A program to support the construction and evaluation of resilience indicators

The main objective of this work is to propose a method and a tool to support the development of indicators able to inform an organization about the state of its resilience through a cyclical process of identifying its resilience factors, proposing resilience indicators, assessing its organizational resilience followed by assessing and improving the resilience indicators. The research uses concepts from complex adaptive systems and from resilience engineering to establish an initial set of indicators able to assess elements that contribute to organizational resilience, and structures them temporarily as a hierarchy. A software application to support indicator definition and structuring, questionnaire generation, and result assessment activities was built to assist in speeding up the experiment-adjust cycle. Prototype indicators were instantiated with helicopter operating companies in mind, and were reviewed by a domain expert.     

Scale mixtures log-Birnbaum–Saunders regression models with censored data: a Bayesian approach

The main objective of this paper is to develop a full Bayesian analysis for the Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) regression model based on scale mixtures of the normal (SMN) distribution with right-censored survival data. The BS distributions based on SMN models are a very general approach for analysing lifetime data, which has as special cases the Student-t-BS, slash-BS and the contaminated normal-BS distributions, being a flexible alternative to the use of the corresponding BS distribution or any other well-known compatible model, such as the log-normal distribution. A Gibbs sample algorithm with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the Bayesian estimates of the parameters. Moreover, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given and case-deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The newly developed procedures are illustrated on a real data set previously analysed under BS regression models.     

Sons or daughters? Cross-cultural comparisons of the sex preferences of Australian,Greek, Italian,Malay, Chinese and Indian parents in Australia and Malaysia

In examining reasons for fertility decline research has focused upon changes in the demand for children, in particular evidence of a transition in values and disvalues of children from high- to low-fertility countries. Two surveys of the value of children to 717 parents in Australia (Australian, Greek and Italian respondents) and 522 parents in Peninsular Malaysia (Malay, Chinese and Indian respondents) investigated the existence of and changes in sex preference and the motivations for wanting sons and daughters. Son preference was in general higher for couples interviewed in Malaysia. The reasons for wanting a son centered upon traditional values of old age support, continuation of the family name and the completion of male tasks in the home. Within Australia, Southern European immigrants mentioned the need to continue the family name, but the Australian-born emphasized the personality and companionship benefits of a son. The reasons for wanting a daughter indicated an even clearer breakdown of interests in the two countries over the traditional as compared to the more psychologically oriented benefits in having a girl. Overall, the comparison between countries indicated a general decline in son preference from high- to low-fertility regimes and somewhat less concern with the traditional roles of children.Requests for reprints should be directed to Dr. V. Callan, Department of Psychology, University of Queensland, Brisbane 4067, Queensland, Australia. The research projects were funded by grants from the Population and Development Policy Research Program of the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations, the Australian Department of Health, and the Australian National University.     

Pregnancy avoidance and coital behavior

This study proposes a behavioral model that identifies determinants of coital activity in the context of pregnancy avoidance and assesses the relationships using weekly panel data collected on 300 rural married women in Sri Lanka in 1988. We discuss the utility of the design, which is similar to that of an epidemiological surveillance system, for the measurement of coital behavior and pregnancy risk perceptions. Perceptions of pregnancy risk, spousal agreement on sexual relations, menstrual and lactational status, and cycle timing, all measured daily, are found to influence significantly the probability of coitus on that day. The findings suggest that substantial gains in studying fertility regulation are likely from closer investigation of the behavioral connections between motivation for pregnancy avoidance and coital incidence. Comparison of such panel data with those of cross-sectional sample surveys also provides insights into the validity of measures of coital and contraceptive behavior.     

Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men's labor migration affects their non-migrating wives' perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men's migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and those married to non-migrants while also distinguishing between economically successful and unsuccessful migration. The analysis finds that the economic success of men's migration, rather than migration itself, significantly predicts women's worries about getting infected by their husbands or their own extramarital partners, and their husbands' stance on condom use. These findings are situated within a broader context of socio-economic, gender, and marital dynamics and vulnerabilities produced or amplified by male labor migration in sub-Saharan and similar developing settings.     

Employment programs for people with psychiatric disability: the case for change

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of disability employment policy in assisting people with psychiatric disability to find, or return to, paid work. We argue that the poor employment outcomes from current programs establish the need for a paradigmatic shift in the form of a state‐provided Job Guarantee (JG) for people with psychiatric disability. In the absence of measures to generate suitable jobs, forthcoming changes to the eligibility criteria for Disability Support Pension will create risks rather than opportunities. Under the JG, the Federal Government would maintain a ‘buffer stock’ of minimum wage, public sector jobs to provide secure paid employment for this highly disadvantaged group. The role of the state in this alternative model is two fold. First, the state must provide the quantum of JG jobs required. Second, the state must ensure the design of jobs is flexible enough to meet the heterogeneous and variable support needs of workers. This will require effective integration of the JG scheme with mental health, rehabilitation and employment support services.