scope, and overall complexity of international migration have increased as part of globalization processes, this idea has remained largely untested. This article analyzes shifts in global migration patterns between 1960 and 2000 using indices that simultaneously capture changes in the spread, distance, and intensity of migration. While the results challenge the idea that there has been a global increase in volume, diversity, and geographical scope of migration, main migratory shifts have been directional. Migration has globalized from a destination country perspective but hardly from an origin country perspective, with migrants from an increasingly diverse array of non‐European‐origin countries concentrating in a shrinking pool of prime destination countries. The global migration map has thus become more skewed. Rather than refuting the globalization of migration hypothesis, this seems to reflect the asymmetric nature of globalization processes in general.     

Distress,Need for Help,and Positive Feelings Derived from Participation in Sex Research: Findings of a Population Study in the Netherlands

To inform cost-benefit analyses of potential harms and benefits for participants in sex research, the current study investigated potential effects of completing a self-report sex survey. The data stem from a sexual health study in a population sample in the Netherlands (N = 8,064; 15 to 70 years old). Three measures assessed potential effects of participation: distress, need for help, and positive feelings related to research participation. Analyses showed that levels of experienced distress and need for help resulting from participation in a self-report sex survey were low, while participants reported positive feelings to a considerable extent. Only few participants reported levels of positive experiences that were lower than the levels of distress (4.8%) or need for help (1.7%) they experienced. Although differences were found according to sociodemographic characteristics and sexual experiences, the proportion of variance explained by these variables was generally small. While the findings of this study show that the balance between potential harm and positive outcomes seems disturbed for few participants, researchers should provide participants with the details of care providers in case they experience any distress or need for help.     

Decision process of allocating projects to project managers

Allocating projects to project managers (PM) is a crucial decision in project management. Choosing the PM must be undertaken in a structured way, and thereby take into account the needs of the project and the PM’s competences and availability. The proposed model optimises the total time that PMs have available and takes into account the constraint of the switchover time loss within the mathematical programming. It model is part of a three-stage approach where: (1) projects are sorted using a multicriteria approach; (2) PMs are sorted using a multicriteria approach; and (3) the final allocation to intra-classes of projects is made using the optimisation model. This proposal contributes to aiding decision-makers involved in allocating projects: by respecting the limit of the time that PMs have available, or by extrapolating PMs’ available hours in which case overtime will have to be used. The model is applied in a Brazilian Energy Company.     

全球法与掠夺:法治的阴暗面

"法治"(rule of law),习惯上已被当作一个具有积极本质、政治中立的"工具",且效力普适,放之四海而皆准.作为Ugo Mattei与Laura Nadar教授合著的Plunder:When the Ruleof Law is Illegal (Blackwell Publishing,Oxford 2008)一书观点的综述,本文认为,作为一个歧义丛生的概念,"法治"具有光明与阴暗的两面性,而"法治"的阴暗面长期以来一直被排除在公众讨论的范围之外."法治"作为一个华丽辞藻,已被西方强势者所挟持,用来论证其(主要)对"发展中"国家的干涉及其最终演变成的掠夺(plunder)实践的合法性,并使西方经济势力对"非西方世界"(the rest)的扩张成为可能.基于此,我们得出了这样的结论:"法治"已被"非法地"(illegally)利用.目前国际金融机构--当今的全球立法者--在用"法治"观念包裹着其提供给"发展中世界"的各种改革方案的背后,隐藏着智识短视、种族中心主义和帝国主义立场."技术性"概念对"法"概念的偷换,美国法所独享的全球性支配地位以及当今西方跨国公司的帝国主义态度等作为其中的一些指标,向我们展示了殖民主义与当今新自由主义政策之间的沆瀣一气.     

Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution—Part II

This is the second part of a paper which focuses on reviewing methods for estimating the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The GPD is a very important distribution in the extreme value context. It is commonly used for modeling the observations that exceed very high thresholds. The ultimate success of the GPD in applications evidently depends on the parameter estimation process. Quite a few methods exist in the literature for estimating the GPD parameters. Estimation procedures, such as the maximum likelihood (ML), the method of moments (MOM) and the probability weighted moments (PWM) method were described in Part I of the paper. We shall continue to review methods for estimating the GPD parameters, in particular methods that are robust and procedures that use the Bayesian methodology. As in Part I, we shall focus on those that are relatively simple and straightforward to be applied to real world data.