Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

Changing Less-Preferred Duties to More-Preferred: A Potential Strategy for Improving Supervisor Work Enjoyment

We evaluated a strategy for making highly nonpreferred work duties more preferred as a potential means of enhancing work enjoyment among supervisors in a human service setting. Repeated preference ratings and rankings were completed by 4 supervisors during baseline to identify their most disliked work tasks. These tasks were then altered by soliciting each supervisor's opinion regarding why the respective task was so disliked and what could be done to make the task more preferable, removing disliked stimuli associated with the tasks, and adding liked stimuli during completion of the tasks. Following the task alterations, ratings of task likeability increased for all 4 supervisors. Preference rankings of target tasks also increased, including from rankings as among the least preferred tasks to among the most preferred tasks. All supervisors rated the task-alteration process as making their quality of work life better, and all chose to continue the intervention. These results occurred without any observed decrease in work quality. Results are discussed regarding the potential contribution of behavioral interventions with subjective concepts, such as enjoyment, that are viewed as important by the general populace. However, qualifications with relying on verbal reports also are noted.     

Internet Paradox Revisited

Kraut et al. (1998) reported negative effects of using the Internet on social involvement and psychological well-being among new Internet users in 1995–96. We called the effects a "paradox" because participants used the Internet heavily for communication, which generally has positive effects. A 3-year follow-up of 208 of these respondents found that negative effects dissipated. We also report findings from a longitudinal survey in 1998–99 of 406 new computer and television purchasers. This sample generally experienced positive effects of using the Internet on communication, social involvement, and well-being. However, consistent with a "rich get richer" model, using the Internet predicted better outcomes for extraverts and those with more social support but worse outcomes for introverts and those with less support.     

Construal Processes in Preference Assessment

Interpreting people's preferences requires understanding how they have construed their tasks, interpreting the proposed alternatives in the context where the evaluation is being made. With stylized experimental or survey choices, researchers' challenge is typically identifying the features that people add in order to make their task real enough to answer (i.e., how they read between the lines). With rich “real world” choices, researchers' challenge is typically identifying the features that people neglect, as they reduce their task to manageable complexity (i.e., which lines they choose to read). In either case, if people misunderstand or mistrust the stated transaction, they may evaluate a different offer than the one that was proposed. Such misconstruals are a nuisance for investigators, insofar as dealing with them delays the measurements that motivated the research. However, they can also provide an opportunity, by focusing attention on how people give meaning to choice situations. This article describes procedures for studying construal processes, strategies for getting people to answer the questions that interest researchers, and options for interpreting responses when people construe questions differently than was intended.     

A natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous poisson process with an exponential intensity function

This article presents a natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with an exponential intensity function, for modeling the failure rate of repairable systems. The behavior of the conjugate prior distribution with respect to its parameters is studied, and the use of this prior in Bayesian estimation is compared to two other estimation approaches (the use of independent prior distributions, and the bivariate normal distribution). The use of the conjugate prior proposed here facilitates Bayesian statistical analysis of aging. In particular, the proposed prior allows us to explicitly account for dependence between the initial failure rate and the aging rate. This is a significant improvement over the assumptions made in most prior work (either the assumption that the aging rate is known, or the assumption that the initial failure rate and the aging rate are independent). Monte Carlo simulation shows that Bayesian estimation using the proposed prior generally performs at least as well as Bayesian estimation using independent priors for the initial failure rate and the aging rate,except in the case where the prior distribution underestimates both the initial failure rate and the aging rate.     

The Center for Intellectual Property Handbook,edited by Kimberly Bonner and the staff of the Center for Intellectual Property. New York: Neal-Schuman Publishers,Inc., 2006. 257 p. $85.00. ISBN: 1-55570-561-8 (paperback)

Abstract

For the acquisition of periodicals and indexes, the selector role of subject specialists and reference librarians has been transformed by electronic access. In the past these librarians made independent recommendations for new periodicals, indexes, and abstracts by using traditional selection criteria (e.g., relevance, quality, and cost). With electronic resources, considerations such as licensing negotiations, consortial agreements, and technical issues have complicated the decision-making process and have sometimes removed it from individual librarians or even individual libraries. The author discusses the opportunities for individual librarians, particularly in public service roles, to participate in serials collection management decisions and provides a case study of business periodicals collection management in an academic library. Serials Review 2002; 28:283–286.