The Geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Geometric distribution and the time to event follow a Birnbaum Saunders distribution. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a Geometric Birnbaum Saunders model with cure rate. Finally, to analyze a data set from the medical area.     

The Poisson Birnbaum–Saunders model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Poisson distribution and the time to event has the Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) distribution. We define the Poisson BS distribution and provide two useful representations for its density function which facilitate to obtain some mathematical properties. Two closed-form expressions for the moments of the new distribution are given. We estimate the parameters of the model with cure rate using maximum likelihood. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform a global influence study. We analyse a real data set from the medical area.     

The Power Series Cure Rate Model: An Application to a Cutaneous Melanoma Data

In this article we propose a new cure rate survival model. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest is assumed to follow an exponential discrete power series distribution. An advantage of our model is that it is very flexible, including several particular cases, such as, Bernoulli, geometric, Poisson, etc. Moreover, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Distribution fitting can be tested for the best fitting in a straightforward way. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed. Our proposed model is illustrated through cutaneous melanoma data.     

A new mathematical approach for the estimation of the AUC and its variability under different experimental designs in preclinical studies

The aim of the present work was to develop a new mathematical method for estimating the area under the curve (AUC) and its variability that could be applied in different preclinical experimental designs and amenable to be implemented in standard calculation worksheets. In order to assess the usefulness of the new approach, different experimental scenarios were studied and the results were compared with those obtained with commonly used software: WinNonlin® and Phoenix WinNonlin®. The results do not show statistical differences among the AUC values obtained by both procedures, but the new method appears to be a better estimator of the AUC standard error, measured as the coverage of 95% confidence interval. In this way, the new proposed method demonstrates to be as useful as WinNonlin® software when it was applicable. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Increasing offensive or defensive efficiency? An analysis of Italian and Spanish football

This paper analyses technical efficiency of Italian and Spanish football during three recent seasons, to shed light on the sport performance of professional football clubs. To achieve this we have used mathematical optimisation methods, particularly DEA models, which enable the calculation of the frontiers of efficient production. Some of the most interesting results are the following. Firstly, the Spanish league is clearly more homogeneous and competitive than the Italian league. Secondly, to obtain a better classification in the Italian league, it is much more important to improve defensive, rather than offensive, efficiency. The popular maxim holds in Italy: the best attack begins with a good defence. Third, in Spain our analysis supports the idea that to improve the ranking in the league, the best-rewarded strategy consists in improving offensive efficiency playing at home ground, followed by increasing offensive efficiency when playing away from home.     

A bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data: local influence and residual analysis

The use of bivariate distributions plays a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. In this paper, we consider a location scale model for bivariate survival times based on the proposal of a copula to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. For the proposed model, we consider inferential procedures based on maximum likelihood. Gains in efficiency from bivariate models are also examined in the censored data setting. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data. Sensitivity analysis methods such as local and total influence are presented and derived under three perturbation schemes. The martingale marginal and the deviance marginal residual measures are used to check the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, we propose a new measure which we call modified deviance component residual. The methodology in the paper is illustrated on a lifetime data set for kidney patients.     

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.     

Small-Sample Comparisons for Goodness-of-Fit Statistics in One-Way Multinomials with Composite Hypotheses

The small-sample behaviour of power-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics with composite hypotheses was evaluated with multinomial models of up to five cells and up to three parameters. Their performance was assessed by comparing asymptotic test sizes with exact test sizes obtained by enumeration in the near right tail, where 1-?∈?(0.90,?0.95], and in the far right tail, where 1-?∈?(0.95,?0.99]. The study addressed all combinations of power-diparse JAS312HH01.sgmvergence estimates of indices ν?∈?{-1/2,?0,?1/3,?1/2,?2/3,?1,?3/ 2} and power-divergence statistics of indices λ?∈?{-1/2,?0,?1/3,?1/2,?2/3,?1,?3/2}. The results indicate that the asymptotic approximation is sufficiently accurate (by the criterion that the average exact size is no larger than ±10% of the nominal asymptotic test size) in the near right tail when ν=0 and λ=1/2, and in the far right tail when ν=0 and λ=1/3, in both cases providing that the smallest expectation in the composite hypothesis exceeds 5. The only exception to this rule is the case of models that render a near-equiprobable composite hypothesis on the boundaries of the parameter space, where average exact sizes are usually quite different from nominal sizes despite the fact that the smallest expectation in these conditions is usually well above 5.     

The Catholic response to the population problem

A survey of efforts led or sponsored by the Catholic church in response to the population problem in the Philippines. These efforts stem from the Church's belief that population growth is related to the overall picture of development, and that priority must go to social and economic justice. The Catholic Church of the Philippines (to which 85% of the population belong) views it as a problem basically involving care of people, and directs its efforts primarily at internal human sexual control rather than external contraceptive control. Family Life Education began as a program in the church in the 1960s. Efforts by priests, nuns, and lay leaders in Mindanao eventually resulted in counseling in husband-wife relations, marriage commitment, human sexuality, parent-child relations, and responsible parenthood, and to the creation of college courses to prepare teachers in tackling sex education. A program offering natural family planning was also started, initially for employees of a packing firm and later expanding throughout the province. In 1975, the program was launched in Manila, and a year later had 3 family life centers. The ovulation (or Billings) method is offered -- an advantage to low income people because it does not require purchase of a thermometer. Success of this method requires a sense of responsibility on the part of both husband and wife. Widespread international interest in the ovulation method has led to formation of an International Federation for Family Life Promotion, to which the Philippine Federation for Natural Family Planning has applied for membership. The IFFLP is working with the WHO Human Reproduction Unit on 2 projects, part of one of them (a field trial for evaluation) being conducted in Iligan City, Iloilo City, and Manila. Among the concerns of the IFFLP-WHO collaboration is developing a standardized Natural Family Planning curriculum or educational package.     

Small-sample comparisons for powerdivergence goodness-of-fit statistics for symmetric and skewed simple null hypotheses

Power-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics have asymptotically a chi-squared distribution. Asymptotic results may not apply in small-sample situations, and the exact significance of a goodness-of-fit statistic may potentially be over- or under-stated by the asymptotic distribution. Several correction terms have been proposed to improve the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution, but their performance has only been studied for the equiprobable case. We extend that research to skewed hypotheses. Results are presented for one-way multinomials involving k = 2 to 6 cells with sample sizes N = 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 and nominal test sizes f = 0.1, 0.05, 0.01 and 0.001. Six power-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics were investigated, and five correction terms were included in the study. Our results show that skewness itself does not affect the accuracy of the asymptotic approximation, which depends only on the magnitude of the smallest expected frequency (whether this comes from a small sample with the equiprobable hypothesis or a large sample with a skewed hypothesis). Throughout the conditions of the study, the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution seems to be optimal for Pearson's X² statistic (the power-divergence statistic of index u = 1) when k > 3 and the smallest expected frequency is as low as between 0.1 and 1.5 (depending on the particular k, N and nominal test size), but a computationally inexpensive improvement can be obtained in these cases by using a moment-corrected h² distribution. If the smallest expected frequency is even smaller, a normal correction yields accurate tests through the log-likelihood-ratio statistic G² (the power-divergence statistic of index u = 0).